In July, China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and industrial producer's factory price index (PPI) contracted simultaneously, causing concerns that the economy may fall into a tightening of currency.However, Chinese official media said that China's economic situation does not meet the typical characteristics of currency tightening, and the impact of the CPI phase fall should not exaggerate.
The China Official Media Economic Daily published a comment article on Saturday (August 12), saying that the Chinese economy generally maintains normal growth.From the perspective of various economic indicators and market reflections, although the CPI in July has decreased year -on -year, it has turned to the rise. The current price has been at the bottom. The current price inflection point is expected to be in the year. After August, the CPI is expected to start to rise gradually.
The article says that the phenomenon of negative price increases in the local area, the increase in price increases are temporarily negative, but it should not be simply tightened with the currency.China's GDP increased by 5.5%year -on -year in the first half of the year, significantly faster than 3.0%last year's economic growth, and it was also significantly faster than 4.5%of the past three years. The liquidity also remained reasonable and abundant. At the end of June(M2) The size of the social financing scale, and all loans of RMB have increased year -on -year and remained at a high level.
The article states that whether it is economic growth or currency supply, it does not meet the typical characteristics of currency tightening.Historically, China has also repeatedly experienced CPI -staged downward phenomena, which has not significantly affected the overall trend of macroeconomic operations.
The article said that since this year, the increase in CPI has fallen, which is mainly affected by multiple factors such as input, cyclical factors and high bases in the same period last year.The signal has appeared.Driven by the resumption of service consumption, the core CPI that deduct food and energy prices rose 0.8%year -on -year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the market expectations; the significant recovery of the core CPI in July shows that the consumption demand of Chinese residents is continuing to recover.Essence
But the article admits that we must also see the concerns about shrinking this year, reflecting the lack of attention to the total demand.At present, China's economic operation is facing new difficulties from international and domestic difficulties, the demand for international markets has weakened, and domestic demand is insufficient.It is necessary to better play the basic role of consumer economic growth, to vigorously promote employment and other measures, increase residents' income, implement a series of policies and measures that promote consumption recovery, and enhance the adaptability and flexibility of the supply structure on demand change.
At the end of the article, as the coordination of the stock measures and incremental policies is effective, the supply and demand gap will also be further brought to. In addition, the high base factors in the same period last year will gradually eliminate.The average level, the whole year's CPI shows a U -shaped trend.From the middle and long term, China's total economic supply and demand is basically balanced, the currency conditions are reasonable and moderate, and there is no basis for long -term shrinkage or inflation.
