The large -scale rebound of consumption and exports has been boosted. China's economic excessive increase in the first quarter of this year has increased by 4.5 %, paving the way for the annual economic growth to meet the standards, and injecting a strong needle into a weak global economy.However, the degree of heating in various fields is uneven, and the market is still worried that the strong recovery momentum can last.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Tuesday (April 18) shows that the first quarter of the domestic GDP (GDP) increased by 4.5 % year -on -year, which was significantly improved from the 2.9 % of the fourth quarter of last year.The market expects 4 %.
After the economic growth rate was far lower than the target last year, the Chinese government set the target this year at about 5 %.With the "opening of the door" in the first quarter of the economy, analysts generally expect that the economic growth rate of the year will not be a problem.Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted that China and India will be the largest contributor to global economic growth this year.
Xie Dongming, director of Research, Director of the Greater China of Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank, was predicted during an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that due to the severe decline of economic prevention and control in the second quarter of last year, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year is expected to reach 8 %, which drives the economic growth in the first half6 %."Although the growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, as long as there is no major change, the economy can not only easily break through 5 %, but may even exceed 5.5 %."
China has greatly relaxed the epidemic prevention policy in December last year, driving the value -added of the service industry in the first quarter of this year, a significant increase of 5.4%, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods also stopped falling, an increase of 5.8%year -on -year.The total number of social zero in March has soared by 10.6 % year -on -year, the largest increase in the past two years.
The export performance far exceeds the expected exports is another major economic growth engine in the first quarter.The total import and export of goods in the first quarter increased by 4.8 % year -on -year, of which exports increased by 8.4 %, and the export volume increased significantly by 23.4 % in March.
However, not all fields are recovering rapidly.In the first quarter, the growth rate of industrial added value and fixed asset investment above designated size was lower than expected.Folk investment continued to downturn, only 0.6%in the first three months of this year; real estate development investment continued to shrink, a year -on -year decrease of 5.8%.
In addition, the employment market and residents' income have not yet stabilized.The unemployment rate of youth surveys from 16 to 24 years old rose to 19.6%in March, second only to 19.9%of the record in July last year.Although the unemployment rate of urban surveys in the country has fallen at the same time, it is still at a high level of 5.3%.After deducting inflation factors, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country actually increased by 3.8 % in the first quarter, lower than the growth rate of GDP and consumption during the same period.
A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, admitted at a press conference on Tuesday that the international environment is still complex and changing, the domestic demand is not restricted, and the foundation of China's economic recovery is not firm.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, analyzed that the unemployment rate was high, and the income growth of residentstable.The slowdown in investment growth, especially private investment, indicates that the market expects has not fully recovered.
As the global economic growth slows down, Wang Jun predicts that China's exports will fall in the second quarter, and the overall economy is likely to drag the overall economy in the second half of the year.This means that China's economy will rely more on domestic demand. "In the next stage, policies should be more regulated to solid employment, expand income, and boost confidence, and drive the steady growth of investment and consumption."
Xie Dongming also believes that the first quarter of economic data is halfway, indicating that the current economic recovery is uneven, and how long the rebound can last is to be observed.But he is optimistic about China's exports "more tough than expected", and domestic demand will steadily rise.Therefore, he is expected that the government will not introduce great stimulus measures in the short term, including the central bank will not cut interest rates like this.
