China
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Southeast Asia
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2022 series seven
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The rising star after the Southeast Asian economy has risen in the Sino -US trade war, and then benefited from the China Clean Zero resistance. In the first quarter of this year, the total exports surpassed Shenzhen.
What is the sky that supports "Made in Vietnam"?Can "Made in Vietnam" replace "Made in China"?This newspaper visited the Vietnamese industrial zone on the spot.
"Vietnam exports beyond Shenzhen", "Li Ka -shing heavy bet on Ho Chi Minh City" and "Vietnam or the next China" and other topics. In recent months, it has attracted attention at the Chinese public opinion field, igniting some public opinion to the Vietnamese manufacturing industry may shake the Chinese worldThe anxiety of the factory's dominant status.
Western media focuses on China's persistence of coronary diseases, which leads to the transfer of export orders and benefits Vietnam a lot.Frankfurt in Germany reported that in June this year, it was published in an article entitled "Goodbye China, Hello Vietnam", saying that for manufacturers in Asia, "Vietnam seems to be better and cheaper China."
Vietnam's total exports in the second quarter of this year increased by 21 % year -on -year, and the economy increased by 7.7 %, a 11 -year high, and finally got out of the dark period last year.Vietnam across the country, including Capital Hanoi. Last year, the city was closed, and the economy shrinks by 6.2 % in the third quarter.
The Vietnamese government has changed the "coexistence with the virus" route to promote the popularity of the entire population. After the factory fully resumes and opens the country, the economy has rebounded quickly.In addition, it is strongly compared with China's strict prevention of clearance prevention and prevention, and Vietnam has been held as a "super factory" by some international media as a manufacturing "super factory" from south to Peking University.
Vietnam is the preferred "China +1"
The owner and executives of Vietnamese foreign companies interviewed by Lianhe Zaobao both pointed out that before the outbreak of the crown disease, the Sino -US trade war that started at the end of 2018 has allowed Vietnam to collect the advantages of fishermen.The risk of supply chain has settled in another factory in Vietnam, or transferred orders to Vietnam.
Vietnam is connected to Chinese land, plus more than 3,000 kilometers of coastline to facilitate shipping logistics, forming an excellent strategic location.In addition, cheap labor, youthful population, preferential policies of the government, signing a free trade agreement with multiple countries, and the source of China and the United States have all made this Central South Peninsula country the first choice for enterprises to implement the "China and One" strategy.
Hong Kong Enterprise Fengzhuo Company is one of the foreign companies that are decentralized to set up factories in Vietnam.
The company's director Wang Qijian said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post, about an hour and a half from Hanoi, saying that in China for more than 20 years in China, Vietnam is similar to the Chinese system."We are easier to adapt."
Fengzhuo is mainly based on production toys and setting automated production lines. There are two factories in Chang'an Town, Dongguan, China. The factory building established in Vietnam -Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) in Haiyang Province was completed at the end of 2019. In March 2020Investment.The rough division of labor between the two places is that the Chinese factory produces high -end technology products, and simple products are processed by the Vietnamese factory.
Fengzhuo's factories in Vietnam can be said to be driven by customers.Wang Qijian said that many customers have shifted their focus to Southeast Asia from three or four years ago, and newly defined the supply chain.
"They depend on whether the supplier has factories in different countries. They are worried that there will be problems in some places to cause the supply chain to break the chain. Suppliers set up factories in different countries, which is more secure."
The Sino -US trade war has led to the first wave of industrial transfer in recent years.
China's clearing policy may benefit Vietnam
The outside world is concerned that China ’s clearing resistance has caused more than many days to stop working. Once a foreign company or Chinese -funded enterprise shifts positions, can Vietnam taste the second wave of“ China +1 ”sweetness?
Yuetong reported that Vietnam ’s direct investment in foreign direct investment in the first quarter of this year reached US $ 7.7 billion (about S $ 10.8 billion), an increase of 7.8 % year -on -year.In terms of exports, the total amount exceeds Shenzhen up to $ 27.75 billion.Among them, the gap between the data in March was more than twice that of Shenzhen, reaching 34.62 billion US dollars.
Singapore Shengke Urban Development Company has long participated in the management of Vietnam -Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP).The first VSIP was opened in 1996, and there are 10 VSIPs in Vietnam.
CEO of Shengke Urban Development Company and co -chairman of VSIP Zhao Wancheng's email responded to this newspaper that as of December 31, 2021, VSIP attracted 850 companies to settle in, with a total investment of 15.6 billion US dollars.In the four years from 2017 to 2021, 104 new enterprises were added with a new investment of 400 million US dollars.
