Although the Taiwan election is more than eight months old, a potential drama tension has been built in a bunch of polls.
The latest polls announced by the Taiwan Green Media Meili Island Electronics News on Monday (May 29) showed that the Democratic Progressive Party's chairman and presidential candidate and Vice President Lai Qingde were far ahead with 35.8%support.Not long ago, Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei, who was recruited by the Kuomintang, plummeted to 18.3%. It was overtaking by the Chairman of the People's Party and former Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe, with a significant lead of more than seven percentage points.
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The Lord of Kiss Blue Lord last Tuesday (May 23) was also the same.Hou Youyi's support was five percentage points less than the end of April, and 28%behind Lai Qingde and 27%of Ke Wenzhe were behind 24%.
The polls released by the online media "ETTODAY", which is political, showed that Hou Youyi's support is still leading Ke Wenzhe, but the gap between the two has narrowed, and Lai Qingde continued to sit in the first place.In addition, according to the policies released by the Dark Green Normal National Cultural Foundation Policy Center on the same day, Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe's support were 23%, and Lai Qingde was proud to support the group with 34%support.
Looking at the polls released by these four media or institutions, they can smell several information: first, Lai Qingde's support is still the highest; second, Hou Youyi lost to Ke Wenzhe in some polls; third,It is also the most concerned about some people in the blue camp. Hou Youyi's support fell below 20%.Some Lan Camp supporters said on the Internet: "This is the first time Hou Youyi (polls) have fallen below 20%, shocked!"
Huang Yanhan, a senior media person in Taiwan, posted on a social media Facebook that Hou Youyi had "entered the state of abandonment."In other words, in the triangle war, the non -green camp may choose to vote for Ke Wenzhe, who voted for the second ranking of polls, and gave up Hou Youyi.
The Kuomintang "changing columns" should become "waiting"?
Former Kuomintang legislator Qiu Yi, on Tuesday (May 30), also posted on Facebook that Hou Youyi's support was not far from 15%when the former Kuomintang presidential candidate Hong Xiuzhu was "replaced".And exclaimed, "Hou Youyi really pulls alert."
Hong Xiuzhu was nominated for the Kuomintang in 2015 to participate in the 2016 presidential election.However, her polls were not only unable to pull up, but also slipped from a high point from the beginning of the first more than 30%to about 15%. The opponent and the current Cai Yingwen at the time were greatly behind at that time.
The Kuomintang often passed the "Hongxia Zhu Shang" proposal at the final juncture to change the then mayor Zhu Lilun, the mayor of New Taipei to run for president.Zhu Lilun finally defeated, and the votes were more than 3 million.
Seven years after seven years, the signs before the above incident seemed to appear on Hou Youyi. Taiwan's public opinion has also recently had rumors of "changing Hou".Throughout the Kuomintang people, this is obviously not groundless.
The Kuomintang Kinmen County Council, Hong Yun Dian, who supported Guo Taiming, fired the first shot on Monday morning.In an interview, he said that rumors of "changing Hou" circulated recently, and expressed their support for Guo Taiming and Ke Wenzhe to participate in the election.
Zhang Yazhong, General President of Sun Wen School and Jiezhong of the Kuomintang, said in Facebook that if in late June, the Kuomintang Party Central Committee's self -developed polls and civilian credibility polls.Third, "this party must be adjusted in crisis."
He urged all the members of the Kuomintang to pay attention to the changes in the current situation and be brave. Once the polls in late June will still be inappropriate for the Kuomintang situation. "Take all necessary emergency response measures to solve the most important political crisis of the party's return to governance. "
Whether Zhang Yazhong pointed to "change Hou said", the answer is self -evident.As of the evening of Monday, neither Hou Youyi herself and the Kuomintang senior officials responded to this.
Earlier, the Kuomintang spokesman Lin Jiaxing responded when facing media inquiries. The whole party will unite and help Hou Youyi to successfully win the election. He must seriously refute his remarks such as holding a plenary session and "replacement of Hou".He emphasized that the Kuomintang will never have such a plan, and also ask party members to speak carefully and not let the supporters disappoint.
Lin Jiaxing said that the Kuomintang will refer to the external poll data, and said that it is expected that the Hou Youyi campaign office will be officially set up, which can make everyone feel more.Essence
Hou Youyi was called "falling" after being called by the blue camp?
Hou Youyi was officially called on May 17 to participate in the Taiwan election held in January next year.
At that time, the Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun also publicly said that the Kuomintang decided to recruit Hou Youyi for the election with the most scientific data and the joint opinion of the county mayor and legislators.Zhu Lilun has been a professor at a university accounting department, known as "political actuarial division".
The Kuomintang also threw out the results of polls, and tried to prove that Hou Youyi was the candidate for the strongest presidential candidate of the Blue Camp, not Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai.
