Taiwan's visiting countries generally do not have much highlights. It is the biggest stage to take advantage of American transit.
Tsai Ing -wen launched on Wednesday (March 29) to Guatemala and Belsitz in Central American diplomatic relations. New York and Los Angeles, USA, for 10 days and nine nights.
Treating New York, Cai Yingwen is expected to be awarded the "Global Leadership Award" by the Hudson Institute of the Washington Conservative Think Tank Hudson on March 30.The return journey is expected to cross Los Angeles on the evening of April 4th in West time. It is expected to speak at the Reagan Presidential Library from April 6th and 7th, Taiwan time, and meet with the Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy.
This is the biggest highlight of Tsai Ing -wen's trip, because this will be the first time in Taiwan to meet with the US House of Representatives in the United States. It will also be regarded as in August 2022.After that, the U.S. Congress had another important political statement.
After the United States and the Republic of China were interrupted in 1979, the leaders of the two sides and the official have not interacted on the table for a long time.It was not until 1994 that Li Denghui, then Taiwan, passed the United States when he visited Central and South America, and became the first Taiwan to transit the United States after breaking diplomatic relations.
Taiwan, especially the Democratic Progressive President who advocates Taiwan independence, will definitely irritate Beijing in the United States.At the moment when Sino -US relations are located, Beijing determines that the United States is restraining the "Taiwan card" to China. When Tsai Ing -wen crosses the United States, Beijing is bound to pay attention to the whole process.
cross -strait confrontation
On the two sides of the strait on Wednesday, they shouted each other and shouted each other.When Cai Yingwen spoke at Taoyuan Airport in Taiwan before his visit, he emphasized that Taiwan's determination to go to the world is becoming more and more firm, and said that "foreign pressure will not hinder Taiwan's determination to go towards the world."
Zhu Fenglian, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China, emphasized and warned that Tsai Ing -wen must not contact Mercy Mercy McCarthy.She said that this will "seriously violate a Chinese principle and harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity" and destroy the peaceful and stable provocations of the Taiwan Strait.
Mao Ning, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a regular press conference that China has repeatedly reported to the United States on Cai Yingwen's transit to the United States.Can't provide any legitimacy. "Mao Ning also stated that China will follow the development of the situation closely and "resolutely and strongly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Bynden government stated as early as a week ago that Cai Yingwen's transit stay in the United States is in line with precedent, not a formal visit. Beijing should not use this as an excuse to upgrade the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Mainland scholars: Whether the Taiwan Strait crisis depends on two points
Beijing will have a shot on Taiwan this time. It will not be known until the meeting of Tsai Ing -wen and McCarthy.
Hong Kong Zhongtong News News Agency reported that Bao Chengke, assistant director of the Shanghai East Asia Research Institute, believes that whether Tsai Ing -wen has caused the Taiwan Strait crisis to depend on whether there is a senior official of the Bayeng government to meet with Tsai Ing -wen and Tsai Ing -wen Council.Whether it is in the United States to make Taiwan independence remarks, I believe that China and the United States are negotiating, and Tsai Ing -wen will be further compressed in the United States.
According to Taiwan reporters, Ge Laiyi, an expert in Washington Think Tank, who has been paying attention to the situation in Taiwan for a long time, believes that Beijing may conduct some military exercises, "but the scale should not be visited in Taiwan with Pelosi.The same time. "
The assistant researcher at the National Institute of National Defense and Security, Ji Zhidong, analyzed that McCarthy did not visit Taiwan and believed that Beijing could feel the self -control of Taiwan and the United States.He said, "If Beijing still reacts with a big movement as last year, the legitimacy is not enough."
Tsai Ing -wen's last time in the United States in 2019, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced the PLA's navy in Taiwan.The Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued an announcement that the mainland residents of 47 cities were suspended from the pilot pilot to Taiwan, which included 47 open and free cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin to fully suspend issuance to issue a pass.
Before Tsai Ing -wen's visit, Beijing had comprehensively put pressure on Taipei. Not only did he pull away from Taiwan's diplomatic relations, Honduras, but also on the eve of Cai Yingwen's visits (6 am from 6 am to 6 am on the 29th).Entering Taiwan's air defense identification zone.
The Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan claimed to have discovered 16 Chinese military aircraft and four warships around the Taiwan Strait, of which 11 military aircraft entered the Southwest Air Defense identification zone in Taiwan.On the Internet, some Chinese netizens suggested that the PLA exercise in Taiwan, which is more intense than the locking Taiwan military exercise after visiting Taiwan, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives in August last year.
Taiwan transit the United States is the art of the United States
Taiwan's transit the United States affects the sensitive nerves between China and the United States and cross -strait relations.The U.S. and Taiwan governments have to be treated properly when they transit the United States. Especially in the United States, they give Taiwan's courtesy or restrictions when they are transit in Taiwan. They will determine the nature and perception of transit. It is a balance of balance and risk.
The long analysis of the Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) has sorted out the changes and trends of Taiwan's transit the United States from three aspects: frequency and duration, place, and activities.
When Lee Teng -hui played the pioneer in 1994, the US Clinton government did not allow him to enter the country, nor did he let him spend the night in Honolulu, and only allowed his special plane to stop in the Honolulu Mountain.Lee Teng -hui was so angry that he couldn't choose to get off the plane. He wore a casual shirt to meet the US President Bai Lezaki at the Taiwan Association's chairman on board to protest.
One year later, under the pressure of the two houses of the United States, the Clinton government agreed that Lee Teng -hui visited his alma mater Conneur University in the name of a private trip and delivered a speech.Li Denghui became the first Taiwan to settle in the United States after the Republic of China and the United States broke off in 1979, but this trip also triggered a serious Taiwan Strait missile crisis.
After 1995, the United States no longer approves Taiwan's "private visit" and allows only "transit" in the United States.In the long run, Taiwan's transit the United States has also tended to be "normalized". Tsai Ing -wen's transit will be the 29th transit the United States in Taiwan.
Analysis pointed out that after Tsai Ing -wen took office in 2016, he passed the time longer than the previous presidents.In 2019, she stayed in the United States for five days and four nights, which was the longest to transit the United States in Taiwan.
Cities of transit are concentrated in western United States
Taiwan's transit city is mainly concentrated in western United States.So far, there is no large Washington region in Political symbolic significance, nor did Virginia or Maryland.Including Tsai Ing -wen's trip, Los Angeles is the most transit US cities in Taiwan. It has 13 times, San Francisco six times, five times in New York, and Houston four times.
Taiwan generally does not choose to transit in the United States, Chen Shui -bian is the exception.In 2006, the then President Chen Shui -bian stopped on the way to Paraguay, shortly in Abu Dhabi and Amsterdam.At that time, the Bush administration of the United States did not allow Chen Shui -bian to cross in San Francisco and New York, and only provided Honolulu or Ankrech in Alaska. These two places that would not irritate Beijing.Chen Shui -bian, who was regarded by the United States as a "troublemaker" at that time, finally chose the United States.
Taiwan's transit activities in the United States are becoming more and more diverse.The analysis pointed out that when Tsai Ing -wen had previously passed the borderU.S. officials, House of Representatives, and the head of the United States meet or call in the Taiwan Association.
When Cai Yingwen was in the United States in 2019, he met the Senate Councilor Robert Menndez. It was Cai Yingwen's highest official parliamentarian when he passed the border.At that time, Monan Dez was a high -level member of the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee.However, due to Taiwan's transit the United States is a private and informal itinerary, Tsai Ing -wen will not be able to meet with US administrative officials.
Strategic and International Research Center analysis pointed out that what makes China most vigilant is that Taiwan's meeting with US officials may be regarded as "official contact" and Taiwan has the opportunity to make large -scale speeches.Global public opinion.
Analysis also concluded that Tsai Ing -wen's transit in the United States did not exceed the previous transit treatment in the place and duration.The biggest difference is that it is likely to meet with the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States.
Tsai Ing -wen will be left in the two sessions in May next year. This transit the United States should be her "graduation journey".
Previous Taiwan media reports that Tsai Ing -wen may return to his alma mater Conneur University and even go to the U.S. Congress before he stepped down.Such a big breakthrough of "transit diplomatic" cannot be achieved.
Since Lee Teng -hui has set foot on the United States in 1995 and gave a speech at Cornell University, Taiwan has stepped on the US "strategic blur" online.
In the past 30 years, Taiwan's official efforts have continued, but with the strong rise of mainland China, Sino -US relations are in the moment when Sino -US relations are increasingly complicated in low tide and geopolitics.It is the biggest limit to be "worse than the last time".