Zhao Wancheng said that since mainland Chinese companies can invest in Vietnam in different channels, including the parent country of foreign companies through Hong Kong and the mainland, and joint ventures with Vietnamese companies, it is difficult to estimate how much investment originated from mainland China. "The source of investment in Vietnam in the past few years ".
He also said that VSIP has indeed received more contacts about investing in Vietnam, "but not sure whether it is related to the Chinese epidemic."
Jian Zhiming, President of the Taiwan Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, also said that recently discussed the increase in Taiwanese -funded enterprises invested in Vietnam, which is higher than in the past, including Taiwanese businessmen in the mainland.He said: "If the factory stops production because of the epidemic, the boss must continue to pay salary, interest and loans. Which company can bear it?"
Jian Zhiming was interviewed by this newspaper in Tongna Industrial Zone about an hour and a half from Ho Chi Minh City.The construction company headquarters founded more than 10 years ago was located in Tongna. It was a region that attracted traditional industries such as textile factories and shoe factories, as close to Pingyang Province, and many of them were transferred from China.
About four or five years ago, industries transferred from China due to the risk of supply chain in the Sino -US trade war were headed by the electronics industry, and manufacturers were concentrated in northern Vietnam centered on Hanoi.
Vietnam's land is narrow. Under the circumstances of the industrial system and the industrial chain, the north has the advantages close to China. Electronics manufacturers can clearly clear through the Sino -Vietnamese land border and quickly follow from the China -Vietnam land border.The southeast coastal companies obtain the required parts and raw materials.
The mobile phone industry, such as South Korea, Samsung and Apple royal founder Foxconn, continuously built factories in the north, and large -scale electronics manufacturers such as peaceful and Weichuang in Taiwan are also investing in.China Xiaomi confirmed two weeks ago that it has begun to produce smartphones in Vietnam.Many electronic factories gather together to make Vietnam a manufacturing center outside China.
It is also headache to grab the Chinese order
However, a crown disease is popular and exposed the vulnerability of this cross -border industrial chain.
Vietnam's process -oriented manufacturing upstream supply chain continues to depend on China. Most of the "Made in Vietnam" is the assembly and packaging of "Made in China". The finished product of "Made in Vietnam" is finally exported to the European and American markets.
The problem is that once the transportation from China to Vietnam is blocked, Vietnam's ability to ship as a middle and lower reaches will be greatly restricted.At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic led to the limited transportation of China -Vietnam land. Samsung had to transport mobile phone parts from China to Vietnam to resolve the crisis of supply chain interruption.
Jian Zhiming said that the orders for full hands in Yue Taiwanese are also unhappy.It hurts to pick up orders, and it hurts. "
Manufacturers seek semi -finished products "localization"
Wang Qijian's toy factory also faced the same problem after the Lunar New Year this year, and was forced to change the sea or air road to transport semi -finished products from China to Vietnam. However, all manufacturers thought of going one by one, causing high tension of sea and air transportation.
The crisis stimulated new thinking, Wang Qijian decided to start the semi -finished product "localization" to slow down the heavy pressure caused by the upstream disconnection to the downstream.
He said that in the past, it was made from a semi -finished product in Dongguan's own factory to the Vietnamese factory to complete the assembly. NextTo the end.
Lin Mingjie, President of Singapore Chamber of Commerce in Ho Chi Minh City, is the Asia -Pacific president of a foreign industrial knife company.He said in an interview with this newspaper in Ho Chi Minh City that the company was also troubled by the supply chain during the epidemic.He decided to decentralize risks and order raw materials from countries and regions outside China and other countries and regions such as Thailand, Taiwan, India, and finally passed the difficulties.
"I believe many factories like us will continue to find raw materials that can be replaced outside China."
Vietnam is difficult to shake the world's world factory domineering status
If manufacturers in Vietnam have been seeking localization of raw materials, when the supply chain of multiple industries is mature and growing, can Vietnam rise to the next world factory?
The owner of the interviewed enterprise and executives said in unison: "Impossible."
Lin Mingjie pointed out that the industry's transfer from China does not only shift to Vietnam, as well as India and Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, etc."Who can replace China? Many countries add up to replace one China."
He said that nearly 100 million people in Vietnam are less than 10 % of China, and the middle class has grown rapidly. The cost of quickly pushing up wages must be shifted from mature areas to backward regions. China's development trajectory is from the east to the central and western parts.Migration, but Vietnam is not so big.
According to Jian Zhiming's long -term observation, China's one -stop industry chain is very complete, and its organizational power is better than Vietnam.In the early days of Vietnam, only the pollution section abandoned by China in the traditional industrial supply chain. Recently, the electronics industry has shifted to Vietnam, and it is still mainly low -end.
And, even if Chinese labor costs are higher than Vietnam, the handicrafts and skills of Chinese workers are far above Vietnam.Vietnamese are as diligent as the Chinese, but they are different.Jian Zhiming described: "If the Vietnamese people say that they are destined, the Chinese just don't die."
Jayant Menon, a senior researcher at Yosov Isaov Isaev Isa Easa East South Asia Singapore, analyzed in an analysis in an interview that the sealing measures taken by China for clearing the epidemic have indeed accelerated the supply chain to Vietnam, but the regional supply chain is stillCentered on China, as well as the foreseeable future.He said: "China is still a manufacturing giant and will not be easily curbed or replaced."
(This issue is the end of the Southeast Asian Wall capital in 2022)
Insufficient talent constraints Vietnam to high -end advanced
Since Vietnam's DOI MOI has been promoted by China in 1986, under the tide of economic globalization, it only took a generation of people to develop from poor countries to middle -income economies.
But Vietnam is unwilling to do foundry. In 2021, it established a long -term development strategic goal. By 2030, it will become developing countries with modern industries and reaching medium income levels. By 2045, it will become high -income developed countries.
The Vietnamese government also approves the strategy of foreign investment cooperation in 2021 to 2030. The first goal is to attract high -tech and high value -added projects, and better connect with international production chains and supply chains.
Lin Mingjie evaluated that Vietnam wants to advance to high -end industries. "It can't be done in 10 years". The biggest shortcoming is the shortage of talents, and the education system for cultivating talents can be established overnight.
Automation into Vietnam's way out
He said that Vietnam lacks professional and technical personnel. A foreign factory wants to recruit 100 engineers and receive a 2,000 job search letter. It is "no engineer can't find it" because it cannot meet the admission standards.From 2016 to 2020, Vietnam's minimum wage rose 7.4 % per year. From July 1 this year, the minimum wage standard was 6 %.
Li Zheyu, general manager of Taiwan Weiguang Group interviewed by this newspaper, believes that Vietnam has no labor cost competitiveness compared with some Southeast Asian countries and India.
He judged that Vietnam's manufacturing industry must grab talents with the service industry within five to 10 years. The phenomenon of "difficulty in recruiting" is difficult to crack. The way out of foreign companies is to promote the automation or transfer of Vietnamese factories to other countries.Weiguang's business is mainly gift trade and production. Both factories in China and Vietnam are currently deploying in India.
Wang Qijian's Vietnamese plant is pushing the production line automation in order to control costs and maintain product stability.He said that although Vietnam's minimum wage is slightly lower than China, coupled with social security and other costs, the differences between the two places are "more than ten percentage points."
Shi Yongsheng, president of the Vietnamese Singapore Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi, bet on Shi Yongsheng, and Vietnam can get a leap -up growth next.
Shi Yongsheng has worked in China for a long time, and has observed it closely for many years.He believes that the gap between Vietnam and China has been shortened to 10 years. The key is that Vietnam can use a weapon -technology in the rise.
Shi Yongsheng said that Vietnam can take less detours by 5G and artificial intelligence, and even the curve speed. When China is promoting reform and opening up, technology is not common, and there is no development model to follow.Walking through."Deng Xiaoping said to cross the river by touching the stone. Vietnam doesn't need to touch the stones. Just see how China goes."
The industrialization of the central and western China is impacted
Some low -end manufacturing industries in China transferred to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. In the short termIt will not shake the position of the world's factory, but it will crack down on the industrialization development of the central and western regions.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology, Singapore Nanyang InstituteSecond and third -tier cities allow local economy to achieve industrialization.
But China ’s strategic competition in China and China and the United States, Western countries have increased their efforts to promote decoupling with China, resulting in some low -end manufacturing industries directly to foreign countries.Li Mingjiang pointed out that the regional economy in the central and western regions and counties will be difficult to achieve industrialization. "Even if it is some basic and low -end industrialization, it is difficult to have opportunities."
Li Mingjiang said, "This is a bad result." The regional economy in the central and western regions may lack the driving force for development, and the income level of the local people is difficult to increase.question.
However, Xu Liping, a researcher at the Asia -Pacific and Global Institute of Strategic Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that it was only orders from China to Vietnam, not industry."To be precise, it is not called industrial transfer and called order transfer."
Xu Liping said in an interview with this newspaper that many companies set up factories in China and Vietnam. On the other hand, the epidemic was serious, and the order was transferred to the other side.The output and trade volume is very large, but the benefits are not large, which also reflects the low foreign exchange surplus in Vietnam.
