Zhu Ying: The China -Europe Investment Agreement shows the game between China, Europe

Zhu Ying

China and the European Union completed the investment agreement negotiation on December 30, and when the signing of the agreement has become a focus of public opinion in the world.In the context of the deterioration of Sino -US relations, if China -Europe can sign an investment agreement, this will be a major victory of Chinese diplomacy. The China -Europe Investment Agreement gives extremely important strategic value in the current Chinese foreign relations.

First, whether to sign the China -Europe Investment Agreement is a major test of China -Europe relations.In mid -September 2020, China and Europe held a high -level summit, and the positive role of the summit was very limited.The EU Council President Michelle stated in a statement after the summit that the EU and China have real differences in some issues, and the EU will not cover these differences.

In trade issues, the European Union needs to be treated more fairly, and a more balanced relationship is, which is a peer and fair competitive environment.In terms of democracy and human rights, the European Union continued to pay serious attention to the Hong Kong National Security Law, and the EU reiterated its attention to China ’s minority methods in Xinjiang and Tibet.In terms of international security affairs, the European Union urged China to restrain themselves and do not take unilateral action on the South China Sea issue to respect international law and avoid conflicts.

Chinese official media said in this Central European Summit that Xi Jinping told EU leaders that China does not accept human rights "teachers", and the European Union should solve its own human rights issues.Xi Jinping's words have just fallen. On September 16, the European Union Commission Chairman Feng Delin published the first national information discipline in his tenure. She expressed a rare tough attitude towards China.She said that the EU must express it, whether it happens or where or where is the act of human rights, whether it is in Hong Kong or Uyghur.

She announced that the European Union will propose the European version of the Magnitsky Act to sanction and infringe on human rights.December 7.The European Council passed the EU version of the Magnitzki Act to establish a global human rights sanctions system.The European Council issued a statement that this is the first time that the EU has established sanctions mechanisms, indicating that promoting and protecting human rights is still the foundation and priority of EU's foreign actions, and at the same time reflect the determination of the EU to solve serious human rights and abuse.

The President of the European Council Michelle pointed out that the European Union must realize that the values, political systems, and understanding of multilateralism in the EU and China are different.The EU adheres to its own values.

In early December, Germany, which has always been cautious in China, has released a new human rights report, and has put forward unusual criticism for China.The report believes that China "has been affected by many restricted folk social spaces becoming increasingly narrow."In China, people engaged in the human rights movement "sometimes sentenced to long -term imprisonment."The central principles of the legal system are "still not respected.""Under the control of the party, the judicial institution is regarded as a tool for exercising power by the party." The report expressed concern about the Hong Kong National Security Law.

At the same time, the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs is responsible for European Affairs Minister Rot believes that Beijing regards economic dependence as a leverage of power and politics. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the European health system, make the supply chain diversified, and avoid dependence in critical areas.German public opinion calls for reducing dependence on the Chinese market.

A German Business Daily commented that Germany should learn from Australians' lessons."What kind of political and economic consequences will this dependencies bring? Australians are eating hard to understand this. Beijing uses this dependence as a weapon to let Australia obediently obedient, and the critics there are sound."

The Sino -Europe relations described above can be seen: the political significance of the China -Europe Investment Agreement exceeds economic significance.From a strategic point of view, the China -Europe Investment Agreement can lock the economic and trade relations of the two major economies in the world, thereby shattered the United States' attempt to isolate China. The consolidation of China -EU economic and trade relations has compressed the space for the opposition between China and the European values. The EU objectively supports China.The status of the world stage.

Second, whether it can sign the China -Europe Investment Agreement is a test of the value and economic benefits of the EU weighing values and economic benefits, and it is also a test of whether China can further integrate into the world.

Like the United States, the EU has seriously misjudged China's reform and opening up.China and Democracy published by the Harry Fax International Security Forum in November 2020: The greatest game pointed out: The core error of democratic countries is that they believe that China will become national democracy while accumulating capitalist economic interests.However, not only did China not achieve democracy, it has become the most powerful autocracy in history.The European Union now knows China like this.Therefore, the EU is not only involved in economic and trade issues, but also issues such as human rights.

Unlike the United States, the European Union always insists on hoping to cooperate with China when expressing relations with China.This is the predicament of the European Union's strategy to China.On the one hand, the European Union depends on the Chinese market, hoping to continue to develop economic and trade relations with China, especially Germany. In 2020, Germany's sales in China still achieve double -digit growth; on the other hand, the EU insists on human rights to deal with China by human rightsEssenceThe balance of values and economic interests is also reflected in the negotiation process of the China -Europe Investment Agreement.

Labor clauses are standard allocation of trade and investment agreements in the 21st century. The EU and the United States are settled in the labor terms in the signing of free trade agreements or bilateral investment agreements.Labor clauses are sensitive to the political system in China.China has not yet approved the international conventions that reflect values, such as forced labor conventions and abolition of forced labor conventions, and do not accept core labor standards.China has not accepted labor terms in the free trade agreement or investment agreement signed so far.According to media disclosure, China was required to implement the standards of the United Nations International Labor Organization and adopted effective steps to approve the relevant standards of the United Nations organization.

