Early
Northern Remember
"It's three years, the new crowns are old." On the morning of Wednesday (30th), someone in the WeChat circle of friends uploaded a Weibo screenshot, which is the message from a Chinese Weibo blogger in China.The blogger wanted to make a joke with the name of the coronal virus that raged the sky, and said a playful words, but made people laugh, but felt speechless and weak.
For three years of epidemic prevention, China can't go end.Many countries in the world have survived the severe stage of the epidemic, abandoning the pursuit of zero targets, and opening the portal to the outside world. China still emphasizes that "lying down and no way out."The direct and indirect costs brought by epidemic prevention have stacked the original factors at home and abroad, and the Chinese economy recovers.Nowadays, not only the annual growth goals set by the central government will be difficult to reach at about 5.5%of the annual growth goals. Economists are even worried that the enthusiasm of enterprise investment and the decline in residents' consumption confidence will form a "permanent economic scar" for China's long -term potential growth rate.Some people are worried that after this year, can China return to 5%to 6%of medium and high -speed growth after the next year?
At this moment, Chengdu, western cities in western China, also entered the state of sealing. 21 million residents were ordered to be at home from 6 pm on Thursday. The residential community accepted the control management.It is proved to go out once and buying living materials nearby. It is necessary to leave Chengdu.Although the official notice did not use the word "sealed city", the above -mentioned scenes were not the same as the city.
Chengdu is another large cities in China after April of this year, and it is undoubtedly worse for Chengdu, which has just encountered a drought and electricity blow.According to the official division standard, there are seven large cities in China, ranking sixth in Chengdu.Also this week, the epidemic in Shenzhen, another large city in southern China, has become severe. Shenzhen Nanshan, Dapeng, Luohu, Futian, Longgang, Longgang and Longhua Six areas have been implemented, large -scale meetings, exhibitions, etc.The business is suspended in the interior closed places; the dangers are suspended, and some street residents are more strict restrictions and are required to "not leave home."
another large city of Guangzhou, 16 positive cases were found in this epidemic. The local government did not dare to slack off. Some streets and buildings in Haizhu District implemented the management measures for "not leaving the house".Shanghai has also strictly managed clustering activities this week, insisting on "non -necessary and not holding", offline meetings, training, exhibitions, etc., which can be postponed to be postponed.
Reuters quoted the assessment of Capital Economics that 41 cities in China are responding to the rebound of the epidemic at present, reaching the highest in April this year, and the GDP of these 41 cities accounts for 32%of the whole China.At present, the impact of this round of epidemic prevention measures on the economy is still small, but as Chengdu has also entered the control, its impact will be more obvious.
In fact, since the outbreak of the crown disease in 2020, China has not experienced difficulties in difficulties. In early 2020, Wuhan Fengcheng, at the end of 2021, Xi'an Fengcheng, in April of this year, two months in Shanghai, it is a difficult day.In contrast, the scale of the wave of epidemic rebound in Chengdu was a little witch compared to Shanghai at that time.Before Shanghai was closed on April 1, more than 4,000 new cases on March 1st (including asymptomatic infections) on March1, and 157 new cases in Chengdu (August 31) this Wednesday (August 31) were 157 (including noneSymptoms), but the local government has taken control measures quickly.
It can be seen that the managers of Chinese cities are particularly nervous. Everyone is afraid of becoming "the next Shanghai". They want to cut off the spread chain as soon as possible, even if they have to bear economic costs.One of the self -evident factor is that China ’s most important political agenda this year -the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is nearly now, and it will only be held in one and a half months.
Be sure to have the 20th National Congress of peace. Do not happen before the 20th National Congress. Do not loose the epidemic prevention. I am afraid that it is the priority of local officials.If the epidemic spread and spread on a large scale at this sensitive time point, it affects the stable situation that must be taken care of, and destroys the atmosphere of enthusiastic and affirming the zero policy before the conference.Maybe Wuya landed.
China's senior management also indirectly reminded party and government officials that the epidemic prevention should not be "broken" at this time.The website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection issued an article on August 31st, warning that "facing the epidemic, there is no way out", emphasizing that "the more adhere to the dynamic clearance, the sooner the epidemic can be controlled."" ".This means that although the State Council of China has continuously increased the "stable economy", the necessary relaxation measures for revitalizing the economy, including the obvious loosening of the flow of domestic and overseas personnel, can not be seen until the 20th National Congress.
So, after the 20th National Congress, will the official adjust the zero policy immediately?It doesn't seem to be.Winter is another high -risk moment of epidemic diseases. The loosening of epidemic prevention policy may also be next spring.
Since the outbreak of the crown disease, China's vigorously popular epidemic prevention policy has achieved great achievements, but then it is trapped in the achievements of the clearing policy, and it has also dragged the economy, as if it was early and rushed to a late collection.However, optimists believe that with the huge and deep growth potential of the Chinese market, the United States launched a trade war in China. As long as the epidemic prevention measures are loosened, the Chinese economy will rebound quickly.
However, the Chinese government has repeatedly emphasized that "coexistence with the virus" will cause a large number of lives and casualties. Example explains that many "coexistence countries" pay a heavy cost of life. How can it come down from a strict epidemic prevention policy and exit process.What price does it need to be prepared to face?Many of these questions to be answered, just wait for the 20th National Congress.
