The next day in August, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen officially announced that they "do not recognize the house and do not recognize the loan."Some analysts lamented in the circle of friends: "This year's" Golden Nine Silver Ten "has a drama!"

It has been a month since the meeting of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China on July 24th that the "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies".There is a mortgage, as long as there is no real estate in the local area, you can enjoy the credit policy of buying the first house.Shenzhen immediately made the same announcement at the same night.

According to statistics, 12 first -tier and second -tier cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Xiamen are still "recognizing houses and loan."The cost of buying a house with too high houses brings great restrictions on those who need to replace the house.Guangshen's move released a clear policy signal, which also made the market look forward to other hot cities that can follow closely, and comprehensively relax the restrictions on house purchase.

In addition to "recognizing the house and not recognizing the loan", the central ministries and commissions have also released a favorable signal through various measures in the past month, such as continuing the implementation of preferential tax refund policies, indicating that the re -financing of listed housing companies is not broken, net and losing restrictions on losses.wait.The local government has accelerated the pace of loosening the property market. Zhejiang Jiaxing fully canceled the purchase restriction measures. Chengdu, Sichuan Chengdu, relaxed the qualifications of house purchase, and Xiamen, Fujian, also reduced the down payment rate of the loan loan of the second house ...

In addition, all parties show that a number of state -owned banks are preparing to adjust the interest rate of mortgage mortgages, and there will be action as soon as this week.

Under the escort of a series of loose policies, whether this year's "Golden Nine Silver Ten" can reproduce the past, it naturally has become the focus of market attention.

In the Mid -Autumn Festival and the Chinese National Day and National Day holidays, September and October each year are the peak wedding season. The number of people watching housing buying houses increase, and real estate developers have also increased their promotional efforts, thus becoming a traditional season for sales.However, in the past two years, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" has not only failed to drive the property market to recover, but has become more chilling.

In 2021, the official real estate cooling policy introduced densely based on the principles of "housing and living" continued to work, coupled with the debt problem such as Hengda and other heads of heads, which led to nearly six new housing prices in September in SeptemberFor the first time in the past, it has fallen for the first time.After a year, the more severe mobility crisis of housing companies overlay downward economic downward pressure, which has made the price of new houses in October the largest decline in more than seven years.

The Chinese property market has declined again after a short period of time this year. After the traditional sales off -season in July and August, some people in the industry are optimistic about the dual opportunity of the previous round of policy to be released by this round of policy.The fundamentals play a role in boosting.

It is understood that after Guangzhou's landing on the house "do not recognize the loan", there are already real estate companies to prepare for pushing, and intend to launch improved projects in September.Optimistic analysis believes that this measure can not only stimulate the demand for local buying, but also help stabilize the overall market expectations and have a expected guidance for the national market.

From the past experience, the release of purchase restrictions in first -tier cities can usually attract the buyers who have been watching before, release more strong demand for home buying, and then drive the pickup of second- and third -tier cities to recover, boosting the overall property market to recover.The last round of the property market rebounded, which happened after the first -tier cities in 2015.

However, compared with that year, China's economic situation, social environment, and population structure have undergone tremendous changes.Whether the prescriptions in the past still work have yet to be observed.What's more, the current property market still needs to withstand the comprehensive test of confidence.

House prices are in the top three in the country for a long time. This month, real estate is sold with "to cut prices", indicating that housing prices in first -tier cities are no longer strong.The Country Garden, known as the "first housing company in the universe", is questioning the difficulty of repaying debts on time.Another real estate giant Evergrande Group resumed trading this week after 17 months, and the stock price plunged more than 80 % in just three days ... The policy favored the booster of confidence, to to what extent can he hedge the market.Expectation of falling?

China officially released a number of stable market policies such as stock transaction stamp duty halved last weekend. The Lukang stock indexes only rose only two days this week.lack of confidence.It can be seen that if first -tier cities are fully relaxed, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" will still be cold, and confidence in the property market will be a greater blow.

In the long run, the greater risk of the Chinese property market is that with the slowdown of economic growth and the decrease in the new population, the demand for housing has continued to decline.

Wang Shi, founder and honorary chairman of the Board of Directors of China, Wang Shi, founded on a open forum last week. The era of fast -growing high -speed growth in the real estate market has ended. The adjustment cycle is inevitable reality.

Wang Shi pointed out that the average residential area of Chinese people has increased from 5 square meters in the early days of reform and opening up to 40 square meters. As the basic residence problems are resolved, "real estate will decline to peak."In addition, 80 % of commercial housing in China's property market is unique in the world. In the future, the market structure will inevitably change, and "the adjustment of enterprises will be very, very large."

From the Politburo Conference, not mentioning "housing does not fry", and to real estate tycoon to make a cautious prediction of the future, all show that the golden age of the Chinese real estate market has passed, and the mentality of buying a house to keep it is no longer the mainstream.This year, "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is not expected to get a big harvest. It is rare to stop freezing and recover for the market.