The recent Ukrainian crisis makes the United States and RussiaThe relationship is even more tense.The Russian army was about to move on the Ukrainian border, making the international community worry that the war might be possible. The United States and Russia have already negotiated for this, whether it can alleviate the confrontation situation worldwide.
The Russian 100,000 Army gathered near the Ukrainian border, which made Ukraine disturbed.NATO headed by the United States immediately raised its warning. At the end of last month, US President Biden and Russian President Putin talked to the phone. The two sides warned each other and also listed their bottom line.Bynden said that once the Russian army invaded Ukraine, it would increase sanctions against Russia and NATO will also strengthen military power deployment.Putin warned that if Western countries such as the United States dare to sanction further, the relationship between each other will break.
Behind the Ukrainian crisis is the contest of the United States and Russia.The two countries have calculations. The US strategy is NATO's eastward expansion and the surrounding Russia. Economic sanctions are implemented if necessary. In particular, financial means are a great weapon to fight the Russian economy, and then weaken Russia's power.Deploy attacking weapons and give Russia security guarantee.
Russia is in a defensive trend, and can only try its best to strengthen the control of neighboring countries (Ukraine, Kazakhstan and White Ross), form its own exterior wall protection, and fight against NATO eastward expansion.The other is military scared.In recent years, Putin has continuously emphasized the power of Russia's supersonal speed missiles, showing to the world that Russia is a military power, and it is to warn the United States not to act lightly.
On strength, a Russian country must be able to fight against the United States and NATO.However, the key to the victory of the courageous of the two armies is the determination, and the strength is still second.This has a front car to learn. For example, the United States eventually retired in the Vietnam War. In Afghanistan in 20 years, it was finally withdrawn the troops. Russia's former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan that year and ended in failure.These are the disparity of strength, but the result is the defeat of a strong country.The reason is nothing: there is no way to escape by the invading country. Only one fight has a way to live.
NATO promised to Russia in 1997 that he would not deploy a army in NATO member states bordering Russia.Later, after the Baltic nation became a member of NATO, NATO did not formulate any military emergency plans for defensive Baltic countries.However, after Russia started war with Georgia in 2008, after swallowing Crimea in 2014 and supporting armed confrontations in eastern Ukraine, NATO's attitude changed.
In recent years, NATO has regarded Ukraine as an anti -Russian "bridgehead", trying to deploy weapons and establish military bases in Ukraine to restrain Russia.NATO and Ukraine's military activities in the Black Sea have further exacerbated tensions.Putin recently pointed out that Russia has repeatedly stated that it will never accept NATO to continue to expand eastward, and accuse NATO's commitment to abandoning not to eastward expansion more than 20 years ago. Now deploying missile systems in Romania and Poland is a blatant deception to Russia.
The enemy is outside the door, which is a crisis of life and death.Ukraine is the last external defense line of Russia to ensure its national security. Once a breakthrough, it is difficult to estimate the security threat to Russia in the future.Based on this, Russia must protect its safety with the greatest determination.On the other hand, there is no concern for the United States and NATO. Once the Russian army invades Ukraine, it is a big question mark if they are willing to bear high costs to save Ukraine.
Russian army Kazakh improves with the United States negotiation chips
The United States must use the EU to deal with Russia, and the latter's attitude is very important.Because the European Union and Russia have close economic and trade relations, some Western European countries are worried that once the United States has increased sanctions against Russia, it will damage the European economy.According to the European Commission, the European Union is Russia's largest trading partner, and as of the beginning of 2020, it accounted for 37 % of Russia and global total trade.About 25 % of the EU's oil entrance comes from Russia.Multiple aspects of sanctions that the United States now considers include cutting off Russia's connection with the world financial system.Europe is also worried about Russia's retaliation, especially for it to cut off the natural gas supply to the European continent.
This time, Putin was lucky. When I met Kazakhstan, there was a sudden riots, giving Russia an opportunity to "perform".The Russian Elite Paratroopers went to Kazakhstan to assist in the chaos. It quickly calmed down within a day or two, and its strength was impressive.Putin's timely showing the power of the Russian army, more importantly, highlights the determination to firmly defend his territory that belongs to his own.Instead of Kazakh, it was Putin's successful diplomatic show.
