The death of the judge became the October surprise of the American election

Author: Yan Zhensheng

Representative of the Supreme Court of the United States MDASH; Judge Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has passed away a few days ago, giving Trump a chance to appoint a conservative judge before election, and this decision is veryIt may cause the two parties to be more polarized, but there are also many variables in the November presidential election and even the elections of senators.If you vote for successor candidates next month, it is likely to become a surprise in October this year.

The situation where the Supreme Court of Court of Supreme Court was in less than 50 days in the presidential election, which was indeed very rare.In history, only President Lincoln, the chief judge Roger B. Taney died 27 days before the presidential election in 1864.President Lincoln continued to promote new nominations after his appointment was extended to his re -election.In the past 4 years, the conservative judge Antonin Scalia died in mid -February 2016. At that time, Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Senator, believes that President Obama should not appoint a new year of election year.Judge, instead left this opportunity to the next president, so he just put on Herrick Garland nominated by Obama to prevent him from entering the program.

However, McConno now has to choose Trump's nominee to open the express train at least 4/5 over the time of the schedule in 2016 to complete the nomination, that is, or not to vote before the election, or you can use the new presidential presidentThe right duck session before taking office exercises the right to consent.This is basically completely conflicty with the reason why the Republican vowed in 2016, but obviously this is not their consideration, and Trump has already prepared a list and is ready to launch a nomination procedure at any time.Lindsey Graham, chairman of the Senate Judicial Committee, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, previously strongly expressed his views and applied to the situation of any year of election. Now he has made a big turn of 180 degrees. He not only did not apologize to the public., Even said that the program will be forcibly opened, and they are completely unwilling to admit their mistakes.

Because the Republican Party has an advantage of 53 to 47 in the current Senate, as long as it does not exceed 3 Republican senators to run tickets, the possibility of completing nominations is quite high.Republican senators of two women have said they are unwilling to support this approach, namely Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Susan Collins in Maine. In addition, the Democratic Party also hopes mildlyMitt Romney, a Senator of Utah, and the nominated by Republican Presidential President in 2012, can oppose Trump and McConno.But even if Romney runs, the Democratic Party is still a vote. Will Cory Gardner in Colorado become a key vote due to election considerations?There will still be other Republican senators, which will be the focus of observation in the next few weeks.

At present, the Supreme Court is a conservative situation of 5 seats and liberals. However, chief judge John Roberts sometimes stands on the liberal side, allowing liberals to include Obamacare, including Obamacare)In the case of some cases, there are 5 to 4 micro -majority.However, if Trump can nominate a conservative judge to take over the position of Kingsberg, it will allow conservatives to have a 6-3 advantage for most of them. In the futureObergeFell vs. HODGES, which is legalized in. Wade or homosexual marriage.

Conservatives may not like Trump's work style, nor must he not agree with his light attitude to deal with the new crown virus, but if Trump has the opportunity to appoint a conservative judge and let this institution be in the next 2nd and 30th in the futureWhen they became defenders of conservative value, they are likely to turn the possible indifference into the enthusiasm of voting.Similarly, of course, liberals hope to prevent this possibility, so they will definitely lock in some senators who are going to be re -elected, hoping that they will oppose the exercise of nomination procedures and consent for their own election.

However, among the Republican senators who are currently tight in election, Collins, only in Maine, does not support it. Colorado, who is running for the Election of Jadner, is gradually going to the Democratic Party. If he supports Trump, it isIt is impossible to get votes for cross -party factions, but if he opposes the operational procedures, it may lose the support of the Republican basic disk.The other two other Republican senators, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, and Martha Mcsally in Arizona, chose to support Trump's nomination rights. This decision maybe maybeIt can help the two people to shorten the gap with the opponent, but it is difficult to reverse whether it can reverse the election.

If the exercise of nominations and consent can not be avoided, the Democratic Party's radicals are preparing to promote the abolition of the abolition of the long -term speech to the minority party after becoming the majority of the Senate, and even increase the Court Packing of the Judge.The President of the Democratic Party allows Liberals to serve as the newly added judges (the constitution does not specify the number of judges), so as to win the majority of the high court.It seems that a party's fighting will be unavoidable. Whether the US democratic system can run smoothly will be a question.

Because Judge Kingsberg enjoys a very lofty status in the United States, and the aforementioned ideas with her exactly the same ideas, they have private friends who have a private relationship during their lifetime, and they are cherished friends. The two participated in many social activities together.There are also exchanges.If Stakaria’s successor is appointed by the new president, I believe he will be willing to see the seats that Kingsberg is empty, and you should decide after the presidential election. According to the granddaughter of KingsbergIt was her last message.If the Republican senators have greatly respected Scaria in the past, shouldn't she respect the last wishes of Kingsberg and allow her to gain the same respect as Stakaria?

The author is a concurrent professor at the Department of Political Department of the University of Political Science