The CPC Central Finance and Economics Committee held the first meeting earlier this month to study population and economic issues and emphasize active response to the aging of the population.Scholars interviewees evaluated that China is imperative to improve the retirement age in moderation, but officials must further reform and open, make big economic cakes, and solve the current high unemployment problems of young people.

China's population decreased by 850,000 last year, the first time in 60 years, significantly, marking that the population crisis has become increasingly prominent.

The number of people's labor age has begun to decline as early as 2012, with an average annual decrease of more than 3 million.The number of employees has also decreased by more than 41 million in the past three years, which not only reflects the impact of the crown disease epidemic on the economy, but also shows that the working age population has accelerated.

Pension budget pressure has also increased sharply in recent years.According to data from the Ministry of Finance of China, 11 provinces and cities have already appeared in pension budget deficits.The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the pension system will exhaust their funds in 2035.

Peng Xianjian analyzed earlier analysis of Peng Xianjian, a senior researcher at the University of Victoria University in Australia that China's pension insurance system is no longer sustainable. At present, it fills the gap through richer provinces, but it is impossible to do so.

Jiang Quanbao, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development of Xi'an Jiaotong University, pointed out that as the elderly population in China has continued to increase and the expected life expectancy is prolonged, the poverty -stricken provinces are not wealthy, and the pressure of pension funds will be further increased in the future.

Delayed retirement age plan has caused people to be dissatisfied

In order to cope with the aging of the population and the exhaustion of pensions, the "14th Five -Year Plan" (2021 to 2025) planned by the Communist Party of China in March 2021 and the outline of the long -view target of 2035 proposed that "small step adjustments,The principles of elasticity implementation, classification advancement, and overall planning "are gradually delayed to delay the legal retirement age.

Since more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's legal retirement age has not changed. Male employees are 60 years old, female cadres are 55 years old, and female workers are 50 years old.In a society with aging and declining childization in Japan and Taiwan, most male and female employees retire their retirement pensions at the age of 65.

However, the government's plan to postpone the retirement age has caused public dissatisfaction. At that time, there were thousands of angry comments on Weibo, and the employees closest to the retirement age were the greatest.Young people believe that the increase in older employees will reduce their employment opportunities.

The employment situation of young Chinese groups has continued to be optimistic in recent years.According to the latest official data, the unemployment rate of young people from 16 to 24 in China in March this year reached 19.6 %, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from February.As more than 11 million fresh college graduates have entered the labor market one after another, the unemployment rate will continue to rise.

Faced with the resistance of the people, experts from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in China said in 2021 that the delayed retirement reform will not be "one step in one step", and it will be gradually implemented with the overall and smooth rhythm.Or delay for one month every few months, and complete reforms after several annual transition periods.In the early stage of the reform, the employees near retirement will only delay for one month or months, and will not retire for several years at once.

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Affairs also said that they will not engage in "one -size -fits -all", and they will not stipulate that everyone must reach the legal retirement age after delayed retirement. It will reflect a certain elasticity and increase the space for individuals to retire in advance.

Faced with the first time in the 60 years of the Chinese population, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in December last year to say that it will "implement the policy of gradual delay in the legal retirement age in a timely manner and actively respond to the aging of the population."

After taking over the State Council in March this year, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang also stated that he would carefully study and fully demonstrate the delayed retirement policy, and to launch it steadily at an appropriate time.

Treating the dissatisfaction of the public is "the hurdle that can't go through the past"

Yao Shujie, a professor of economics at Chongqing University, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the retirement age of current developed countries is generally more than 65 years old, and there are no men and women. In addition, the per capita life span continues to increase. China delays the legal retirement age."Trend", which gradually increases to the age of 60 to 65, is believed to be a feasible approach.

Tan Gangqiang, director of Chongqing Concord Psychological Consulting Firm, also believes that many Chinese elderly employees are currently retiring when they can play their value, delaying the retirement age to help release more human resources value.

But Yao Shujie pointed out that delayed retirement involves different interests and requires a balance between employees, enterprises, and countries. "It is indeed a stable advancement" to reduce the conflict between the parties.

The retirees in Wuhan, Hubei and Dalian, Liaoning, have greatly reduced their accounts and weakened medical benefits due to dissatisfaction. In February this year, they gathered in front of the municipal government to protest and demanded that the official restoration of the original regulations.

Yao Shujie expects that increasing the age of retirement has caused the public to be dissatisfied "I'm afraid it is a hurdle that cannot be detoured."Let "people have a better expectation, slowly digesting for a year or two", understanding the country's distress and reforms do not harm the interests of the people.

Tan Gangqiang pointed out that China had previously proposed that the delayed retirement age was opposed by the people, mainly because the overheading of public opinion on the New Deal can alleviate the contradictions of lack of pensions, but less discussing the value of human resources, and less comfortable young people to the year of the year.The long group extends the concerns of retirement occupation of positions.

He said that the current Chinese medical and health system is still inadequate, and some people have died shortly after retirement, which has also exacerbated the mood of resisting the retirement age in society.

Scholars: It is necessary to promote the total amount of pensions by promoting the economy

On the other hand, Yao Shujie believes that the retirement policy should be divided into the minimum legal retirement age, and voluntary delaying retirement, allowing employees to evaluate whether to retire on their own according to health status and revenue before and after retirement.He said: "In fact, many people are willing to do more for three or five years." But depending on the interest balance between the unit and the employees, the unit may consider more considerations that cannot introduce more newcomers and aging age structure and affect vitality.

He believes that China can use regional and industries to optimize the new policy according to the implementation effect, and then promote "it will be more secure" to the country.

Yao Shujie also judged that although increasing the retirement age can reduce the pressure on pensions, the more critical move is to promote more economic growth. By allowing the public to have a stable income and pay pensions, it will increase to increase the pension.In order to better resolve the budget deficit in this area.

Tan Gangqiang also believes that the current problem of pension deficit is mainly due to the decline in economic decline and insufficient pension payment, and the problem of young people's high unemployment rates also needs to be resolved.

He pointed out that from the perspective of developing a long -term economy, prioritize the development of the economy to "make big cakes" and "increase reform and opening up, and the market economy must not shake", create more positions that rely on innovation vitality, make full use of young peopleThe labor value, from the state -owned to the private economy to solve the problem of full employment.

Tan Gangqiang said that after most of the light labor force was used, the labor gap was extended to make up for the retirement. It is believed that the social resistance will be reduced.