Yi Gang, the president of the People's Bank of China, predicts that China's CPI trend is low and high, and the average increase is expected to be less than 2%.The external epidemic situation, economic recovery and macro policies are uncertain, and the pressure on inflation and shrinkage from all aspects must not be taken lightly.
According to Bloomberg, Yi Gang delivered a keynote speech at the Lujiazui Forum, considering that the Chinese economy is operating in a reasonable range, near the potential output level, the overall price trend is controlled, and the monetary policy must be compatible with the new stage of development.Adhere to the stability of the word, adhere to the implementation of normal monetary policy, especially focusing on the balance of supply and demand for cross -cycles, and grasp the strength and rhythm of the policy.
Yi Gang said: "Although the domestic interest rate level is higher than that of major developed economies, it is still relatively low in developing countries and emerging economies. It is maintained at a suitable level, which is conducive to the stable and healthy development of various markets."
Generally speaking, if the economy does not reach potential output, the monetary authorities can stimulate the total demand for monetary policy stimulation; if the consumption price rises too fast, the monetary authorities will have the motivation to tighten liquidity and flatten inflation pressure.Yi Gang's statement shows that the current monetary policy intensity and market interest rate are close to the central bank's intention level, which helps stabilize market expectations.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Wednesday shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in May (CPI) in May increased by 1.3%year -on -year, lower than expected; and the year -on -year growth rate of industrial producers' factory price index (PPI) rose to the highest year -on -year increaseAnd beyond market expectations, the inflation pressure continues to rush up, under the drive of the price increase and base effect of large commodities in the month, or further exacerbate global inflation concerns.
Yi Gang analyzed that the prices of commodities such as global crude oil have risen rapidly recently.The global inflation level has risen in a short period of time this year, but there is huge differences in whether inflation can continue for a long time.During the epidemic of China last year, the normal monetary policy was adhered to. The overall demand in China was relatively stable, which was conducive to maintaining the overall price of prices.
Yi Gang said: "Since this year, PPI has increased higher, which is related to the low base formed by the negative growth of PPI last year, so we can use the overall perspective of the three consecutive years of last year and next year to observe the PPI change."
