The horn of Taiwan's 2024 presidential election campaign has sounded.All kinds of public opinion is in full swing.Compared with the Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang candidate has not yet clearly clarified. The mayor of New Taipei, known as the "strongest hens" of the Kuomintang, has not expressed his statement, making the Kuomintang supporters anxious.
However, this situation has changed recently, Hou Youyi's attitude has begun to change, and the Kuomintang candidates are about to come out.
After the Kuomintang won in November last November, the entire party focused on the 2024 presidential election campaign.However, after experiencing the split of the party in the 2020 presidential candidate nominations in 2020, this blue camp candidate was more careful to wait for the Party Central Committee to formulate nomination methods to avoid repeating the mistakes of the year.
Hou Youyi, who is considered the most likely to make the Taiwan government from green to blue, wait for the Kuomintang to recruit the mayor to "run" and "run" to choose the president.He also turned himself into a "outsider" and was unwilling to make more statements in the president.Whenever he was asked about the incident, he responded vaguely with "Hou Hou as a generation" (doing great things), "the time is quiet", and was unwilling to touch more sensitive cross -strait or international issues.
From "good years" to "willing to dedicate to the people"
Enter 2023, the image of this "outsider" has begun to change.
At the New Year's Day flag -raising ceremony in January this year, Hou Youyi, who has always rarely talked about international issues, shouted during his speech, "We (Taiwan) is definitely not a chess piece of a strong country."Hand -style.However, when asked which country the "strong country" refers to, Hou Youyi did not respond positively, only saying that "Taiwan's most important thing is to make the Taiwan Strait and East Asia stable."
In mid -March, the Kuomintang's "Central Campaign Strategy Association" was fell into a black gold storm for the Kuomintang.Posted, rarely spoke about the reform of the internal affairs and party affairs: "Reject black gold appears in any political party, and the people will not accept black gold to reproduce in any form."
Hou Youyi wrote, "At present, it is the international situation.An important moment when the wind rises and the country's internal affairs need to be cleaned up. No political parties should be abducted by black gold. What the political parties do must meet the expectations of the people. The black gold cannot be restored.
On Wednesday (22nd), when Hou Youyi was asked if he was running for the president, he made the most clear statement so far, saying that he has only been engaged in public office for more than 40 years, and his life has only one goal, and he will always maintain forever and always maintain it.His unchanged intention, "As long as he is willing to contribute to the country and the people's greatest contribution and dedication, this is what everyone should do."
Although Hou Youyi did not explicitly say that he would run for president, from "quiet years" to "not being a strong country", to "willing to dedicate to the people", these starting styles are tellingIn the outside world, he is already running for the president.
The strongest hens of the Kuomintang suffers from Waterloo?
Some analysts believe that the driving force behind Hou Youyi's attitude change is the change of the blue -green basic disk.
The Presidential Selection of the President's President ’s President’ s Police in February this year shows that Hou Youyi has greatly ahead of 29 % of the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde with 38.7 %, and 17.8 % of the party candidate Ke Wenzhe.
However, the polls announced by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation on Tuesday (21st) show that Lai Qingde overtake Hou Youyi 24.8 % with 36.2 %.28.8 %, the Kuomintang's support plummeted 9.2 percentage points to 17.9 % compared with February.
The polls announced by China Guang Gallop on March 10 also showed similar results: Lai Qingde's support with Zheng Wencan, the deputy dean of the Executive Yuan, was 36.45 %, which was higher than that of Ke Wenzhe with Guo Taiming's 23.59 % of the 23.59 % of Guo Taiming's 23.59 %.And Hou Youyi with Zhu Lilun's 18.23 %.The polls released by Zhen Media on March 15 showed that Lai Qingde supported 27.8 % of Hou Youyi with 39.3 % support and 18.2 % of Ke Wenzhe.
The results of these polls are pointing to a situation: Hou Youyi's polls are encountering Waterloo, and the atmosphere of "removed the DPP" gradually dissipated in Taiwan.
This is closely related to the recent series of controversy around the Kuomintang.On March 5 of this year, the Kuomintang swallowed the defeat in the election of the legislators of the iron ticket Cangnan.This election that should have been a stable voucher was lost, and the party criticized the sound. Hou Youyi was arrested for "war criminals" for the KMT candidate Lin Mingzhang's platform for the day before Nantou's election.
Just as the Kuomintang was still trapped in the vortex of the defeat, Lai Qingde completed the registration of the Democratic Progressive President's primary election on March 15 to end the Democratic Progressive Party's three -game losing streak.Because he is the only registrar, he can basically determine that Lai Qingde will be president on behalf of the Democratic Progressive Party, laying his position as a status.
