Social Act
May 3, 2021
The National Bureau of Statistics of China issued a statement on its official website on April 29 that the Chinese population "continued to grow" in 2020, which indirectly denied reports about the first shrinking of the Chinese population in 60 years.However, the Statistics Bureau's statement of only one line of words did not announce the specific figures, only stated that it would be released in the seventh national census bulletin.The Bureau of Statistics was originally scheduled to announce the census data in April, but there is still no news so far.According to data released by other Chinese departments, the number of Chinese newborn babies has declined over the years.The aging and atrophy of the Chinese population structure will have a profound impact.
According to Chinese media reports, since the official adjusts the basic national policy of "one childization" in 2016, and implemented the "comprehensive two -child" policy, the newborn population in that year reached the peak of 2000, reaching 17.86 million, but afterwards, it continued to be largeFall, the birth of the birth of 2017 fell to 17.25 million, in 2018 was 15.23 million, and in 2019 to 14.65 million.The newborn population has decreased sharply. Cities with centralized medical and educational resources are the most significant. In Beijing, which is the first place in the country, the number of household registration population in 2020 is only 100,000, a new low of 10 years, and a decrease of 24.3%compared with 2019.
In some big cities, the total population has shrunk due to the fact that the newborn population is not as dead.Of the 26 prefecture -level cities recently disclosed the population information, the natural growth rate of eight cities has a negative value, including the relatively developed Jiangsu Province.Atrophy.The birth rate of urban population lower than rural areas is a common phenomenon of countries. After years of efforts, the rural population in China has been less than 40 % in 2019, making the phenomenon of insufficient fertility rates more serious.
The People's Bank of China issued a work paper in mid -April that the Chinese population situation has been reversed, the speed of population attenuation will be beyond imagination, and education and scientific and technological progress will be difficult to make up for the impact of population decline.But in China, which is "politically" in everything, the objective facts of the population scale have become political sensitivity.This may be the reason why the official deny the atrophic of the population, and on the other hand, there is no reason why the data is not released.In 1979, the "one -fetalization" policy promoted in 1979 has long been regarded as an unquestionable basic national policy, which led to the opportunity to repeatedly miss the adjustment of the authorities.Various negative effects.
The most direct impact is the pressure on the reform of the urban pension system. When the population shrinks rapidly, the existing working population must worry about how the pension system will continue in the future.However, increasing the current pension payment rate will increase corporate costs on the one hand and indirectly pushing the unemployment rate; on the other hand, it will also suppress social consumption, slow down the pace of economic recovery, and even further crack down on fertility.However, without reform, it will face the problem of bankruptcy of the pension system, combat the stability of social people and the authority of the CCP rule.
As the central bank warned, the challenges of the shrinking population in China could not make up with education and scientific and technological progress.China wants to change from the "world factory" to the "world market", so as to sit up with the United States, relying on the population scale and consumption capacity.
Population atrophy will not only weaken China's production and consumption strength at the same time, but also affect China's rise strategy and international influence.When investing in investment decisions, foreign investment will also consider the relatively young India and Southeast Asia regions at the same time.When evaluating diplomacy against China in the West, I am afraid that the future population trends and scale will be considered.
Although the aging and shrinking of the population is a challenge faced by all developed economies, for China, its impact is beyond the border.China's rise has always been a major international geopolitical theme in the Cold War era. The judgment of the world economic center of gravity moved eastward is based on this premise.The concerns about the country's not the first old age have always been the main concern of the Chinese strategic community.As the results of the seventh national census are postponed, the challenges of the aging of China's population and even shrinking will get closer.This fact will have a profound impact on China and the world.
