The French Foreign Trade Bank expects that housing prices in Hong Kong will fall from

The French Foreign Trade Bank believes that under the comprehensive influence of rising loan costs, economic recession, and population outflow, Hong Kong's house prices will deepen next year.

According to Bloomberg, French foreign trade bank analyst Alicia Herrero and others wrote in a report on Wednesday (November 30) that it is expected that residential prices will fall 12%in 2023, 2024, 2024The year fell by 2%, from a high decline at the end of 2021 reached 25%.

Analysts have become more and more pessimistic about the Hong Kong residential market.The Hong Kong property market is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the global low interest rate environment.Goldman Sachs Group predicted that house prices in Hong Kong would fall by 30%compared with last year.

Due to the contact rate system, the one -month loan cost of Hong Kong has risen to the highest level since 2008.At the same time, the Hong Kong economy is shrinking.According to the French Foreign Trade Bank, by the end of this year, the GDP of Hong Kong (GDP) will be 3%lower than the pre -epidemic level, while the average increase in other parts of Asia will increase by 6%.

The decrease in the number of potential buyers and the decline in the attractiveness of Hong Kong as the financial center have exacerbated the pressure of selling.As the public escaped the prevention and control of the epidemic and the control of Beijing's control, in the 12 months of June, the Hong Kong population hit the largest decline in at least sixty years.

Analysts of French Foreign Trade Bank believes: "The significant decrease in immigration immigrants and the wave of outbound migration are even more fuel. For many years of epidemic, the competitiveness of Hong Kong has decreased.The pursuit of diversification of investment has also affected the attraction of Hong Kong. "

The situation may also be more optimistic.Analysts of the French Foreign Trade Bank said that the decline in real estate prices may prompt the government to take supportive measures such as stamp duty, which may enhance investors' confidence.Clearance speed with mainland China is faster than expected and will boost the market.

These analysts said: "Although there are no clear signs that the adverse factors of the periodic are fading, factors such as epidemic prevention restrictions and high interest rates should be weakened."