At the "New Era China Fiscal Policy" forum organized by the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore, Bai Zhongen, Dean of the School of Economics Management of Tsinghua University, warned that China's population aging and government land sales revenueDecreased the test of national fiscal sustainability must be the financial open source through optimizing the structure and income model.
Bai Zhongen, dean of the School of Economics Management of Tsinghua University, judged that fiscal difficulties are one of the important factors to promote the turn of China's epidemic prevention policy at the end of last year.The greater risk faced by the fiscal system is that the decision -making layer is tired of responding to short -term impacts such as epidemics, and there is no effort to plan long -term development.
On Friday (January 13) at the "New Era of China's Fiscal Policy" hosted by the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore, Bai Chongen warned that China's population aging and government sales revenue decreased, which caused national financial sustainabilityThe test must be the financial open source by optimizing the spending structure and income model.
Bloomberg, based on the data of the Ministry of Finance of China, the overall fiscal deficit of China reached 7.75 trillion yuan (RMB, the same, the same, S $ 15,300) in the first 11 months of last year.The crown disease outbreak of 2020 years.On December 7, the official introduced the "New Ten Articles" to optimize prevention and control, which greatly relaxed the control of epidemic prevention.
Land transfer income has created a double -digit decline in almost per month since last year
Bai Zhongen pointed out that as China's aging intensifies, pension and medical expenses will increase, and decreased aging labor force will lead to a decline in fiscal revenue.In addition, the pace of urbanization with a slowdown in housing rates means that the revenue of local government's long -term dependence on sale is increasingly decreasing.This constitutes two long -term challenges for China's finance.
Since last year, China's land transfer revenue has reached a double -digit decline almost every month.In November, the land use rights transfer revenue of governments in various local governments was 715 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 13 %.
Bai Zhongen admits that he has not seen high -level discussions on the above -mentioned long -term topics because they are busy dealing with short -term risks such as epidemic and geopolitical tensions."These short -term shocks have absorbed all energy and oxygen, leaving for long -term factors, especially the long -term financial sustainability space left. This is unfortunate."
The University of California, the University of California (UCSD), Chinese economic expert Barry NaUGHTON, and the associate professor of UCSD Political Economics, Victor Shi, and Albert Park, chief Economist of Asia Development Bank.The increasing contradiction between China's fiscal expenditure demand and decreased income has expanded, and it needs to ensure that the fiscal sustainable development is urgently needed through system reform.
Norton pointed out that in the past 10 years, the proportion of Chinese government's revenue accounted for the continuous decline in the proportion of GDP (GDP), and the demand for expenditure in various fields has continued to expand, and the high deduction of high tax deductions during the epidemic situation has further intensified this trend.At the same time, the reform of China's fiscal system has been promoted slowly, and no breakthrough progress has been made in clarifying the right to clarify the rights and reform of the tax system.
Norton noticed that the Chinese government often set up many quasi -fiscal institutions in order not to add a direct burden on fiscal, such as local investment platforms and government -led funds to meet increasingly growing expenditures.However, he took a chip fund that broke the corruption scandal last year as an example that such quasi -fiscal funds will cause new distortions and new moral risks to the economy.
Huang Peihua, a visiting scholar visited by the National University of East Asia who hosted the forum, pointed out that looking back at China's reform history, reform is often driven by crisis.She recalled that in a workshop in around 2015, I asked the former Treasury Minister Lou Jiwei on a workshop. When is China's next large -scale fiscal reform?Lou Jiwei responded that it was the urgency of the central government's lack of fiscal and no money to promote the financial reform in 1994.Huang Peihua asked: "Is China coming to such a moment now?"
