• , Demonstrate boosting economic determination

  • Tighten capital and local debt centralized issuance.

  • The depreciation of the renminbi can be curbed, and the policy interest rate will be lowered to welcome the valuable time window

Data diagram/Florence Lo

The Central Bank of China ’s second reduction during the year, one drum, and the vibration of the real economy that is recovering the margin.Analysts pointed out that the recent funding of funds has continued to be tight and local government debt is issued. The long -term liquidity released by the RRRC can make up for the liquidity gap, and better cooperate with the implementation of active fiscal policies to form a policy synergy.

This reduction shows that the regulatory layer increases the determination of macro -control to boost the economy, and after continuous punching effectively contains the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, it also gives the central bank a larger loose currency space.Some analysts predict that the policy interest rate will still have a certain probability this month.

"This is another policy and measure to boost economic growth, showing the government's determination to stabilize the economy. This is a step in the correct direction," said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist of Baoyin Capital Management Company.

Liu Jie, director of the China Macro Strategy Department of Standard Chartered, said that the reduction is indeed expected, but the time to reduce it is earlier than the market expected. "This shows that the People's Bank of China may continue to relax the monetary policy boldly this year."

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that since August, the affected factors such as taxation, issuance of local bonds, and cross -month are intense. Considering the liquidity gap between the end of the month and the future of the end of the month, and the future of the futureIn the past few months, MLF maturity is relatively large. The central bank's reduction will help increase liquidity supply and stabilize market liquidity operation.

He further pointed out that after the launch of a series of fiscal and real estate policies in the early stage, the economic margin has recovered. However, considering that there is still downlink pressure on exports in the future, the central bank's approval will also make use of stimulating credit growth and further stabilityThe role of economic recovery.

Xinhua News Agency quoted relevant people from the Central Bank of the Central Bank of China that the reduction is expected to release the medium and long -term liquidity exceeding 500 billion yuan.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that during the year, the interest rate cuts were reduced twice, and the LPR quotation was reduced to land on the ground.Cost, enhance the stability and ability to operate, and continue to reduce the space expansion of physical financing costs for it.

At the same time, the implementation of the "Policy Treasures" plan is promoted and implemented. In the short term, it will be direction through debt replacement, extend the period of debt, and reduce financing interest rates. With the advancement of debt measures, hidden debt will be manifested.Maintain a loose and good financial environment to reduce debt costs and support support.

The People's Bank of China stated that it will be accurately and strongly implemented by a stable monetary policy, maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity, maintaining a reasonable growth in credit, and maintaining the growth rate of money supply and the growth rate of social financing.The exchange rate is basically stable, stably supports the continuous recovery of the real economy, and promotes the effective improvement of the economy and the reasonable growth of quantity.

The People's Bank of China will continue to do the mid -term loan convenience (MLF) expired in September on Friday; the National Bureau of Statistics of China will also announce data such as industrial added value, investment and consumption in August.

** Policy interest rate is expected to land faster **

Recently, the renminbi has stabilized the valuable window of China's loose monetary policy. At the same time, the pressure of shrinkage in August was eased, and the social merger increase showed signs of building a bottom.After the reduction, the policy interest rate is also expected to land quickly, so as to increase the easing policy to boost the effectiveness of the real economy.

A senior policy observer said that the current RMB exchange rate is stable. It is a favorable opportunity for China's relaxation interest rate policy. It does not rule out that MLF interest rates continue to be reduced on Friday.

He further pointed out that the current current CPI and PPI data have recovered. After the policy interest rate reduction, the actual credit interest rate of enterprises and residents can decrease, which will more effectively boost economic growth.

"Time cost is also an important policy consideration," he said.

"Although we still think that the possibility of MLF interest rate will be lowered tomorrow (Friday), it does not rule out the possibility of downward one year and 5 -year LPR interest rates next week," Liu Jie said. "These progress may be possible.As a result, China's interest rate is fully reduced, but the direct impact on the RMB may be relatively limited. "

Hu Yuexiao, a macro analyst of Shanghai Securities, also said that after the exchange rate stabilizes, the price of the price is confirmed that the timing of the rating will be mature, and the probability of reducing interest rate cuts will rise after the reduction.

The Huatai solid income team believes that tomorrow (Friday) MLF has a small probability of interest rate cuts, and the short -term "steady growth policy introduction+exchange rate restriction+preliminary interest rate cut effect" is being released.

The latest reviews of Citibank, also said that further interest rate cuts may not be imminent, especially when the real estate easing policy is steadily promoted and fiscal policy is ready.

The person in charge of the relevant departments of the Central Bank of China said on Wednesday that the rapid growth of monetary credit is compatible with the current economic situation that the national economy continues to recover and the overall recovery of the good economic situation;Effective demand for the real economy, support prices gently, and enhance economic vitality to create a suitable monetary and financial environment.