Stannovaia, founder of the Moscow think tank R.Politik, pointed out that Russia used the situation of the situation to enter Kazakhstan, a country that was regarded by Russia as a country's strategic security."The sent army to Kazakhstan has improved the bargaining chips between Russia and the United States. Russia has proven that its strength is stronger than a year ago."Love said that although Russia only sent thousands of people to Kazakhstan, the move won Kazakhstan's loyalty."This ensures that their long -term alliances with Russia, no matter which force entering Central Asia, is not affected. Just as the member states of Warsaw Group." Warsaw Group was the group established by the Soviet Union in the Cold War.NATO triads to resist gifts.
Putin made a decisive shot to make the United States scruple.U.S. Secretary of State Brills recently shouted to Kazakh President Toccyev, asking him to be careful to invite God to be easy to send God. The Russian army provided protection. It would be difficult to leave in the future.In this regard, Stannovaia pointed out that although Russia stated that it would only stay in Kazakhstan, it must never rule out the possibility of long -term stationing."For Russia, the temptation of Kazakhstan is too great. This is possible."
The United States and NATO are so powerful. Why do Putin still dare to do whatever they want?Putin understood that the United States did not dare to rush his face with Russia.
Bloomberg analysis pointed out that Putin dared to use soldiers overseas in recent years because of western positions, and things happened in groups.What's more, the departure of Kazakhs, compared to Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, annexing Crimea in 2014, the military scale was much smaller, and the incident quickly ended, without much hand tail.Analysis comments pointed out: "30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is now more influential to neighboring countries than the Soviet era. It is expected that the Kremlin will continue to show its strength on issues such as the Balgan Peninsula and the Middle East in the future."
Scholars: The feat table for the U.S. Army Russia for the U.S. Army
With a successful example of Kazakh, Putin should not make concessions on the Ukrainian issueEssence
Scholars of the Global and Regional Research Institute of Oxford University and Cunki European visiting professor Beccov believes that Putin has successfully allowed Bayon to focus on Ukraine."For the Kremlin, the purpose has been achieved. This also clearly states that Ukraine dispatched the army and made military threats."
Bachev said that Putin's strategy has achieved results."The confrontation between Moscow and Washington has made it a big country that is almost together with the United States. When the Sino -US confrontation, this is a big feat.But for Russia, it has done the best to ensure that it is a place in the game of a great country. "
Everyone is most concerned about, will Ukraine fight densely, will it fight?Corpoinov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out that Putin's attitude towards the issue of security for security for Western countries does not mean that the two sides have no room for negotiation.Russia will not give up any options based on national interests.
If the United States and NATO doThere are further military advice to Russia, and Russia's national security has not been really harmful and will not rush to send troops in Ukraine.The past history has repeatedly proved that the occupation of a country is easy and the difficulty of governing a country, and the country invading the country must be caught in a mud.
Putin is decisively decisively and the old conspiracy must understand the advantages and disadvantages.Besides, the United States is also unwilling to move greatly, and the biggest possibility is that the two parties continue to negotiate.
Russia's influence projected Eurasia and the Middle East of Eurasia
Although Russia has been from the former Soviet -era strong country to today's military power (for so many years, the Russian economyIt is still bad), but in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, it can be seen that the shadow of Russia is still behind the scenes.
The United States and China have a comprehensive confrontation between the United States and China. In the face of the Western crosses, China must use some help from Russia to compete for military affairs.For example, China -Russia's joint military exercises are obviously scary to the United States.Russia certainly needs Chinese cooperation.
Support each other in China and Russia's international affairs
On December 23, 2021, Putin emphasized when answering media questions held by Moscow at the annual press conference.The importance of Russian collaboration.He pointed out that Sino -Russian relations are an important stable factor in the international community and a "absolute" comprehensive strategic collaboration partnership.Putin also emphasized that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping established a personal relationship with each other and supported each other in international affairs.At the same time, Putin affirmed the results of China -Russia's cooperation in many fields such as trade and security, which is obviously attracting China.
There are still many ways to compete in the United States on the hand of Russia.