On December 23, the French World News reported that the French Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic attraction, List, promised to the media that if Beijing has not made progress on Uyghur forced labor, Paris will not support the China -Europe investment agreement.Western media rendered a research report saying that China was forcing hundreds of thousands of Uighurs and other ethnic minorities to engage in hard physical labor in the vast cotton fields in Xinjiang.On December 17, the European Parliament passed a resolution accusing China of human rights issues of Uyghur and other Muslim ethnic minorities.The European Parliament urged EU leaders to use new sanctions to punish Chinese officials involving Xinjiang human rights issues.

From the above -mentioned EU's high -human rights flag described, it can be seen that if the EU can give priority to economic interests and abandon the labor terms, this will be a diplomatic victory in China to win values.However, from the perspective of the European Union's strategy, the possibility of the EU's abandonment of labor clauses has almost no existence. The EU's failure in maintaining values, the EU cannot face the world, cannot maintain the United States and Europe allies.On December 21, Lan Ge, chairman of the European Parliament Trade Commission, pointed out on Twitter that how to solve the problem of forced labor will determine the fate of the China -Europe Investment Agreement.

For China, whether the China -Europe Investment Agreement can sign the China -Europe investment agreement to provide more resources in China, or to make the government dominate the economy.The European Union has always complained that China will not open the market, so it hopes to lock China's market opening up with the help of investment agreements.According to the South China Morning Post, China has made rare concessions in industries such as financial services, manufacturing, and real estate.In return, the European Union agreed to open investment in the field of renewable energy to China.

Third, whether the China -Europe Investment Agreement can be signed is whether the United States and Europe can cooperate with China to deal with China.Biden expressed his desire to deal with China with the European Union.The European Union also actively responded to Biden's demand.On December 2, the European Union released the EU -the United States to respond to the new agenda of global reform, and China became a key issue for European and American cooperation.The first sentence of the report is that the relationship between the European Union and the United States is based on common history, common values and common interests.The report claims that "as an open democratic society and market economy, the European Union and the United States have unanimously recognized China's strategic challenges brought about by the increasing international self -confidence."

In early December, the senior representative of the European Union's Foreign and Security Policy and Vice Chairman of the European Commission Berry said in an exclusive interview with the European newsbank (I do n’t believe that the economic and trade relations with China must be balanced.Republicans, Trump or Americans exclusive. I think the Western world has a feeling, that is, in the relationship between us and a country that is still self -developed in developing countries, we mustMust be restored to a certain degree of equality."

Since Biden wants to let the United States lead the world, to unite European allies and use international rules to deal with China. The European Union also expresses the same views as the United States cognitive China. If the China -Europe investment agreement becomes a fact before Bayeng takes office, it becomes a fact.This will be the best of Biden, and it is also the victory of China ’s strategic game in China and the United States.The China -Europe Investment Agreement is a nail embedded in the United States and Europe relations, which nails the EU's hands and feet for the United States on human rights and economic and trade issues.

The China -Europe Investment Agreement involves not only the relationship between China and the European Union, but the United States has become an indispensable factor in whether the China -Europe Investment Agreement has reached.This can explain why the Biden team pressured the European Union.On December 21, Jack Sulvin, who was nominated by Biden as a national security consultant, wrote on Twitter that the new government "welcome to consult with our European partners as soon as possible to discuss our common concerns about Chinese economic behavior."This speech in Sulwin is to remind the European Union to jointly deal with China, which is forcing the EU to make strategic choices in front of the United States and China.

After China and the European Union completed the China -EU Investment Agreement on Wednesday, the United States immediately took action on the dispute over the 16 -year -old civil aviation subsidy issue, and announced that it would plus the EU goods with a total value of US $ 7.5 billion (about S $ 9.9 billion) (about S $ 9.9 billion).Tariffs are expected to be implemented as soon as the 12th of this month.

On December 18, a group of European scholars who studied Chinese issues published an open letter entitled "EUs' inability to reached an investment agreement with China".They pointed out: "If we reach a separate agreement, just like the first -stage trade agreement reached by Trump a year ago, this will further destroy the cross -Atlantic partnership." "From the perspective of Beijing, ... in the United States, powerThe stage of transfer, allowing the EU to sign an investment agreement is equivalent to a strong recognition of its political trajectory. "The China -Europe Investment Agreement" is not only a pragmatic concession in the investment field, but also affects other important interests and core values in Europe. This is related toCredit. "

The above three points indicate that the China-Europe investment agreement has great strategic value to China.According to the latest news, China has made the necessary substantial commitment on the three major negotiations of market access, fair competition environment and sustainable development.China agrees to "continue to work hard" to strive to approve the forced labor conventions of international labor organizations and abolish the forced labor conventions.Chinese senior leaders include the strategic considerations of US factors into the China -Europe Investment Agreement, which meets the EU's demands on China. The possibility of a positive result of the China -Europe Investment Agreement is increasing.

The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai Normal University Business School

For China, whether the China -Europe Investment Agreement can sign the China -Europe investment agreement to provide more resources in China, or to make the government dominate the economy.The European Union has always complained that China will not open the market, so it hopes to lock China's market opening up with the help of investment agreements.