Starting the role of leadership in world affairs is the meaning of the great power.But there are few great powers in history, and the United States is quite good.Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping simply rejected this role.In 1990, he put forward the famous 28 -character policy: "Calmly observe, hold the foot stabilizing, cope with it, keep the light, be good at being clumsy, never take the lead, and make a difference."At that time, the situation was amazing today. It was the mainland government regime jointly sanctioned by developed countries to sanction the "evil", but Tiananmen was replaced by Xinjiang.

But there are two differences. One is that China's national strength is not the same as before. It is calculated with comparable prices. The GDP in 1990 (GDP) was US $ 383 billion (about $ 509.7 billion), with a per capita $ 333.The corresponding numbers in 2021 were $ 18 trillion and $ 2,656, respectively.Some people say that China is full of confidence today, and it should be a lot of actions without having to keep the light.

But another different point is not good for China: In 1990, China's reform and opening up just turned 10 years, and the political elite of Western countries was still looking forward to China's westernization evolution.At that time, under the tremendous pressure of domestic public opinion and Congress, the American Bush administration reluctantly sanited China, but on the other hand, he sneered at Beijing to discuss how to maintain relations between the two countries.The situation of other Western countries is roughly the same.Japan didn't even install it, and soon resumed economic and trade relations with China.

OnePlus to reduce China's pressure is greater

Today's situation is highly consistent with Western elites and people, not only no longer holds changing China's fantasies, but also agrees that the rise of China is a huge threat to their lifestyle and liberal international order, and it is even different.Life and death.One plus one decrease, China is more stressful and lasting.

Should China return to Deng Xiaoping's policy?Or should you be brave?This is a dilemma: keeping clumsy may not be able to stay, and the attack may not be able to win.This article assumes that China can no longer return to keep their clumsy. Only analyzes what are the favorable factors and unfavorable factors if they are attacked.

Whether it is clumsy or attacking, the mainland government must face the same problem as 1990, that is, the western name added to it.It can be said that China has improved greatly in the past 30 years and has improved its reputation.

The cause is related to the blood of the mainland government.Originally, people thought that the "Communist countries" had already died. In reality, in some aspects, capitalism was repaid than capitalist countries, and Deng's "hiding light" can hide the sky.Unexpectedly, the mainland government suddenly returned to the ancestors and began to emphasize its orthodox blood. The new wine made by using old bottles to install the reform and opening up seems to have forgotten the Western Cold War with the Communist Party camp for more than 40 years.The reputation that has long been achieved is now on the head of the mainland government.

This is a bit wrong, because today's China is very different from the Mao era.But this is unrelated. It is important that this notorious is the reality of international politics.For example, the United States' consensus on the "evil" of the mainland government, under its pressure, any of the gentle views on China is taboo, not to mention friendly remarks.

Support the United States to continue to meet China's interests

Recently, some Chinese people scolded him because of the anti -Chinese remarks of former US Secretary of State Kissinger, saying that he finally revealed the fox tail.However, in the environment of the United States, he has to be the same, otherwise he will be marginalized, and there will be no ability to affect the situation.The method of dealing with scolding is not to return to eyes with eyes. With Saint -Male, it is "to return the eyes with the eyes, the world is dark", and the wolf diplomat does not work. I am afraid this is the truth.

There are many reasons for improper China's improper.First of all, it will be considered challenging to the United States.According to Deng Xiaoping's observations, most of the countries running with the United States after the war were prosperous, and those who followed the Soviet Union were poor.After the reform and opening up of China, they moved closer to the United States, and have gained many benefits from the United States and the world order it established and maintained.However, China's strong ambassador to the United States has changed its attitude. It not only changed from generosity to a lot of money, but also faced China.Sino -US relations can't go back, but this is not the same as becoming the opposite.China is far from maintaining the ability, experience, and resources of world order, support the United States to continue to be, in line with China's interests.

Second, the world is in the future in the century -long change, and everything may happen, and it cannot be controlled. Even the United States feels helpless.China can manage domestic affairs well, but it is unknown whether international affairs can be well cared for.

Third, China still lacks a wide range of recognition of the head. Only the recognition of the Third World is not enough, and developed countries can give it pivotal.The real soft power comes from the country, and the United States is open -minded, but even the people who scold the United States also run to the United States and feel that it is more reliable to live there.Once you become a superpower, "different inside and outside" and "do not interfere in the internal affairs" are not spiritual. People will judge your future behavior from your internal affairs and determine whether you are a threat or accept you. The world order is in you.It is good or unfavorable for them under the dominance.Obviously, China's heat has not yet arrived.

