Early
Jingqiang Xinyun
China on Tuesday (April 18) announced the economic transcript in the first quarter of the epidemic era. This is a set of data that is hidden.
It is gratifying that the Chinese economy has been significantly recovered, and the first quarter of this year has increased by 4.5 % year -on -year, achieving the "opening of the door" after the epidemic.This growth rate exceeded the earlier expectations of many economic analysts, showing that the recovery of the Chinese economy stepped into the right track.
From the "clear zero" policy that lasted three years in December last year, to the full cancellation of border control in January this year, and thinking about the changes in China in the past few months, some are like other generations.
After March, tourist attractions in various places are crowded with people, and restaurants are lined up.A while ago, I went to Guangzhou to travel on a business trip, and the price of air tickets and hotels rose out.Just in the past weekend, a friend reposted the prompt slogan to wear a mask in Beijing's major subway stations to be torn off, leaving a message "End of an era".All this is reminding that China has completely stepped out of the epidemic and the economic life returns to normal.
The pre -expected economic data in the first season indicates that China is expected to achieve the official growth goal this year.At the moment when the global economic prospects are dim, this is also a good world.
According to the latest predictions of the International Monetary Fund, in addition to 2020 when the crown disease outbreaks, this year's global economy may be the worst year after the 2008 financial crisis.The organization's president Georgieva predicts that China will contribute one -third of the world's economic growth this year.
In recent months, the executives of multinational enterprises have visited China one after another, which also shows that the outside world is optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese market.
Under the cloudy clouds that are decoupled from China -US technology and economy, American semiconductor leader Intel's new president Patrick Gelsinger visited Beijing last week to vote for confidence in China.He described clearly that the Chinese market plays a very important role in the Intel Development Strategy.
Before him, Cook, President of the United States, An Meng, President of Qualcomm, and the Global President of the Netherlands, ASML Global President Wen Ningke, and Lee Jae -hyun, the president of Samsung Electronics in South Korea, were all 3 in 3.The month has set off a round of visit to Hua Tide, and it is necessary to seize the big cake of the Chinese market.
However, the epidemic has a severe decline in the economy, and the sequelae brought about by the epidemic is difficult to be cured in just a few months, which has also made some analysts cautiously recovering the Chinese economy's continued recovery.
One of the sequelae is employment.The latest data shows that in March this year, the national urban survey rate of unemployment fell from 5.6 % in February to 5.3 %, but the bad news is that the youth unemployment rate has risen for the third consecutive month, and the unemployment rate of population 16 to 24 has risen to 19.6.%, Second only to the historical high of 19.9 % in July last year.
WeChat public account "Daily Character" recently mentioned in a report that delivery of takeaway is a industry without a threshold. As long as he is willing to suffer, he can make money stably;The little boss and university graduates who couldn't find a job poured in, and the takeaway riders were full of people.Although it is only written in the takeaway industry, the reality of the Chinese employment market, especially the employment environment of young people, can see Micro.
The severe employment environment spreads consumer power and consumption willingness.The emergence of the epidemic for a long time has been recovering recently, but the consumption recovery of durable products is not strong. Instead of spending money, more Chinese still choose to plan ahead.According to data released by the People's Bank of China in early April, in terms of consumption, savings and investment willingness, residents who tend to "more savings" this year still account for 58 %.At a high position.
The confidence in private investment in the past few years has yet to be boosted because of the epidemic and regulatory reasons.In the first quarter of this year, China's private investment only increased slightly by 0.6 %; although house prices had signs of stability, the investment in real estate developers in the first quarter fell 5.8 % year -on -year, showing that the industry was facing the pressure of cash depletion and debt defaults.When the warm air, there is a stronger land to get land and start new project willingness.
In addition, the structural problems of some Chinese economy have intensified during the epidemic, and it is still a high sword.Taking local government debt issues as an example, the economic growth of the epidemic has slowed down three years, the income of land transfer has decreased sharply, the premium and control expenditure of epidemic prevention has risen.Recently, the official think tank report in Guizhou Province in the southwest has revealed that some local governments have faced the debt problems that are important and urgently needed to solve.
The foundation of the Chinese economy is not bad. After all, China has a huge consumer market. In the decades after the reform and opening up, China has also experienced amazing rapid development.Because of this, when China opens the border and comes out of the epidemic, it has begun to restore the order of economic life, and the outside world still has positive expectations for China.
But the three -year toss of the epidemic has caused the Chinese economic vitality to be injured. It has exacerbated some structural problems and also made some problems that are easily covered at the stage of high economic development and become more tricky.On the one hand, it is necessary to resolve the sequelae of the epidemic for three years, on the one hand, to solve the accumulated structural illness that has been accumulated over the years, and to face the more unfavorable international economic environment and foreign demand situation, the sustainable recovery of China's economy is still long -term.
