Economic analysts lowered Hong Kong growth expectations today and next year

Affected by multiple adverse factors, economic analysts expect Hong Kong to be difficult to get rid of the deep atrophy of this year, and the economic growth next year will be lower than previous expectations.

Based on the medium -level value estimated by economic analysts participating in Bloomberg's latest survey, Hong Kong's GDP in 2023 (GDP) is expected to increase by 2.7 %, which is lower than the estimated estimation of analysts in August this year this year.3.5 %.

Analysts also lowered Hong Kong's GDP this year from atrophy 0.6 % to shrinking by 3 %.

The latest expectations are roughly consistent with the estimation of the Hong Kong government last week.Hong Kong Government officials predicted that Hong Kong's GDP this year will shrink 3.2 % year -on -year.

Bloomberg reported that the decline in economic growth is expected to reflect many unfavorable factors in Hong Kong, including rising global and local interest rates, weak trade, the slow pace of Hong Kong's outbreak prevention and control, and the economic situation of unstable mainland China.Essence

The data released by Hong Kong last month showed that GDP accidentally shrinking by 4.5 % in the third quarter was far lower than expected.

In another survey of six economic analysts, half of the respondents believed that the maximum downlink risk faced by the Hong Kong economy was that China was expected to withdraw from dynamic clearing.People believe that the global economic slowdown and the financial environment tighten.

Economist Chen, an economist of Oxford Economic Research Institute, said: "Although Hong Kong is reopening, we believe that the growth of economic activities will be difficult to offset huge resistance, including weak external demand, rising interest rates, and falling in house prices.And may withdraw the financial transfer of the family next year. "

He will reduce the decline in Hong Kong's economic growth from 0.8 % to shrinking by 3 % this year, and will reduce the growth rate of next year from an increase of 3 % to an increase of 1.4 by 1.4%.

Hu Dong'an, a senior economist of commercial banks in Germany, believes that the postponement of mainland China to re -open "means that the recovery of Hong Kong retail and tourism will be postponed."