China
Special
The strongest high temperature weather in 60 years is sweeping southern China,
Many landscapes are all unless,
Multiple industries have also been impacted due to electricity limit,
Well worsening the Chinese economy that is originally under pressure.
What is the difference between this year's electric shortage?
Is extreme weather a new normal challenge for the economy?
How do the influential operators respond?
The Ledshan Grand Buddha, located at the Jiaojia River intersect at the intersection of the rivers, exposed all the "true body" due to the decline in water level.The torrential rivers under the eyes of the Buddha were also replaced by some exposed river beds.
At the same time, Poyang Lake, China's largest freshwater lake in Jiangxi Province, has also lost weight under drought. The near shore of water grass becomes "grassland", and the bottom of the lake in the depths is cracking like Gobi.
According to the monitoring of the Central Meteorological Observatory of China, in the past month, nearly half of China has been covered by high temperature weather above 35 degrees Celsius, and more than 200 national observation stations have broken through the highest temperature historical value.The most serious high -temperature incident in this 60 years has not only made people's familiar landscapes, but also caused unexpected impacts on multiple industries, and also worsened the Chinese economy that was already under pressure.
Sichuan, as a large energy province, is the first victim of extreme weather.In July, China's average precipitation was 96.6 mm, which was 20.6 % less than the same period of the year. The average precipitation in Sichuan Province fell 50 % year -on -year.Hydropower accounted for 85 % of the power generation in Sichuan Province, much higher than 17 % of the country.Highly dependent on hydropower, so that Sichuan's power supply suddenly eats tightly under water shortage; hot weather causes residents to increase air -conditioning to cool down, which exacerbates power shortage from the demand side.
In addition, due to the insufficient construction of the Sichuan -high -speed power grid, it is impossible to receive electrical energy transmission in a short distance in the short term, which makes it difficult for other areas to transport the surplus power to the power shortage area.
In order to ensure people's livelihood power, the Sichuan Provincial Government requested all industrial power users in the orderly power use scheme in the power grid on August 14 to comprehensively discontinue production for six days.On August 20, the official announced the extension of the power limit cycle to the 25th.Chongqing, adjacent to Sichuan, also announced that "high temperature leave" for industrial enterprises to the 24th during the same period.
The range of influence from battery to grain production electricity shortage is wide
Sichuan and Chongqing are important places for Chinese lithium battery materials and power batteries.The headquarters of China Lithium Lithium and Lithium Salt Giants such as Tianqi Lithium and Yahua Group are in Sichuan. The two major power battery lead companies have set up large -scale production bases in Yibin and Chongqing in Yibin and Chongqing.Sichuan -Chongqing's power limit time is extended, directly impacting the production of the above -mentioned enterprises. The downstream smartphones, laptops, and industrial supply chains such as new energy vehicles are also blocked.
In the past two weeks, the Sichuan -Chongqing factory of FAW Toyota, FAW -Volkswagen, Changan Automobile and other car companies has suspended production due to electricity limit. In addition, some parts suppliers have also been produced by vehicle production. Electric vehicle giant TeslaFor this reason for the official Shanghai officials.
On August 18, a public letter from the Shanghai Economic and Information Commission sent to the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economic and Information Technology circulated on the Internet.It is mentioned that because 16 auto parts such as Chengdu Yinli cannot produce in full volume, the shortage of parts and components such as SAIC Group and Tesla and other OEMs are hoped that Sichuan officials will prioritize the power needs of the above suppliers.
In addition to batteries and cars, this round of electricity limit has also led to a decrease in metal and fertilizers.The aluminator Zhongfu Industrial issued an announcement on August 14 that the Sichuan subsidiary was forced to discontinue production for one week due to electricity limit, which will lead to the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production by about 12,300 tons, and the company's net profit decreases by 78 million yuan (RMB, the same below, 1584, 1584, 1584, 1584Wan Xinyuan).The fertilizer producer Lotianhua is expected to have a power limit for reducing urea production by about 3.5 tons and a methanol reduction of about 10,000 tons.
High -temperature drought directly affects food production.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the food output of the five provinces and one city affected by the drought was about one -quarter of China's grain output last year.Yao Shujie, a professor of economics at Chongqing University, pointed out in the interview with Lianhe Morning Post that although the drought in various places is expected to be quickly alleviated, the production of food production is seasonal. If the water supply is insufficient during the dumping period, it may affect the overall output and quality.
In order to ensure the safety of food, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural China has sent a working group to key provinces affected by high temperature and drought.The State Council's executive meeting hosted by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang on August 24 also promised that the central government's reserve fee was 10 billion yuan, focusing on supporting Chinese rice to resist drought.The meeting also requested to quickly study and promote the harvest of the late rice, and pointed out that the central government has continued to support it.
This round of movies is not as good as last year
China's last round of large -scale electrical shortage occurred in the third quarter of last year.At that time, the Yangtze River Delta manufacturing industry was forced to suspend production on a large scale, resulting in the increase in the Chinese economy in the season to the lowest of 4.9 % in a year.
