The designer behind the monetary issuance bureau system created in 1983, John Greenwood, who is known as the father of the exchange rate, said that if Hong Kong is willing to tolerate the "high sky" borrowing interest rate and short -term short -termEconomic pain can defend the exchange rate system linked to the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar.
According to Bloomberg, Greenwood said: "It is willing to raise the Hong Kong dollar interest rate to any level required for maintaining a fixed exchange rate, which is a price. However, the dislocation caused by the exchange rate fluctuations will be imported.Cost and capital markets have greater impacts. "
Hedie fund giant Bill Ackman and Boaz Weinstein are doing short Hong Kong dollars, tentatively connecting to the exchange rate system and making profit.Akman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, said that the contact rate system is no longer reasonable to Hong Kong.
He refers to a column of Richard Cookson.The article proposes that the socio -economic cost that needs to be paid to maintain the contact rate system is high.
Greenwood believes that although the financial environment appearing in shortness seems to be mature, these speculators underestimate the willingness to maintain the exchange rate system of the Hong Kong HKMA.This is because the fluctuation currency linked to the US dollar is still the biggest attraction of Hong Kong and the mainland for business. Hong Kong does not want to give up.
The Hong Kong dollar is mostly in the weak end of 7.75 to 7.85 connecting the exchange rate exchange guarantee interval this year, prompting the Hong Kong HKMA to enter the Hong Kong dollar to buy Hong Kong dollars, thereby pushing up the cost of lending.The three -month -old interim borrowing rate (Hibor) is currently 5.27%, the highest level since 2007.The long process of exiting the strict epidemic prevention and control also has an impact on the economy. It is expected that the degree of economic landslide will exceed expectations this year and next.
However, these signs of sluggishness failed to persuade Hong Kong to change the official position: As a response to Akman's remarks, the Hong Kong HKMA stated that Hong Kong neither had no intention of changing the contact exchange rate system.
Greenwood said: "As long as Hong Kong officials maintain high interest rates to attract capital flow, there will always be liquidity to fight these short positions. They will allow local interest rates to be higher than the sky instead of destroying 40 yearsThe exchange rate is stable. "
