If the factors that drag down economic growth will gradually disappear in the second half of this year, the IMF expects that the global economy is expected to increase by 3.8%in 2023, but the cumulative growth rate of this year and next will still be 0.3 lower than previous forecasts.percentage point.
(Washington Composite Electric) International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will increase by 4.4%this year, 0.5 percentage points lower than the forecast value in October last year.This is the weakened growth prospect in China and the United States, and inflation continues to be high.
IMF released the update of the World Economic Outlook Report on Tuesday, pointing out that the global economic situation in 2022 is more vulnerable than the previous expectations.Restricting personnel flow, continuous rise in energy prices, and supply chain interruptions have caused inflation levels to exceed expectations and spread wider.
In the third year of the epidemic, the report pointed out that the world economy increased by 5.9 % in 2021, the largest in 40 years.The global economy shrinks 3.1 % in 2020, creating the largest decline in peacetime since the Great Depression.
IMF predicts that if the factors that drag economic growth gradually disappear in the second half of 2022, the global economy is expected to increase by 3.8%in 2023, which is 0.2 percentage points from the October forecast, but the cumulative growth of this year and next year, the two years and next year, and the cumulative growth of this year and next year, the cumulative growth of this year and next year, the cumulative growth of this year and next year, and the cumulative growth of this year and next year.The rate will still be 0.3 percentage points lower than before.
It is expected to increase by 3.9%this year
The developed economy is expected to increase by 3.9%this year, which is 0.6 percentage points from previous forecast values;Increased by 2.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points.Economy and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.8%this year, 0.3 percentage points lower than previous forecast values; next year will increase by 4.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points.
IMF said that the average annual inflation rate of developed economies this year is expected to be 3.9 %, which is higher than the previous estimate of 2.3 %, and emerging and developing countries are expected to be 5.9 %.
The first vice president of IMF Gogante said that by 2024, the epidemic will lead to a cumulative economic loss of US $ 1.38 trillion (S $ 18.53 trillion), and the previous forecast was US $ 1.25 trillion.
IMF believes that the interest rate hikes in developed economies will lead to risks in emerging markets and developing economies in terms of capital flow, currency and fiscal status and debt.In addition, the upgrading of geopolitical tensions will lead to other global risks.
In major economies, the IMF expects that the US economy will increase by 5.6 % in 2021; it will increase by 4 % in 2022, 1.2 percentage points lower than previous expectations; slower to 2.6 % in 2023.IMF pointed out that US President Biden failed to pass a large -scale social and climatic expenditure plan, coupled with the US Federal Reserve's advance tightening monetary policy, and the supply chain bottleneck continued to exist, so it lowered the growth of growth.
IMF also reduced the expectations of China's economic growth in 2022 to 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%; it is expected that China's economic growth will rise again to 5.2%in 2023.IMF said that China ’s zero -tolerance policy and the continued tension of real estate developers have taken the epidemic, which is the reason for the estimated estimation.
IMF also lowered the estimated growth of the euro zone by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9%. It also said that the economic growth rate of the euro zone in 2023 will slow to 2.5%.
