China ’s youth unemployment rate has broken 20%of innovative high data in April.

The unemployment rate of young people in China has continued to rise. The unemployment rate of young people aged 16 to 24 in April rose to 20.4%, which exceeded 20%for the first time, showing that the employment pressure faced by young people in China became increasingly severe.At the same time, macro numbers also reflect the weakening of the momentum of economic recovery.

A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Fu Linghui, on Tuesday (May 16), pointed out at the press conference that the unemployment rate of the national urban survey in April was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.However, at present, the structural structural problems of China are still relatively outstanding. This year, the number of graduates from college has reached a new high. The unemployment rate of young people is still high. The unemployment rate of labor survey in April 16 to 24 has continued to rise to 20.4%.

This is the highest value since the statistics in 2018, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from March.Previously in July 2022, this number reached 19.9%.

Fu Linghui also said that in the next stage, with the continuous recovery of the economy, especially the service industry has continued to improve, and the employment policy is effective, the employment situation is expected to overall stability.He said that with the gradualness of the policy effect, the employment situation of young people will gradually improve.

On the other hand, the discussion of the Chinese economy has been heating up in the near future. The Central Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics have spoken this week, emphasizing that the current Chinese economy does not have shrinkage, and there will be no shrinkage in the next stage.

Fu Linghui said at a press conference on Tuesday that since this year, the consumer price index (CPI) increased year -on -year increase in the year -on -year decline.But "CPI is mainly influenced by some phased factors."

Fu Linghui emphasized that the current low price operation in China is mainly phased, and there will be no shrinkage in China and the next stage.

The People's Bank of China issued a report on Monday saying that the current Chinese economy has not shrank.According to the report, in the middle and long term, the total supply and demand of China is basically balanced, the monetary conditions are reasonable and moderate, and the residents are expected to stabilize, and there is no basis for long -term contraction or inflation.

Since February of this year, CPI, which reflects consumer prices, has declined for three consecutive months, and CPI has increased by 0.1%year -on -year in April, a new low since February 2021;3.6%, continuously decreased for seven months, and the decline expanded for four consecutive months.This triggered that the risk of Chinese shrinkage is rising.

Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post. Although the price level has continued to fall for three months and has a certain pressure, this is a decline in structural price caused by structural problems, Not a typical shrinkage phenomenon.

Wang Jun said that the recognized shrinkage phenomenon has the characteristics of "two characteristics, one accompaniment", that is, the continuous decline in price levels and the continuous decline in currency supply, accompanied by the economic recession, the current status of China's economic status does not meet the current status of China's economic situation.These characteristics.

He said that the current decline in China's price level is not sustainable and universal. Price rise and falling shows a differentiation phenomenon. Some goods, especially food prices, have fallen, but the service industry is still rising.The growth rate of currency supply (M2) has remained above 12%. At present, it is also in a gentle structural recovery trend after the epidemic. There is no economic recession. These do not meet the standards of judgment.

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday shows that the added value of industrial industries above designated size in April is 5.6%year -on -year, and the growth rate is higher than 3.9%in March, the fastest growth rate since September 2022; society; societyConsumer goods retail sales increased by 18.4%year -on -year, a significant increase of 7.8 percentage points from last month, the fastest increase since March 2021.

However, these two major data are lower than external expectations. Earlier analysts surveyed by Reuters expected that the added value of industries above designated size in China is expected to increase by 10.9%, and retail sales of social consumer goods are expected to increase by 21.0%.

Some economists have a pessimistic attitude towards China's economy.Nomura securities economists believe that with the spread of disappointment, they see that the risk of economic spiral decline is getting greater, leading to weakening economic activity data, rising unemployment rates, sustainable currency, decline in market interest rates, and depreciation of currency.They predict that due to the low base, the year -on -year year -on -year growth of China may still look high, but the growth of a month -on -month growth may occur substantially.

Citi economist said in the report that China is no longer in the best period of re -opening. With the government's decisive action, the hope of further repairing market emotions may be weakening.