Analysts generally believe that the duration of power limit for this round is short, and the scope and degree of influence are less than last year.However, when the Chinese economy faces multiple pressures this year, the sudden electric shortage of electricity in this round has undoubtedly made the hope of the annual economic growth rate of 5.5 % more slim.
According to statistics from CICC, from August 1st to 17th, 26 listed companies issued a production limitation announcement, less than 46 in September 2021.According to the CICC Report, the affected enterprises can make up for the preliminary impact through rushing work. It is expected that the overall impact of this round of electricity limit for industrial production is far less than the same period last year.
Senior researcher (guest), a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore, analyzed in an analysis in an interview that last year, electric shortage was due to the rise in the demand for high coal prices.More closely.In addition, this round of electrical shortage mainly impacts the Sichuan -Chongqing area, which has been small on the southeast coastal manufacturing industry and has a limited scope of impact.
There is a middleAccording to national media reports, in the Yangtze River Delta regions such as Nanjing, Kunshan, and Yiwu, the manufacturers have recently shortened production time due to electricity limit.However, according to this newspaper to the above -mentioned three places, the number of affected companies is limited, and most enterprises have not received notice of electricity limit or discontinued production.
High -temperature weather in many places in China has gradually eased with heavy rainfall from August 24.The Sichuan Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning of heavy rain on the same day. The provincial flood prevention and drought resistance command also issued an emergency notice to request a good part of the local short -term heavy rainfall prevention.The drought seemed to come to an end, but the crisis caused by extreme weather was not completely lifted.
Scholars: Epidemic seal control measures to greater economic shocks
Yao Shujie pointed out that extreme weather is often accompanied by each other. After experiencing extremely high temperature in summer, it may usher in ultra -low temperature weather in winter. The rise in heating needs will lead to a new wave of energy shortage.The new normal to deal with each year. "
But at the same time, he emphasized that compared with the short -term interference caused by extreme climate, the large -scale sealing caused by frequent occurrence of crown disease is the biggest challenge facing the Chinese economy this year."The impact of extreme weather is local, and the virus is spreading nationwide. Enterprise production is limited, and the public dares not to travel and consume, making it difficult for domestic circulation to operate. Increased epidemic prevention expenditure has led to a decrease in local fiscal revenue, and the government has no money to invest.All of the above influences are much more serious than extreme climate. "
Sichuan -Chongqing thermal power suppression energy transformation reversing
The lack of hydropower has prompted Sichuan and Chongqing to make up for thermal power, causing concerns about energy transformation and driving, and the "double carbon" policy that China has pushed to face greater challenges.
According to the Sichuan Daily, in the summer of the summer, the Sichuan thermal power plant basically operated at the lowest load, and the proportion of power generation generally was less than 10 %.However, this year's reservoirs in multiple hydropower stations are rarely "anti -dried during the flood season". In order to supplement the hydropower gap, 67 fire power plants in the province "full firepower" was "full of firepower". Last Monday (August 22), the proportion of power generation rose to about 25 %.Essence
At the same time, Sichuan also increases local coal reserves with multiple prongs.China National Energy Group said on August 18 that coal of Shaanxi, Gansu, and Xinjiang is being transported into Sichuan -Chongqing regions to ensure the demand for coal consumption of local power plants.The first national large -scale coal reserve base in Guang'an, Sichuan, also launched it on the 19th.
You Daoli, member of the Party Committee and Deputy Director of the Sichuan Provincial SASAC, said at the launching ceremony that the characteristics of the local energy structure "more water, vitality, lack of coal, and less oil" have led to 80 million tonsAbove, the conflict between seasonal and structural energy supply and demand is very prominent, and it is imminent to crack the dilemma of energy safety.
Li Shuo, a senior policy consultant of the International Environment Organization, pointed out that the current climate change is caused by the slow global energy transformation, and extreme weather is in turn endangered the supply of energy, prompting countries to rely on fossil energy and form a vicious circle.
Lee Shuo analyzes that compared with the third quarter of last year, this round of electric shortage is closer to the winter of 2020.At that time, due to the advance in the winter, the temperature of the temperature was too low to promote heating electricity, and Hunan, which is also a clean energy province, caused a shortage of electricity in Hunan, which is also a clean energy province, had to limit the power to the power.
After that round of electricity shortage, Hunan began to increase thermal power plant; Li Shuo was worried that such a scene would also appear after Sichuan Electric Wilderness in this round."In order to avoid political risks caused by electricity limit, local officials may choose to build a thermal power plant to bottom out, but therefore ignores the waste of resources caused by excessive supply during the non -peak period. Such a short -sighted approach may be a crisis into the next crisis."
China made a promise of carbon neutrality in 2060 in September 2020 to make carbon dioxide emissions in 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, and accelerate the use of renewable energy to replace coal power.However, the three rounds of electrical shortage occurred in the past two years, which caused the "double carbon" action resistance.
