The Hong Kong Globalization Center, which is headquartered in Hong Kong, launched the top ten forecasts for 2023. From the three major aspects of politics, economy, and society, it predicts the situation of the next new year.
The Hong Kong Globalization Center was co -founded by the famous TV commentator Qiu Zhenhai and the Hong Kong Baptist University in April 2019.Looking forward to 2023, the Hong Kong Globalization Center believes that in 2023, it will become the first year of the Taiwan Strait's situation full of high risks. Sino -US relations will enter the short "Xiaoyangchun" in the first half of 2023, but will still enter a rapid downward channel.
The center also predicts that the global crown disease will end in 2023, and the epidemic situation after China's opening of the country will become the underlying logic of other countries' policy formulation in China.
Political prospects: The situation in the Taiwan Strait has entered the "risk five years" Sino -US relations short "Xiaoyangchun"
Forecast 1: The situation in the Taiwan Strait will enter "The first year of the risk of five years
The Hong Kong Globalization Center is expected to enter 2023, the United States will still visit Taiwan, blur "one China" and strengthen the "Taiwan to control China by Taiwan."It will still be the main tone of the United States on Taiwan's issue next year.
For Beijing, Taiwan has multiple attributes such as geopolitical games, technical supply chain security, and national core interests.With the arrival of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in 2027, from 2023 to 2027, it will become a five -year situation full of the Taiwan Strait situation, and next year will be the first year of the "risk of five years" in the Taiwan Strait.
Forecast 2: After Sino -US relations will continue to enter a sharp downward channel after the "Little Yangchun" in the first half of the year
Earlier next year, US Secretary of State Brosky is expected to expectVisit China to follow up with the results of the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States at the Summit of the 20th of the Twenty.
The Globalization Center of Hong Kong believes that with the maintenance of high -level communication between China and the United States and in contact with economic coordination and climate change, Sino -US relations may have a short "Xiaoyang Chun" in the first half of the yearEssence
But the center also believes that the structural contradictions between China and the United States cannot be resolved. The situation of the Taiwan Strait, technical competition, the Russian and Ukraine War, and the Korean Peninsula will once again become the main conflict after the two countries have been technically adjusted.For focus, bilateral relations enter a fast downward channel.
Forecast 3: There may be sudden reversal of the Russian and Ukraine War.Improve.After Ukrainian President Zeelianzki visited the United States, the United States and NATO stated that Ukraine further supported Ukraine, and Ukraine also began to penetrate the Russian territory to implement a strategic blow. Whether Russia can promote it into a "wartime economy" is still to be observed.
However, the center also pointed out that with the end of the US midterm election and the Republican Party mastered the House of Representatives. On October 1, 2023, after the beginning of the new US financial year, the US military aid against Ukraine can be maintained.Doubt.
Economic prospects: The world economy is weak in the Chinese economy to wait and see.
Forecast 4: The world economy will fall into a weak state, and some developed countries will have an economic crisis.
Under the circumstances that the global inflation problem cannot be relieved, the Hong Kong Globalization Center believes that the economy of the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2023 is likely to fall into decline, and at the same time, the US economy is also at stake. In 2023, the total value of GDP may decline.Essence
The center predicts that the probability of monetary policy in various countries will be further tightened, and the economic recession brought by the tightening monetary policy will frustrate the confidence of global investors, which will lead to the downturn in the investment market, resulting in some developed countries, leading to some developed countriesThe economic crisis will occur.
Forecast 5: China's economy will have difficulties in the first quarter.It means that the short -term surge in confirmed cases, and people also reduce economic activities accordingly. This dilemma is especially reflected in the first quarter of 2023.
On the other hand, the economic recession of the United States and Europe is expected to strengthen, and the weakening of external demand means that the effect of exporting to promote the economy will weaken. Stimulating consumption will become an important source of power for China's economic development next year.It may make the policy less than expected.
For the Chinese economic situation after the second quarter, the center believes that market participation subjects may maintain a viewing attitude.
Forecast 6: The Chinese government's policies involving wealth involving wealth will attach widespread attention.The government is likely to face financial issues.
After the first quarter of 2023, China's fiscal expenditure will decline due to income restrictions, which will cause difficulty to the advancement of stimulating policy.The government's stable growth policy will rely more on monetary policy, but this will also bring new debt concerns.
The center believes that the Chinese government will have new actions on tax issues such as real estate tax, inheritance tax, and individual tax reform in 2023, but it is unlikely that major new policies will be implemented.
Forecast 7: The Chinese government has accelerated stimuli for the real estate market sector
Under other factors, relevant debt related to local governments such as credit bonds may become the focus of attention.
China's stimulus to the real estate market will shift from the insurance delivery building to the promotion sales.
Social prospects: China's epidemic is moving the world's new round of policy to China underlying logic
The epidemic and other trends behind the national gate will affect the underlying logic of the world's new round of policies to China.It will also be fully opened up, but with the situation of large -scale and rapid infection in China, the problem of loosening the control measures of Chinese epidemic will also face pressure from the outside.
The center predicts that China will usher in the peak of the epidemic in the first quarter of next year, and the international community will also pay close attention to the motion that China may occur during the opening process, such as the validity of the rapid opening policy, the virus is spreading the spread of the virus is spreading.The changes in the process, etc., all of the above factors will become an effective policy basis for other countries next year.
Forecast 9: Green Transformation Technology and its raw material supply chain will continue to become a hot industry
The Hong Kong Globalization Center predicts that domestic technology will helpTo achieve the country's dual carbon goals, it also helps improve the efficiency of resources and energy utilization and energy security.
The center also believes that climate change and green transformation are forming a bipolar pattern dominated by China and the United States. Promoting the development of the green industry will also help strengthen China's international competitive advantage.
Forecast 10: The Yuan universe will still become a hotspot of technology investment
The Hong Kong Globalization Center estimates that Chinese technology giants will continue to bet the Yuan universe.
But the center believes that AR/VR glasses are just an port that entered the Yuan universe in the early days and will not be monopolized by a certain manufacturer.The Yuan universe with games and work space such as transmission functions is in the rise stage.
The center of the center is judged that the Yuan universe enters the sign of the higher level, that is, the use of virtual assets in the physical worldThis stage is being formed.
