Early
Point
Blue, green, yellow and red
The two potential bombs of the situation in the Taiwan Strait this year, McCarthy, Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan and Taiwan Cai Yingwen visited the United States. They suddenly adjusted to Cai Yingwen in the United States in California in California, and initially demolished the gratitude that might cause military conflicts.
It is reported that McCarthy was persuaded by the Tsai government and agreed that it was not at this time to anger Beijing to avoid repeating the re -acting that Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan before last August and caused military exercises for Taiwan.Strict situation: The PLA fighter jets and warships approached the Taiwan airspace and waters of 12 nautical miles, forcing the Taiwan Army to take force to counterattack.
Cai Yingwen's visit to the United States has also reduced its politics.If the news is true, she did not speculate on the Parliament of Washington, as the outside world, but instead first passed the New York speech and award when she visited the diplomatic relations at the end of this month. Then she returned to the Los Angeles and lectures in Los Angeles, California where McCarthy was located.
Zhitai sent Japanese scholar Kagawara Hyatsu on Facebook that this is a wise approach. Although Beijing will severely criticize anyway, if a large -scale military operation is taken for the "transit diplomacy" of the previous case.The mainland rebounded.
Some people describe at least Taiwan this time not only "power of power", but also a player to show the initiative and coordination ability in crisis treatment.The Cai government team's operation is relatively calm and delicate this time, and all circles in Taiwan are affirmed.Of course, there are many continuity variables. Whether you can disassemble bomb along the way, you need to walk.
Because of geopolitical location, shipping hub, and mastering the capacity of cutting -edge chip manufacturing, once the two sides of the strait started war, it will impact regional peace, global economy, and even the third world war.
The question is whether the Taiwan Strait can always maintain peace and avoid war?When it is unified to lose the public opinion market and promote Taiwan independence to lead the war, can Taiwan play a player who decisions and warfare and unified independence?Under the competition between the two major power of China and the United States, Taiwan can only be involuntary, and even become a child after losing the value of use?From the perspective of the public opinion environment in Taiwan, the power in the "power of power" can be the United States or the mainland.From the perspective of suspicion, it is the United States, and the mainland is from the perspective of anti -China.
Suspected American theories believe that the United States has hit the Taiwan card and attempts to use Taiwan to fight an agent war, just like weakening Russia through the Russian and Ukraine War to curb and develop the development of the mainland.
Anti -Chinese theory criticized the dissemination of suspicion, and was willing to be used by "hostile forces abroad", becoming a passerby of the Communist Party of China, and became a surrender under a cognitive operation.
Should Taiwan be a player?certainly.After all, regardless of war or peace, unity, or independence, it occurs on Taiwan's land. How can a parties be a chess player and master their own destiny?
However, from the current reality and environment, it may not be easier to be a player.
Taiwan's mainstream public opinion is unwilling to war, but also opposes surrender. Dare to be afraid of unity in Taiwan independence, and even generally refuses to reunite, just wants to continue to maintain the status quo.
But this status quo is "independence of facts".Although Beijing still aims at peaceful unity, when fear and rejection have become the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan, Beijing is worried about Taiwan's "leaning on the beauty", getting farther and farther, and turning the focus from anti -independence to promoting unification.Many scholars point out that if the two sides do not want to face the unity of force, they should prepare for political negotiations.
Affairs on both sides of the Taiwan Straits should not be said by outsiders, but the peace of the Taiwan Strait is really related to regional and world security.
If you don't want to be a power of power, a self -died of a horse, or the surrender of the abandoned son, the mainland will swallow it. Taiwan must think about how to be a player on the political negotiating table.
This includes cumulative negotiation chips, ease the urgency of negotiations, creating a favorable atmosphere of negotiations, and a plan for negotiating.
First accumulate negotiating chips, including two -handed strategies preparing for war and dialogue.It is necessary to effectively grasp the defense force of asymmetric combat power, communicate with China and the United States, obtain strategic mutual trust with China and the United States, or at least risk control and control, and continue to deeply cultivate the left and right layout of semiconductors, so that Taiwan is needed by the world.
The urgency of alleviating negotiations must ensure that the mainland must not engage in Taiwan independence and division, so as to have the opportunity to change and create a peaceful coexistence model for both parties.
Create a powerful atmosphere of negotiations, and launch civil exchanges after the epidemic, emphasizing that based on a Chinese principle based on the Constitution of the "Republic of China", although it must be different from the Principles of the Chinese People's Republic of China, it is also different from the US Chinese China policy.But at least let Beijing still have hope for reunification, only the two sides of the strait have the opportunity to sit down and talk.
The negotiating plan was finally ended.Beijing has proposed a plan for one country, two systems. Taiwan can not accept it, but it must first consolidate the consensus and propose the internal acceptable cross -strait final solution.
This includes the architecture of the Greater One Middle School mentioned in the Green Camp, the Federation model mentioned in the Blue Camp, and even the EU or federal model, which can be further studied.
The public opinion of Taiwan cannot accept the unity of losing sovereignty and autonomy. The official also emphasized that cross -strait is a political entity that is not affiliated with each other, which does not mean that cross -strait cannot study the relationship between "mutual subjectivity".
respect for each other and peacefulness and peace of mind is the spirit of each other.In addition to the two sides of the strait, it can also rebuild relations and explore the common future.
