The World Health Organization announced the "cancellation of attention" on the epidemic of crown disease last week, marking the official end of this global epidemic disease.The long tail effect may be clearer.

Medical experts refer to the long -term damage caused by crown disease to the health of patients as "Long Covid", that is, patients suffer long -term pain after infection.This long tail effect will also occur at the economic level, and Chinese public opinion calls it "scar effect".The People's Bank of China officials recently quoted the investigation that the epidemic scar effect had not yet faded, and the consumption willingness, especially the consumption demand, took the time to rise.

The scar effect is not terrible. What is worrying is that the consumer market in the early days of the epidemic is only a brief retaliation rebound. The real scar effect will continue to be prominent.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China just announced on Thursday (May 11) just announced the national CPI (residential consumer price index) and PPI (industrial producer factory price index) in April.China's CPI in April rose 0.1%year -on -year, a new low since February 2021, and lower than the market's general expected 0.4%.This is the decline of China's CPI increase for three consecutive months.

In terms of consumers' feelings, it is a good thing that prices cannot rise, but from an economic point of view, it is a police message, which reflects insufficient domestic demand and confirms that the consumer's mentality has changed.Hope to save money, there is not enough confidence in the future.China's current downturn's employment situation must also suppress consumption.

The Chinese government's expected target increase in CPI in 2023 is about 3%, and there is a small gap between reality and official expectations.

In the same month, the PPI of the CPI's advanced indicator decreased by 3.6%year -on -year, the seventh month of consecutive declines, and the decline in the fourth consecutive month, which was higher than expected.Economic analysts pointed out that although China has not entered a typical contraction range, the pressure of "shrinking" is increasing, and the policy is needed to boost the economy.

At present, signals with insufficient domestic demand and weak economic desire are manifested in all aspects, which can be observed from the macro and micro levels.

For example, Chinese customs data released last week showed that the export growth in April slowed down and imports decreased sharply by 7.9%.The Chongqing resident colleagues of our newspaper interviewed on the market. Scenic vendors and homestay operators reported that the actual situation during the May Day holiday is that there are more people's consumption and less consumption, which is at least 30 % different from the turnover before the epidemic.It's good when you just let go. "This situation is manifested in official data, that is, the number of national travel during the May Day increased by 19%compared with 2019, but tourism revenue only increased slightly 0.66%.

To talk about the most vivid interpretation of the degree of economic downturn, many cities have loosened the economy of the floor stalls.The Huaxia Times reported this week that the first -tier city of Shenzhen "the first shot of the revitalizing stall's economy ''. The new regulations clearly allow the street office to start from September.Stall vendor operating venues.

Some Chinese media summarize that Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Kunming, Xiamen, Chengdu and other places have successively issued relevant regulations on the loosening of the stalls this year, and believe that this is given by the "fireworks" conduction effect of Byberzhe barbecue.EssenceHowever, if you follow the time carefully, you can find that before the above -mentioned cities relaxed the restrictions, Zibo barbecue has not yet become popular. Reality is more like the pressure of finding a way for the economy and people's livelihood.

Furthermore, Shenzhen, as an Internet factory, even committed to learning Zibo, it is always ironic.Zibo is a third- and fourth -tier cities. Zibo has become a national Internet celebrity with barbecue and driving the development of the local tourism industry. It is an inspirational story to strive to go upstream. On the contrary, even Shenzhen has begun to develop the ground stall economy, which makes people feel problematic.

The government can lower the figure and allow ordinary people to set up stalls to flexibly employment or subsidize households. It is worthy of recognition. The stall economy can also play a positive role such as convenience and prices, but it cannot expect it to drive the macroeconomic economy.In the final analysis, the stall economy is just a low -level market economy and low -level opening. If China wants to drive the economy by relying on the stalls, it will highlight the government's lack of revitalizing the economy.

Since 2020, almost all countries have suffered from the epidemic, and China is the earliest outbreak. The country with the longest implementation of epidemic prevention policies in defense means that China's "long tail effect" may be longer.EssenceBefore China's epidemic prevention loosening, some experts warned long -term closed control to cause "long -term scars"; especially don't forget that China's economic growth has begun to slow down before the epidemic, and the policy has shifted.Economic downturn and sharp Sino -US competition.

In this context, the global supply chain is accelerating the reorganization. Some large multinational companies or foreign manufacturers have moved their production positions out of China under the consideration of geopolitical security or political pressure.Moving production business.Apple's latest flagship product iPhone was produced in India last year.Morgan Chase estimates that by 2025, a quarter of the iPhone will be produced in India.

If China is no longer a world economic growth, and no longer the market that other countries cannot be separated, its international influence will also be directly affected. Therefore, China cannot withstand the long -term economic non -economic results.The good news is that the International Monetary Fund predicts that China's economic growth rate is expected to reach 5.2%this year. On the contrary, the U.S. economic outlook is poor and the US dollar is depreciating. The first quarter exports of neighboring economies such as South Korea and Vietnam have decreased more than double -digit.Perhaps in 2023, everyone needs not to have a high -speed growth, but who can keep their vitality more.

In the second half of last year, analysts commented that the damage caused to the Chinese economy in the next three years was just a fall or severe fracture?Just did a nightmare or a permanent scar?Entering May, this problem sounded in people's minds. Although everyone was no longer a nightmare, it was still uneasy about the future.