Cai Yan said that the Chinese population reached its peak this year, which was unexpected.According to the predictions of the United Nations in 2019, China's total population will not reach its peak until 2030.Later, the population entered a negative growth. "This brings unprecedented demand -side challenges and has a huge constraint on China's economic growth. He said:" Since 2023, the Chinese population has entered negative growth, so consumption will be curbed.
Cai Yan, deputy chairman of the National People's Congress Agricultural and Rural Commission, and chief expert of the National High -end Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China's total population will reach its peak in 2022, and then the population will enter negative growth. "This brings unprecedented demand side.Challenges have a huge constraint on China's economic growth. "
According to the China News Agency, "Haichuang Forum · 2022" opened on Wednesday (September 7) in Beijing. Cai Yan gave a special speech around "the current economic situation and future development trend".
Cai Yan believes that China's population trends are irreversible.Thirty years before the reform and opening up, the high -speed development of China's economy is inseparable from the help of demographic dividends, but in 2010, China's working age population reached its peak. In 2022, China's total population will also reach its peak. "China's population has entered negative growth since 2023.As a result, consumption will be curbed. "
According to Futures Daily, on September 6, Cai Yan said at the main forum of 2022 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum that the Chinese population reached its peak this year, which was unexpected.According to the predictions of the United Nations in 2019, China's total population will not reach its peak until 2030.The seventh census data shows that China's total fertility rate is only 1.3, which means that a couple only has 1.3 children, which is at a low level in the world.To maintain the continued growth of the population, a couple must have at least 2.1 children.
Cai Yan believes that from the perspective of the supply side, due to the decrease in labor age, the decline in potential growth rate will be faster than the original prediction.From the perspective of demand, the population generally affects consumption from the total population, economic growth, age structure and income distribution, which will have a certain impact on consumption, so that demand restricts the normalization of economic growth.In the "carriage" that drives economic development, in the future, the support of residents 'consumption will be more and more supported by residents' consumption.
Cai Yan said that the constraint on the demand side of the situation, China needs to promote common prosperity.An important aspect of promoting common prosperity is to substantially reduce the income gap through re -distribution methods.
The China Gini coefficient is still significantly higher than 0.4, and the gap between urban and rural income accounts for half of them.According to the research of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD), when rural labor has shifted from rural to cities, the consumption level can increase by 30 %. Once you obtain urban hukou and become urban residents, the consumption level can increase by 30 %.Cai Yan said that this means that the demand side can also benefit from the reform of the household registration system, which can increase residents' income, consumption power and consumption tendencies, and stabilize the overall social needs.
Du Xixue, the head of the National Health and Health Commission's Population Monitoring and Family Development Department, said at a press conference on Wednesday that China's population development is facing profound and complicated situation changes.First, with the further release of the long -term accumulated population growth potential energy, the growth rate of the total population has slowed significantly; the second is that the total fertility rate is at a lower level, which has fallen to below 1.3 in recent years; the third is deepening aging; fourth is the miniaturization of the family.In 2020, the average family households fell to 2.62; the fifth was regional imbalances, and the population and development contradictions in areas and lack of resources in areas and lack of resources are still relatively prominent.
The China Population Forecast Report of the Popular Population of Think Tank 2021 predicts that the Chinese population will decrease to 1.264 billion by 2050, and the Chinese population will drop to 685 million in 2100, accounting for a world -ratio rate from 18 % to 6.5 %.
