Under the policy of "clearing zero" of the epidemic prevention, many institutions and banks have recently lowered their predictions on China's economic growth.However, interviewed analysts are optimistic and judged that China will gradually relax the epidemic prevention policy after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and promote economic development next year.
The latest report written by Bloomberg Society on Thursday (September 22) quoted the Goldman Sachs economist such as Stickfish stated that the Chinese government will continue to adhere to strict epidemic prevention policies in the first quarter of next year, and significantly reduce economic growth to China next year's economic growth next year.The predictions were reduced from 5.3%previously predicted to 4.5%, and predictions that maintained a 3%growth rate this year.
TheReport also predicts that China is unlikely to restart to the outside world before the second quarter of next year, unless the vaccination rate of crown disease vaccines in the elderly will increase.
According to the Dow Jones News Agency, the Asian Development Bank also reduced China's growth forecast this year from 5.0%to 3.3%.
Asian Development Bank predicts that if China does not include China, the economy of Asian developing countries will increase by 5.3%this year.
Asian Kaixing said in a statement: "This will be the first time that the economic growth rate of other developing countries in Asia over 30 years has surpassed China for the first time."
The report released by the International Monetary Fund at the end of July also predicts that China will achieve 3.3 % economic growth this year, lower than 4.4 % of the growth forecast in April.
Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the predictions of the above institutions and banks for the Chinese economy basically pushed some negative factors basedFrom the perspective of historical context, they have a relatively pessimistic view of the Chinese economy.
Wang Jun's optimistic assessment: "Many things will change and produce new factors. These will affect the trend of the future economy."
He also believes that the epidemic prevention policy cannot be simply attributed to the main factor affecting the current Chinese economy. The price of international commodities caused by the Russian conflict and the ups and downs of the US economy must also be included.
Xie Dongming, director of the Research Director of the Greater China Bank, who accepted the Lianhe Morning Post, believes that clearing the zero -epidemic prevention policy is a major key to the slowdown of China's economy.
He said that due to the repeated epidemic in China and continuous control, the confidence of the residential sector's confidence in the future market has become increasingly slippery, so this has also restricted consumer expenditure to a large extent."They are unwilling to consume, and then they are willing to exist the money."
Data released by the People's Bank of China in July shows that deposits increased by 1.882 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about S $ 3.77 trillion) in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.77 trillion yuan year -on -year.
However, the two interviewed experts were optimistic and judged. After the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held on October 16, the Chinese government will gradually relax the epidemic prevention policy and further drive China's economic development next year.
Wang Jun said: "I think there will be an optimization process ... This fall and winter this year is a good observation time period to test this coronal virus.Relevant departments will make corresponding adjustments based on this. "