On the other hand, there is no consensus on the nomination system of the presidential candidate in the Kuomintang. Hou Youyi, who is the strongest candidate, has not announced the election, which has exacerbated the anxiety of the Kuomintang supporters.
After finally waiting for the Kuomintang to set up a selection meeting to start the nomination procedure, the list of selection meetings announced on Wednesday (15th) actually found the "Hualien King" Fu Kunzheng and bribery because of the shares.Li Quanjiao, who was convicted, was responsible for nomination assignments, which caused concerns about "black gold restoration" and was ironically "giving gifts" by the Democratic Progressive Party.
Faced with the controversy that broke out successively, and the pressure of polls continuously, Hou Youyi and Zhu Lilun may both realize that they cannot continue to delay. They must set the overall situation as soon as possible and stabilize the military heart.
According to the Taiwan United Daily News reported on Thursday (23), Hou Youyi's core staff revealed that Hou Youyi's election in 2024 presidential elections became increasingly clear. The key turning point was the "black gold storm" in the Kuomintang.
The staff member said that although Hou Youyi believed that the polls were "floating clouds", the continuous decline poll caused his concerns.
Zhongguang News Network also quoted people familiar with the matter on Tuesday that Hou Youyi originally planned to wait until mid -June until the end of the New Taipei City Council's inquiry.The timing will not be announced in May.
At the same time, Zhu Lilun also announced on Wednesday that he would decide the presidential candidate by a call method. This was considered to be able to solve Hou Youyi, who was stuck in the term of office of the mayor of New Taipei.
However, the joint newspaper with a blue political position published a comment article on Thursday, saying that the latest poll of the TVBS poll center shows that the support of Taichung mayor Lu Xiuyan reached 67 %.More than 61 % of Hou Youyi, Hou Youyi is no longer the absolute candidate for the Kuomintang.
In addition, if the presidential candidate is determined by the recruitment method, Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai, who retired from the party in 2019, will also have the opportunity to run for the president.The Kuomintang said that even if Guo Taiming returned to the party recently, he would not be able to fight for presidential nominations because of relevant regulations.Therefore, the Kuomintang decided to recruit a call method. If the final evaluation believes that Guo Taiming has the most successful chances, he can give Guo Taiming party membership and solve the problem of returning the party by recruitment.
Can Hou Youyi stir up 2024 Presidential election?
The Kuomintang's presidential candidate has not been concluded, but some observers believe that Hou Youyi's ability to stir up the election cannot be underestimated.
DPP former legislator Shen Fuxiong described that Hou Youyi was a "tiger in the cage".He said that the Democratic Progressive Party's eight -year governance has accumulated many hatred values. Even if the Kuomintang polls continue to decline, the Kuomintang and the People's Party's support are still much greater than that of the DPP.
But Guo Zhengliang, a former legislator and well -known current affairs commentator of the Democratic Progressive Party, believes that the most important thing for a election is the campaign process. During this period, the support and perception of Hou Youyi will change.He pointed out that Chen Shizhong, an avant -garde -welfare minister who was running for the mayor of Taipei last year, pointed out that Chen Shizhong's polls were still high before the election, but he was seriously injured and defeated by problems such as vaccine procurement during the campaign.
Guo Zhengliang believes that the general inquiry of New Taipei City on April 25 will be Hou Youyi's critical moment. If Hou Youyi will not be able to cope with issues such as the aggressive cross -strait, military, security, etc.Will be re -created.
Because Hou Youyi rarely expresses international issues so far, it is not clear that his position on cross -strait issues.There are also media reports that former Taiwan President Ma Ying -jeou believes that Hou Youyi's cross -strait discussion is insufficient, so he found the former Secretary -General of the National Security Council Su Qi and the professor of Tamkang University Zhao Chunshan and others to "tutor" Hou Youyi.
Peng Jinpeng, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of Taiwan University, said that Hou Youyi has a high support rate, but he has no international, diplomacy, cross -strait experience, and has weak discussions on issues such as conflict between China and the United States, and Taiwan's international status."There are still things that the DPP does not deal with, such as labor insurance is urgent, (Hou Youyi) Is there the courage to accept challenges?"
Peng Jinpeng believes that if the Kuomintang has not successfully integrated the non -green alliance, Hou Youyi may not necessarily know how much he will.Victory, even election, may not be done well.
From the perspective of Hou Youyi's recent attitude, he hopes to run for election.It is not easy to put down this burden and go to the election directly.But for this former "outsider", how to deal with international geopolitical issues is a greater problem for the current dilemma of cross -strait.
