(Morning News) The American S & P 500 entered the adjustment area for history and analysts.
This Tuesday (2On the 22nd) Russia sent troops to Ukraine, eager to expand their power, causing the three major stock indexes in the US stock market to fall more than 1 % in a row.The standard and Pur 500 index now has been officially confirmed by Wall Street market analysts to officially enter the adjustment area.The Dow Jones Index, which had just stepped back overnight, was also adjusting the area of the zone, and only stepped into this area in just one step away.Unless it is an investor with a long -term span, many people may have begun to watch now.
As the tension between Russia and Ukraine intensified, the market also understands that Western countries may impose sanctions on Russia's oil.This is even more burden on the stock market.The market has fallen by more than 10 % from the recent high point as a criterion to indicate the adjustment stage of the adjustment.
Galaxy -Lianchang Securities Market strategist Huang Chunxing said in an exclusive interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "Yes. Technically, the standard and the Pur 500 Index are currently in the adjustment stage because it has been from January in JanuaryThe high point has fallen by about 10 %. The emotion of adjustment will be largely dependent on the development of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. From the rise of the situation last night, the market will face it.Risk may increase. "
Ye Junrong, a market strategist, also agreed:" Yes, the standard and the Pur 500 index fell to the adjustment zone again.There are also new geopolitical tensions, which brings new uncertainty to the original economic interruption and global inflation pressure. "
Ye Junrong said:" Recently, the stock market trend will continue to be subject to Russia and Ukraine News.Waiting for the influence of the news. At this time, investors believe that more of them are passively responded, not active 'predictive nature' to make investment decisions. "
Ye Junrong also believes:" Standards and the Pur 500 Index are self -contained self -contained.At the beginning of the year, it has been in a downward trend. From the perspective of the high point and low point of the index, its high point is low, but its low points are lower than before, showing that the power of the bear market seems to be controlled by the stock market. "
What happened to the trend in the short term?Huang Chunxing said: "All of this depends on whether the key support of the level of 4300 points is established. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine is further upgraded, it may exceed the 4,300 point support, which may cause deeper selling."
Huang Chunxing said that in the worst case, if the standard and the Poole 500 index really falls below 4300 points, it may fall to 4,100 points and find support at this level.All in all, the current price trend still looks quite weak, and the possibility of deterioration in the short term is quite likely.
Although the tension between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated a lot of pressure on the stock market, many market participants basically believe that some adjustments of the stock market are caused by the Fed's tightening of monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates from March this year to avoid high inflation.This will definitely drag economic growth.In addition, the high -bond yields brought by the expected policy changes are expected to reduce the company's future profits, thereby reducing stock valuation.
Huang Chunxing said: "The Fed will start the interest rate hike cycle in March. Therefore, before the Fed announced on March 15, the Standard and the Pur 500 Index will probably be adjusted.During the stage. In late March, after the market digestive interest rate hike plan, the stock market can rebound. "
Although the current situation seems to be dim, there is still good news in the history of the previous car.According to data from the Dow Jones, since 1998, the standards and the Pur 500 Index have achieved an average of 9.3 % of the increase in 12 months after the adjustment.In the year after the adjustment, the probability of the index rose is two -thirds, that is, only one third of the chances of the adjustment will continue to be low.
In addition, a recent survey by Reuters shows that so far, market participants who have been investigated have basically believed that the standards and the Poole 500 index will still have a better performance than last year.
In short, I hope that this adjustment is the kind of adjustment that can stabilize the foundation and promote market rising.And although Russia -related economic risks and the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve are the cause of market decline, investors still need to pay attention to whether sanctions, rising oil prices will seriously affect consumer expenses, how many times the Fed will raise interest rates.I believe this kind of influential factors really have to wait a while to be clear.
