Sino -US has a lot of room for cooperation in the field of economy and trade and science and technology.Under the pressure of Trump's re -election, it is a good characteristic of the results of the Sino -US negotiations; the characteristics of the U.S. economy have appeared.
At the Osaka G20 Summit on June 29, the heads of state of China and the United States reached a consensus to restart trade negotiations and no longer impose new tariffs on China's exports to American goods, avoiding the risk of further deterioration of the Sino -US trade dispute.In my opinion, the heads of state of China and the United States reached an agreement on the restart of trade negotiations during the G20 period, indicating that at this stage, both China and the United States have an agreement to reach an agreement.
At the beginning of June this year, the author visited the United States and visited Silicon Valley, Seattle, Washington and New York. The team of economists in Google, Amazon and Microsoft visited the team of economists to conduct extensive exchanges with those in politics and academia.Participated in the 2019 Sino -US Financial Symposium.Combining the recent trip to the United States, the author believes that under the pressure of Trump's re -election, to please voters through the achievements of Chinese and American negotiations; the characteristics of the U.S. economy have appeared in the top; the domestic politics and business circles in the United States are different in the Sino -US disputes.Differential demands and policies are the reasons why Trump compromises in G20.
Striving for re -election is the core appeal of Trump's foreign policy
The author participated in the 2019 Sino -US Financial Seminar jointly sponsored by the State Council Development Foundation and Harvard University Law School in Washington. It exchanged Sino -US relations with people of China and the United States and academic circles to discuss the prospects of trade war and the future political pattern of the United States.At this meeting, the United States attaches great importance to it. The guests include Wilbur Ross, USA, Heath Tarbert, Assistant Minister of Finance, Andrew Olmem, deputy director of the White House National Economic Commission, and Harvard Fa.Hal Scott, director of the College International Financial System Center, Jelna Mcwilliams, chairman of the Federal deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
In response to the 2020 presidential election in the United States, the author found that although the latest US polls show that Trump's support rate has lagged behind Democratic candidates Biden, but in terms of the author's view of communication in the United States, most politicians believe that Biden Biden believes BidenThe possibility of defeating Trump is extremely low.At present, Trump's support among eagle people is still very high. The support rates of the Deep Red State in the Western Red State of the Republican traditional ticket warehouse have basically maintained stable, and Trump's re -election has little resistance.
To treat the Sino -US trade conflict, the author observed that the strong US economy has made the current US senior officials treat trade negotiations.The United States does not have much influence, but it has a greater impact on China, and China has promised many aspects of intellectual property, market competition, and financial opening up, but there is still a distance to land and implementation.The willingness of the U.S. government to compromise in the negotiations at this stage is not strong.
But as I mentioned above, if the downward pressure on the US economy appears, the attitude of the United States on trade with China and the United States may soften.At the just -concluded Osaka G20 Summit, the first talks between China and the United States reached a consensus to avoid the worse results of the conflict upgrade. To a certain extent, it was related to economic pressure and Trump's political considerations before the election.Of course, it is also necessary to soberly realize that China and the United States have just restarted bilateral economic and trade negotiations, and the previous tariffs imposed have not been canceled. The process of future negotiations will still be twisted.Due to the continuous low diplomatic credibility of the Trump's government policy and repeated changes, the possibility of the Sino -US economic and trade disputes rushing and continuing to upgrade under the medium and long term.The game between China and the United States, long -term and complexity, may become the norm.
The US camp to the China is not a piece of iron plate
Although the Sino -US conflict has risen earlier, this trip to the United States, the author found that, in fact, the domestic politics and business demands of the United States are different, and the differences are far greater than general cognition.The author visited some world's top technology companies and financial companies in Silicon Valley, Seattle and New York this time, and conducted extensive exchanges with representatives of American high -tech companies. In fact, it has strongly felt the complexity and diversity of the US politics and business demands, and and the complexity and diversity of business demands.The eagle of non -public opinion is absolutely mainstream.
In the process of exchanges with high -tech companies in the United States, the author found that although the current eagle people in the U.S. government have a strong attitude towards China, and they are not merciless to traditional American allies in economic and trade disputes, the American politics and business circles are not iron plates.Compared with Washington, which is dominated by Eagle School, many high -tech companies on the West Coast do not agree with the policy of upgrading trade disputes, suppressing Huawei, and prohibiting scientific and technological exchanges.It is also difficult to speak in China. It may be more in line with the demands of these groups.
