The loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) announced on Tuesday (20) has remained unchanged.Following the continuous introduction of the stable growth policy, the Chinese economy showed signs of recovery in August. However, the downturn in the property market and the continued pressure of epidemics constituted pressure on the economic prospects, and subsequent LPRs had further reduced expectations.
According to Bloomberg, China's one -year LPR remains unchanged at 3.65%, and the five -year LPR holds a stable of 4.3%.Among the economists participating in Bloomberg's survey before, only one of them predicted that one -year and five -year periods would be reduced.
Xing Zhaopeng, a senior Chinese strategist at the Australian and New Bank, analyzed in the interview that LPR remained unchanged. After the interest rate cut in August, the Chinese official will observe the data before the next policy measure.Quickly, it is believed that the possibility of subsequent LPRs has further reduced, especially for five -year interest rates.
The data such as China ’s industrial added value in August last week was better than expected. The National Bureau of Statistics of China said that“ the national economy continued to restore the development trend in August, and the main indicators have changed positive. ”However, exports are still weak, and the downturn in the real estate market has no signs of relief.Bloomberg survey shows that economists have lowered China's growth forecast for China's growth to 3.5%this year.
In addition, the state -owned bank generally lowered the deposit interest rate last week. Analysts believe that this has relieved the pressure of poly difference between bank liabilities and relieves the pressure of poly differences and creates room for the continued decline in loan interest rates.Zhong Linnan, a senior macro analyst at Guangfa Securities, believes that as long as the economy still has stable growth, LPR and loan interest rates may continue to decline, only the issue of time and rhythm.
After the interest rate of LPR was announced, the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds fell less than 1 basis point, and the price of Treasury bond futures rose at the same time.The People's Bank of China today increased its inverse repurchase to 24 billion yuan, and maintained 2 billion yuan in 7 days to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter.
The People's Bank of China has continued to reduce the MLF overplay this month and maintains interest rates.Wang Qing, the financial Times, director of the central bank, previously quoted Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the MLF interest rate in September remained unchanged, which means that the basis of the LPR quotation of the month has not changed. At the same timeThe probability of Monthly LPR quotation remains unchanged.
Since the beginning of this year, the 5 -year LPR linked to the mortgage interest rate has reduced 35 basis points, while the one -year LPR has decreased by 15 basis points.In August 2019, the People's Bank of China announced the reform and improvement of the LPR formation mechanism and demanded that the new loan was linked to it. The interest rate was formed by the 18 quotes on the basis of MLF interest rate. The minimum quotation was 5 basis points.
