The former deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the chief expert of the National High -end Think Tank of the Academy of Social Sciences, and Cai Yan, a member of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, said that it is necessary to pay attention to the negative growth of the population, but it does not need to be too pessimistic. The core is to create conditions.Make other factors change, use quality replacement quantity, and use productivity replacement factor input.
According to surging news reports, Cai Yan believes that the current negative growth of the population marks the advent of a new era. It is irreversible. "From then on, the population of our country is reduced every year. Small fluctuations, but this trend cannot be changed. "He particularly emphasized that my country is no longer moving towards aging, but has entered an aging society. Two of them: one is the negative population growth, the other is an aging node that spans key key nodes. Essence
With the development of economic and social development, the process of fertility rates from high to low generally occurs around the world. The higher the level of human development, the lower the fertility rate, which is directly related.However, the special national conditions of China make the negative growth of the population a bit complicated and urgent.Cai Yan pointed out that China has the process of not being rich first, and the fertility rate, aging, and population growth have come earlier than the per capita income level, and it is also earlier than previously expected."The superiority of the old and old and unexpectedly brought additional challenges, which requires great importance."
Cai Yan further pointed out that a new impact brought by deeper aging -—The demand -side impact, especially consumer demand has gradually become a normalized constraints of economic growth, not cyclical. It is called "long -term stagnation" internationally. Its iconic performance is low interest rates, low inflation, low growth, and high debt.These factors may change due to the epidemic and inflation, but they may eventually return to their own development line. The root cause behind this is the aging population.Of course, China will show certain characteristics in its own way, and China's response strategy is to make efforts from the supply side and demand side.The goal of the supply side is to excavate the supply of production factors, make the labor force more fully, the capital use is more efficient, and the facilities are more efficient; and the demand side is the core is to promote the common prosperity of all people.
In Cai Yan's view, the population stock can provide more opportunities.More than 900 million labor age population, etc., is both the source of labor supply and the basis of the consumer market. By improving income distribution, it has improved the consumption ability and consumption willingness of these people.sex.
Talking about "creative destruction", Cai Yan believes that the improvement of future productivity is more dependent on creative destruction.Creative destruction can destroy backward industries, damage enterprises without productive forces, excess capacity, and even some positions that no longer exist, but cannot destroy people.Therefore, it is necessary to establish a social welfare system covering the whole people and covering the whole life cycle. It can protect all the people from the social level and allow the micro level to no longer need to protect backward.
Cai Yan said that the negative population growth and aging changed some things, such as the population support ratio.The meaning of population support is how many retirees can support the age of labor.The population support is gradually changing, the labor age is getting less and less, and more and more retirees have changed. The proportion between the two changes.In the era of negative population growth, the population raising is faster.This fundamentally changes the idea of the social security system. Pension insurance and medical insurance have the nature of cash and payment. In the case of changes in the population support ratio, the current collection and payment system is not sustainable. Pension insurance must be necessaryThere are new understanding and new design.