Supply can be guaranteed through energy diversification and more flexible power distribution
Lin Dawei, a senior researcher (guest), a senior researcher (guest) of the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore, suggested that China through energy diversification to solve the risk of excessive relying on single energy in some regions.He pointed out that China has mastered the clean coal technology (CCT), and if it can be promoted at a national coal power plant at a lower cost, it can effectively reduce environmental pollution.In addition, although natural gas and nuclear energy, such as natural gas and nuclear energy, can also be used to replace low -carbon energy from coal power.
Li Shuo believes that the efficiency of relying on the construction of power plants to ensure that energy supply is too low, and should be "hard and hard". While advancing the construction of infrastructure, the existing power system layout is improvedMechanisms, and enhance the connectivity of electricity transmission between regions, so that electricity can circulate between more provinces.
"China has made the people aware of the extreme weather caused by climate change in the past two summer. But whether this can sound alarm bells for the decision -making layer and promote the adjustment of energy structure, it still needs to be seen."
Electricity limits the confidence in the settlement of enterprises
Sichuan and Chongfeng announced in mid -August announced that the industrial power limit time was up to 11 days, and automobiles, electronics and semiconductor companies were affected.The interviewing enterprise in Chongqing's expected drought limit will soon alleviate, but worrying that the unstable energy supply will affect the confidence of domestic and foreign enterprises to lay out the future of the Chengyu region.
Chongqing logistics industry Zheng Chong (pseudonym) told Lianhe Morning Post that the current "impact of not too great impact on Chongqing Industry" on the power limit order, but if it is extended again, most manufacturers may face time delivery issues.
Wu Shi, President of the Chongqing Branch of the Singapore Chamber of Commerce in China, said in an interview that Singapore did not have many manufacturing companies landed in Sichuan and Chongqing, and industrial electricity limited was "not too big" for new enterprises.He pointed out that the main influence of this power limit is the shopping malls of Singaporean developers in Chengdu and Chongqing. The reason is that a large number of people returned home to work at home due to office restrictions, and their outburst decreased.
Chongqing official last Monday (August 22) urgently required 580 shopping malls to shorten its business hours and alleviate power supply tensions. Chongqing Baffles, a subsidiary of Singapore Camp Group, was also affected.
Chongqing Baffles was questioned that in order to respond to the official call, the mall adjusted the business hours of the shopping mall and observation deck from 4 pm to 9 pm from Monday.With the relief of high temperature weather, the shopping mall will return to normal business hours from Saturday (27th).
Zheng Chong believes that when the domestic consumption continues to be sluggish, the mall is forced to shorten its business hours, has a worse impact on the economy, and has a wider range -in addition to retail consumption and domestic tourism, "it will definitely affect the logistics industry and transportation"" ".
Chongqing logistics operator Tang Yuan (pseudonym), which operates the Central European trains (Chongqing Europe) business, also said in an interview that the amount of transportation has been impacted by the crown disease and the Russian and Ukraine War before."The factory is affected, the shipment is slow, and the shipment is small, which will affect the logistics and the demand for the freight of the aquarium will also be reduced." He revealed that the company's freight volume has fallen by 10 % in the past month.
Zhou Yixin, an entrepreneur who runs popular tourist attractions in Chongqing, evaluated in an interview that this summer, the rebound of electricity and epidemic in Chongqing's economy and tourism is a double blow. The negative impact is very large.confidence.
Repeated epidemic and extreme weather pinching operators expect market confidence to recover for the time being
Zhou Yixin said that in July and August, Chongqing ushered in a large number of tourists. The performance of the attractions continued to rebound, but the long -term extreme high temperature superimposed electricity limit was also available. At present, the shop can only open the door after 4 pm."This week has been very painful recently ... We have basically stopped business, and the merchants have also closed, and all our companies have worked at home. BasicallyBusiness) All stop."
However, Zhou Yixin expects that with the cooling of the next week, "this problem should be eliminated in about 10 days."He also pointed out that the energy resources of Sichuan -Chongqing areas are rich in energy, and commercial power is believed to not be disturbed for a long time.
Zhou Yixin is not very optimistic about the prospects of the tourism industry in the second half of Sichuan and Chongqing.He said that the current industry is more worried about the uncertainty caused by the control of the epidemic.In this round of extreme weather and the repeated epidemic, consumers and businesses have been worried. The market confidence is difficult to recover before the end of the year.
Zheng Chong believes that the long -term impact of Sichuan and Chongqing drought limit is deeper, because it shows that China is currently facing climate change. At the same time, there is no clear and long -term solution to energy shortage.This will lead to more companies re -evaluating whether to invest in Sichuan and Chongqing. Before settlement, more considering electricity use problems, and to a certain extent, the Chengdu -Chongqing Economic Circle as the fourth pole of China's economic growth.
He also said that enterprises may pay close attention to whether the central government has introduced more policies in the future to ensure stability of power supply in Sichuan and Chongqing.
