Industry insiders predict that with recently, the two places in Lu and Hong Kong have relaxed epidemic prevention measures and the pace of US interest rate hikes is expected to slow down.% To more than 10 %, but some pointed out that due to the impact of US interest rate hikes, the cost of supply -supply has increased, and property prices are difficult to rise this year.
The price of Hong Kong residential market fell 15 % under the double blow of the epidemic and rising interest rates last year, setting the biggest decline since the financial tsunami in 2008.Looking forward to this year, industry insiders believe that after the clearance of Lugang, Hong Kong property prices will rebound more than 10 % from the bottom of the valley, but some experts will be cautious.
After returning to mainland China in 1997, the Hong Kong property market has experienced many times in the past 26 years.However, after the financial tsunami in 2008, property prices have risen significantly, and in the past few years, it surpassed the historical peak of 1997.However, last year, the Hong Kong property market was hit by the epidemic and bank interest rate hikes, and began to fall repeatedly.
As of the end of 2022, the Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL), which reflects the trend of second -hand property prices, was reported to 156.77, and returned to the level in early May 2017. Compared with 184.55 in the same period in 2021, a total of more than 15 %.This is the worst year since the financial tsunami in 2008.
According to Central Plains Real Estate data, 138 CCL ingredient housing estates are in a decline.Among them, the most severe decline in Tsuen Wan Beach Garden has accumulated more than 30 % during the annual price decline.However, as mainland China and Hong Kong cleared the customs on January 8, and the SAR government continued to relax the distance from epidemic prevention social distances, the Hong Kong property market atmosphere began to warm up.Entering 2023, CCL has rose 1.19 % in three consecutive weeks.Huang Liangsheng, a senior joint director of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Department, said: "Relevant data confirms that Hong Kong property prices have been bottomed out."
In fact, the news of Lugang customs clearance has been reported earlier that many buyers have entered the market when the property price has not risen sharply.A number of cases of "anti -prices" (that is, the price that the price it agreed before regret) was also recorded in the market.
Comprehensive predictions of the four major real estate agencies of Central Plains, United, Lian, Lijiage and Hong Kong, with the recent relaxation of epidemic prevention measures in mainland China and Hong Kong, and the pace of US interest rate hikes are expected to slow down, the Hong Kong property market will have dawn this year.Property price may have a chance to pick up 5 % from the low position last year to more than 10 %.
Bud Shaoming, CEO of the Housing Department of the United Property Group (Hong Kong and Macao), pointed out that the recent Hong Kong property market has been significantly better, and many housing estates have risen significantly, and property prices have also begun to rebound from a low level.He believes that after the Lunar New Year, the performance of the Hong Kong property market is expected to be further created and benefited from the customs clearance and economic recovery of the two places.
Bu Shaoming predicts that Hong Kong's property prices and trading volume this year will be expected to synchronize the "U -shaped trend", which is stable and then rising. The annual property price may rise by about 10 %.
However, Mai Caicai, an associate professor of accounting, economics and financial departments of Hong Kong Baptist University, believes that the Hong Kong property market is affected by the epidemic and interest rate hikes.Come to benefit, many prospective buyers are worried that "buying is more expensive" and entered the market, and the Hong Kong stock market in recent months has also caused a wealth effect. Therefore, the recent recovery of the Hong Kong property market is quite normal.
But he emphasized that the "anti -price" of the owners in the Hong Kong property market does not mean that it can be sold. This also requires the cooperation of economic conditions and citizens' income levels. Citizens do not need to panic to enter the market.
Mai Caicai analyzes that although the number of inflation in the United States has fallen, the problem of inflation has continued. It is estimated that the US interest rate hike target is between 5 % and 5.5 %, so the interest port has not yet been topped.He pointed out that one of the most important reasons affecting the Hong Kong property market is the ability of citizens to contribute. If there is still a variable in the future, the citizens should be cautious to buy a house to buy a house.
Hong Kong senior surveyor Shao Zhiyao has been optimistic about the Hong Kong property market in the past many years, but recently changed his position during an interview with Lianhe Morning Post, cautious about the trend of Hong Kong property prices this year.
Affecting Hong Kong property prices in interest is the biggest factor
He explained that the biggest factor affecting Hong Kong's property prices in recent years is interest.The interest rate of Hong Kong banks has been low in the past 10 years, which has prompted property prices to continue to rise; the United States accelerated the pace of interest rate hikes in the second half of last year, Hong Kong was forced to follow, the cost of the owner's supply increased, and property prices also fell rapidly.In the year, the interest rate of Hong Kong will still remain at the level of three or four centimeters, and it is believed that property prices will be difficult to rise this year. "
Shao Zhiyao also believes that it is not advisable to exaggerate the positive impact of the land and port customs clearance on the Hong Kong property market.According to his understanding, after the outbreak of the mainland last year, many companies arrears salary and rent of employees, and even went bankrupt.Even if the two places are cleared, there may not be many rich people in the mainland to buy a house in Hong Kong in the short term.
He believes that Hong Kong property prices will run rampant at the end of last year.