Finally, it will recruit endless troubles and bear the endless obligation.The era of China's "sullen loud" is also the fastest rise of the rise.Here, the leaders and the interests of the people are not always the same: participating in international affairs is an opportunity for leaders to leave the name of the history. The leaders of various countries are happy, but the cost must be borne by the people.For example, according to the calculations of American economist Joseph Stiglitz and others, the total cost of the United States in the Iraqi war is US $ 3 trillion, all of which are paid by ordinary people, while domestic is exhausted.Wait for it.It must be said that this is an important reason for US national failure and political turmoil.

There are not some favorable conditions to be a head.For example, the post -war international order is disintegrated and reorganized, and even the founder of the United States is dissatisfied, and the burden is too heavy; more and more third world countries also require the revision of this western -based order, hoping that China can choose.The difficulties of the West in political and economic encounters have made many third -world countries no longer optimistic about the Western development model, intending to find another way and change the door.

These do have created historical opportunities, and China also throws out the "Chinese -style modernization", "Chinese plan" and "Chinese wisdom";After the Belt and Road Initiative, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS Organization, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Silk Road Fund, etc.Recently, it has successfully matched Saudi Arabia and Iran. Even Kissinger believes that China may be an important force to rebuild peace or order -this troubled world is very lacking.

China must improve the international image

But China's picking will be considered by the West as a challenge to the present order.Western countries are competing with Russia in Ukraine, and on the other hand, they are promoting decoupling with China. They are pushing the two to China and Russia.Once an alliance is formed, the world pattern will change tremendous, and the third world will become the main battlefield.No country, including the West, can collapse the Sino -Russian Alliance from the outside, the latter's situation will be much more beneficial than the Eastern camp during the Cold War.But the price is gradually outdated by China and Russia. This is proven by the previous Cold War. This time, it may make the Chinese national rejuvenation.

Therefore, China seems to be too early to pick up the beam in international relations, and many preparations have not done it, or they are not done well or enough.

First of all, to improve the international image and enhance international reputation.In recent years, China has issued three global initiatives, and it is when it has the lowest reputation in developed countries, which shows that it feels good.There are personal traps here, and it is particularly easy to fall in. It has a lot of things that do not follow the heart and do not flatter like the United States.

Secondly, strive for more extensive recognition, especially in developed countries.This will be a long process, which requires superb skills. It should be oneThe subtastic process of boiled frogs in warm water is the improvement of the old order rather than a revolution, because China is the beneficiary of the current order.There are some misunderstandings here, and it is easy to make mistakes.

China seems to be considered to threaten the life and death of other countries about why its rise, and it is very incomprehensible. It even feels that someone deliberately fabricated to instigate anti -China emotions, so it is worthwhile.Such an attitude is easy to kill, because this involves some basic characteristics of human nature and civilization, and we must be taken seriously.

No country will think that they are a threat. They all think that they are good people and represent justice. This is human nature.After the terrorist attack on the World Trade Building in New York, a lively discussion broke out in the United States- "Why do they hate us?"The lice on -it is placed, but for most of the kind and upright Americans, this is a very sincere problem: we are so generous and generous to help you, fight for human rights for you, and promote democratic freedom and equality.hateful?

Fear Russian disease and terror

Russia and China also have this problem, and Russian disease and terrorism are quite common in neighboring countries.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov even joked it to express incredible.It is difficult for the great power to understand the feelings of small and medium -sized countries, and always take it for granted.To be a good head, it is essential to empathy and understanding of other countries. Otherwise, when they are scared, they will be surprised and scold the white -eyed wolf.Qiang is Big, which is the axiom of Western civilization.China alone said that it is useless to establish a new type of great power relationship and world order. It must be used for examples and consistent, otherwise the "world theory" of Chinese civilization cannot persuade people.In fact, Western countries often believe that Chinese diplomacy is closer to the realism of the 19th century.The background is different, and the understanding is different. This is the conflict of civilization.

A more realistic danger is the spirit of struggle that the mainland government is vigorously advocating.The spirit of the struggle, the ability of the struggle, and the will of the struggle all leads to the instinct of evil in human nature. It is not suitable for the construction and governance of a peaceful period in the peacetime period, especially in the era of high -tech market economy that must be observed with objective laws.

One of the main reasons for the internal consumption of the United States is that the spirit of politicians in the election campaign is too strong, and the struggle is too embarrassed. It is also necessary to fight on issues without struggles or cooperation. For them, politics is performance.

China also fights dark and scars in the Cultural Revolution.One of the main sources of blood and violence was the "faction" that was called at the time, and even Mao Zedong was helpless.His theory is very high: "Inside the working class, there is no fundamental conflict. Inside the workers class under the dictatorship of the proletariat, there is no need to split into the two major organizations."He did not understand that the theoretical "class friendship" could not replace the evil in human nature."School" is self -instinct. Site -intellectual and political claims have nothing to do, but it is just venting through the latter.There is no partition between the principled struggle and fighting, and the philosophy of struggle is not compatible with the harmony and the concept of harmony in the Chinese tradition.

The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore