Analysts believe that the use of Swift sanctions is a "nuclear military" financial sanctions option for Russia's "nuclear military" financial sanctions on Western countries. It is expected to have a significant impact on related cross -border financial transactions in Russia.harm.
Nakamin Miko, a professor at Waseda University in Japan, said that the West imposed the most severe economic sanctions on Russia, and it will also suffer a huge impact.Professor Bai Jiaohao, a professor at the University of Japan, pointed out that in the context of economic globalization, Russia's exclusion of Russia's international settlement system will have a great impact on the world economy.
It is worth noting that the United States and Europe moved out of the SWIFT instead of all Russian banks from Swift, which guarantees that the EU's payment channels for the purchase of Russia's natural gas to a certain extent are unblocked.
Amos Hawkstein, a senior adviser to the US Institute of Energy Security, said that US sanctions will not target the Russian oil and gas industries, because it is not only difficult to reduce Russian oil and natural gas income, but it will instead will be.The consequences of the United States and its allies bear the rising energy price.
The Washington Post quoted officials in the US Treasury officials that the extensive Swift sanctions on Russia will harm the interests of Western companies, especially large oil companies.At the same time, the United States and Germany use the SWIFT system to conduct the highest frequency of transactions with the Russian Bank, so it has the greatest potential negative impact due to the relevant sanctions.
Russia's exclusion of the SWIFT payment system may also make it difficult for the West to repay debt from Russia.According to data from international settlement banks, as of now, the arrears of entities in Russia in Russia reached US $ 121 billion in arrears, of which about $ 14.7 billion in US banks.
Fitch: Limited long -term impact on Russia
It also believes that although SWIFT sanctions brings confusion to the Russian economy and financial systems in the short term, it has long -termThe impact is limited.
International rating agencies believe that foreign banks can use Swift's alternative system to trade with Bank of Russia, but the cost is higher.
In response to Western sanctions, the Russian Central Bank developed a local version of the financial information transmission system (SPFS) in 2014.According to statistics, 23 foreign banks are currently connected to SPFS systems.As of May last year, 20%of Russian domestic transfer was completed through the SPFS system.In view of the current Russian banks being removed by Swift, more foreign banks will not rule out that more foreign banks will join the payment system in the future.