Trump ’s embargo’ s embargo ’s embargo’ s embargo ’s embargo on Huawei has also been opposed by many major US semiconductor companies.According to the New York Times, many industry giants such as Micron and Intel have successfully avoided the ban and continued to supply Huawei by not marking the product as the United States.The US high -tech and Fortune 500 companies are also lobbying and pressureing the US government. The recovery of component supply to Huawei this time seems to be more in line with the interests of these companies.Sexual victory.
On the eve of the G20, the Washington Post, which is more affordable to the Democratic Party, revealed that the US branches of the three Chinese banks refused to accept the submission in the investigation and were widely interpreted as the US sanctions on China and spread to the heads of the two heads of state.This incident may not be the initiative of the Trump administration to suppress China. Instead, the Washington Post, which has always been with the Trump, has taken the opportunity to create discomfort.Different from the United States is constantly increasing.
American economic inflection point is approaching
From the perspective of economic data, although the current overall performance of the US economy is good, this trip to the United States, the author found that the United States seems to have characterized the characteristics of the economic cycle.For example, among the four cities I visited by the author, the house prices of San Francisco and Seattle have declined, house prices in Manhattan on the east bank are also declining, and housing prices in Washington have also lost their driving force.It is generally believed that in the economic cycle of the real estate market cycle first, the subtle changes in the real estate market may be a manifestation of the US downside.At the same time, the impact of the Sino -US dispute on the US economy has also appeared. The number of travel agencies in California's contact in California said that since China -US trade frictions, the number of travelers in China has decreased significantly.The number of academic exchanges between China and the United States and the number of students studying in the United States was affected, so that the travel reception business was relatively low.
In addition, although the current unemployment rate and inflation are at a low point, it looks like a prosperous, but the US Treasury yield has appeared in an inverted second time during the year.The significant expectations of the U.S. economy will be faster than expected. The Fed will also release a signal of interest rate cuts. In the future, if the negative impact of the Sino -US trade friction will further appear, the US economy may further call back in the third quarter.
The combination of economics and technology becomes a general trend
The role and positioning of economists in technology companies are also the focus of the author.In this trip to the United States, I visited several world's largest science and technology companies in the world in Silicon Valley and Seattle.According to understanding, among the high -tech companies in the United States, a team of powerful economists has become standard. Economists are playing an increasingly important role in technology companies, not only limited to and then using rich micro -data for empirical empirical evidenceInspection, combines macro -thinking and empirical research on micro data to expand the depth and breadth of research.
For example, the Google Economist team not only provides models in the pricing of Google online advertisingType support also has theoretical research and policy guidance in public policy consulting.For the analysis of the welfare analysis of economics consumer welfare, it is not necessary to lead to consumer welfare losses; Amazon is the best case for the current combination of science and technology of Chinese companies in the world.At present, Amazon has a research team of more than 150 economists. Economists have participated in various business lines of Amazon, such as product pricing, advertising pricing, market prospect observation, etc.At the same time, Amazon also uses platform big data advantages to track the level of US price levels to provide reference for Fed's policy decision -making.
In addition, a large number of artificial intelligence companies are serving Wall Street's investment and research.The author's last stop at New York visited the Global Headquarters of the S & P company.In 2018, the global acquisition of Kensho, a pioneer in the US Intelligent Investment Research, was a sensational merger and acquisition incident at that time. It is also the largest artificial intelligence company in Wall Street to acquire transactions.According to the author's understanding, artificial intelligence technology has been widely used in economic analysis, and the S & P traditional rating business, index preparation and marketing also combine text mining and report automatic generation technology.Compared with traditional economic analysis and market research, artificial intelligence technology has great advantages in processing the relationship between macro -micro -economic variables and causal chains in the process of processing massive enterprise levels.
In short, from the perspective of the author's trip to the United States, technology and big data empowering economic analysis have become a new trend.Unlike the Chinese threat theory of right -wing politicians, many US technology companies are generally optimistic about the Chinese market and stated that they will increase their development in China in the future.
In my opinion, there is a lot of room for cooperation between China and the United States in the field of economy and trade or in the field of science and technology. China's vast market also has unparalleled advantages and attractiveness to other markets.For Sino -US relations, we should be alert to the U.S. government, which is currently controlled by the current eagle, seek common ground while depositing, strive to resolve differences in negotiations, and reach an agreement to meet the interests of both China and the United States.If China -US economic and trade negotiations can go further in the future, and China can also increase opening up in a wider range of areas, it will help resolve differences and provide a new source of power for China's economic growth.