According to the comprehensive comparison of polls published two weeks ago, according to the results of the Kuomintang Cultural Communication Commission, the comparison result of the comparison of polls two weeks ago -in the parties in the party, Hou Youyi supports 40.5%and Guo Taiming is 31.66%.Lai Qingde was 0.9%, Guo Taiming lost Lai Qingde 1.9%; if the three participated in the war, Hou lost 7.25%, and Guo lost 9.8%.According to the calculation of 85%and 15%of each other, the comprehensive score Hou received 51.15%, and Guo was 48.85%.
In short, it is optimistic that Hou Youyi is more capable of getting higher than Lai Qingde than Guo Taiming.However, two weeks later, Hou Youyi's polls did not rise and fall, and even lost to Ke Wenzhe.What happened?
Meilima Electronics News analysis: "Hou Youyi continued to be disturbed after running the president, which clearly impacted the people's identification with the Kuomintang and Hou Youyi, and led to the growth of blue and white support."
The China Rating Agency headquarters in Hong Kong also has the same point of view.The media posted on the official website in the early morning of Tuesday (May 30) that the main views believe that Hou Youyi had been alienated with the Kuomintang in the past. After Guo Taiming fought for nominations, he had not officially united with Hou Youyi.Therefore, compared with Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe for a long time, the Blue Army is still in the entire team, and Hou Youyi polls can naturally improve.
The article also mentioned that when Hou Youyi answered sensitive issues, the words were relatively conservative, and the content was often the same and lack of breakthroughs.
"The intention of Hou Youyi is obviously hoping to win the favor of middle voters and avoid being too losing points because of the speech.Understand. "
Qiu Yi's analysis is less merciful.On his Facebook, he listed three main reasons for Hou Youyi's polls.
First of all, Hou Youyi's attitude is too arrogant and too personal. Not only did he not work hard to reconcile with Guo Taiming, but indulged the people underneath to cooperate with Zhu Lilun's horses to humiliate Guo Taiming and anger Guo Taiming's supporters, resulting in increasing cracks.
Secondly, the poor performance of Hou Youyi's staff has led Hou Youyi's speech and repeatedly caused controversy, and he lacks judgment on Hou Youyi's schedule.For example, students from the political department of Taiwan University invited three presidential candidates to go straight to a straightball, and answered real questions. Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe went, but Hou Youyi was absent.
Qiu Yi said: "The invited Guo Taiming wrote on Facebook to talk about the young people's entrepreneurship, and it was also well received. This time, Hou Youyi was compared by all three, and the wind and the wind and set off in the voting of young people."
The third reason is that the Kuomintang Central Committee and Zhu Lilun provide limited help.Qiu Yi commented that in addition to the fuel of the party's speech, the party's speech was furious, and the supporters of Guo Taiming and Guo Taiming did not work hard to resolve the contradiction between Hou Youyi.
Qiu Yi, for example, said: "Today, Golden Gate has the welcoming grandfather around the world. It is the biggest event of Kinmen. Lai Qingde, Ke Wenzhe, and Guo Taiming are invited to participate."
In the end, Qiu Yi emphasized in the post that if the above three missions can be improved as soon as possible, Hou Youyi will still be saved, otherwise the polls will further fall, "The Mickey Nuo line of 15%is not far away!"
Hou Youyi ability to turn the tide?
Seeing that the situation is not good, the Blue Camp people have given Hou Youyi.Huang Yanhan posted on Facebook on Tuesday that Hou Youyi adopted the "Cross Suggestion" he had previously given, which was "policy, discussion, people and polls, and duties."
In terms of policy, Huang Yanhan believes that when talking about major issues such as the 1992 consensus and nuclear energy use, Hou You should explain the relevant content to the public in a simple and direct way.
As for the challenge of discussion, he is not optimistic about Hou Youyi's mouthfuls to make progress rapidly, but it is suggested that Hou Youyi should at least be willing and sincere; in the face of students invite to attend the event, or have a program interview, Hou Youyi should also take the initiative to fight.
Huang Yanhan also shows that Hou Youyi has recently visited the former President Ma Ying -jeou and others, which is not the point at all.He said: "They love the party and naturally stand up. The heart of the heart is Guo Taiming, and what should be won by Korea."
Huang Yanhan emphasized that as long as Hou Youyi can do these three points, the polls will naturally not collapse, and describe Hou Youyi's current situation, because it is less than two weeks before the Kuomintang calls for nominations, and the support of polls has fallen.Breaking 20 %.
"If Hou Youyi is willing to break the boat and change his head, there may be a chance, otherwise, 2024, trusting Taiwan (one of the slogans of the DPP), a few percent."
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In general, the polls are different for a while, and each family is different, but it is credible or not.However, the use of poll numbers to predict the chance of winning the election is not completely scientific.In the last presidential election, Tsai Ing -wen favored South Korean Yu. The polls between the two were ups and downs, which was quite consistent with the final outcome.
As for whether Hou Youyi will stage a post 2.0, it is currently interpreted by the outside world.To be sure, the four -year Taiwan election has begun in the extremely intense political wrestling.