Many European countries' relying on Russia's natural gas supply has become a tool for Russia's influence and even threatening Europe.Russia's "Beixi 2" pipeline to Germany has caused the United States to worry. Worried that "Beixi No. 2" increases European natural gas to Russia, which may allow Moscow to choose some countries such as Ukraine.Essence
"Beixi 2" is connected from Russia to Germany, with a length of 1230 kilometers of natural gas pipelines. The project was completed at the end of last year.Russia laid two underwater gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, and "Beixi 2" was one of them.Earlier, Russia has laid land natural gas pipelines to penetrate Eastern Europe.
The United States opposes "Beixi No. 2", but many European countries rely on Russia and do not intend to be at the same time as the United States.This caused the US mouse taboo device, although the United States once sanctioned the construction company to participate in the "Beixi 2" project, and then considering the national interests and avoiding damage to the European allies, the United States decided to abandon sanctions last May.
Petroleum is another more powerful weapon in Russia, which is enough to affect global oil prices.
On the issue of oil production, Russia cooperates with Saudi Arabia to control oil production.Although the United States is already one of the world's largest oil -producing countries, it still has to worry about the actions of oil -producing countries such as Russia.
A few months ago, due to the surge in oil prices, the United States demanded that China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Britain and other large oil consumption countries released some of the reserves of oil to reduce the price of oil.Biden asked the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil -producing countries (OPEC+) to increase production significantly, but OPEC+has been ignored.However, at the end of November last year, the emergence of the Omikon crowded strain caused market concerns, which caused oil prices to fall in a few days, and inadvertently helped the United States a lot.Otherwise, oil -producing countries such as Russia are unwilling to reduce production significantly, and the United States will be more pressured in the face of rising oil prices and high inflation.
The Middle East is also the area of the United States and Russia.The United States supports Saudi Arabia, for Iran, Iraq, and Syria against terrorists.On the other hand, the U.S. military supports Syrian rebel organizations to try to overthrow President Assad with their hands, but after a few years, the rebels have no climate. Assad has obtained Russian forces to support and provide weapons to remove the rebels.So far, Assad is still firm in power, indicating that Russia has successfully blocked the United States' intervention.
Ukraine's internal and external affected civil war shadows
Ukraine is around Western forces such as Russia and the United States, and vulnerable governments and economic stagnation.The damage of the partner of the Eastern Ukraine has already shown a crisis of civil war.
The collapse of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine was independent in 1991.Originally, Ukraine, Russia, and Russia, before February 2010, the Prime Minister Yanukovich was elected president and abandoned the political and free trade agreement signed with the EU during his term to strengthen the relationship with Russia.This situation triggered a demonstration of pro -EU in 2013, resulting in a political crisis.The Ukrainian revolution occurred the following year, leading to the fall of the Yankovic government, and the pro -Western forces led Ukrainian politics.
Soon after, the pro -Russian separatists announced their independence in Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine, and then fought for several months with the Ukrainian government forces for several months.Although under France and Germany's mediation, Kiev and Moscow signed the Minsk agreement in 2015, but the armed conflict still occurred from time to time.Data from the United Nations show that since March 2014, more than 3,000 civilians have been killed in related conflicts.
The 2014 Ukraine Revolution also triggered the Crimean crisis, and Russia used it to annex the Crimean Peninsula.The Minxk agreement was reached by Ukraine, Russia, and European countries when Russia annexed Crimea and continued to support the separation of Wudong.
Crimea is the only autonomous Republic in Ukraine.Most of the local people were held in Russia. On March 16, 2014, more than 90 % of voters supported Russia and separated from Ukraine with Castopol.Two days later, Crimea was formally annexed by Russia, causing the international community to condemn.The Ukrainian government, the United States, the European Union and most countries do not recognize the referendum results.
Sevastopol is a port city located on the southwest coast of Crimea.Part of the city's Casatopol Port is the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Although Russia has always denied inciting the rebellion against Ukraine, in March 2015, Putin first acknowledged the first -hand planning of Crimea in a new documentary produced by Russia.Putin acknowledged that he had ordered military to take over Crimea.
The recently said that Russia tried to make a turmoil in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelezzki recently pointed out that the government revealed a coup conspiracy together, and the Ukrainian and Russians participated.Ukraine Foreign Minister Culba warned that this coup conspiracy or a plan before Russia invaded Ukraine.
