＂Mr. RMB＂ in China Zhou Xiaochuan made the economy playing the world

▲ Zhou Xiaochuan is the longest -term president of the Bank of China. It has been 16 years long and has gone through three Premier of the State Council.The picture shows Zhou Xiaochuan's new Singapore Summit in September 2019.(File photo)

Take a closer look at the master

Hu Yuanwen

Monetary policy and musicals, what are the coexistence?Both must be carefully prepared, and the monetary policy is excessive or inaccurate, which will be inconsistent with economic development and even bring noise.Dr. Zhou Xiaochuan, the former president of the People's Bank of China, is an artist who commands the reform of monetary policy and financial system reform.He was deeply interested in musicals and wrote a work that popularized musicals.Affected by the 2019 crown disease, the Chinese economy fell 6.8 % in the first quarter of this year, the first time in 28 years.At present, China's economy is restarted, and it is expected to lead the global economic recovery, but the relationship between China and the United States is becoming more tense. The US presidential election takes one of the main axis of China., Help the Chinese economy through difficulty?Take a closer look at the masters' special series of the figures and academic fighting of the world's influence on the world's economy and trade. From their life experience, analyze the trend of financial and economic development that affects all beings.

Zhou Xiaochuan, 72, is the longest term of the China Central Bank of China. He has been 16 years long and has gone through three Premier of the State Council.

In 16 years, he had a new look from black hair to white hair.When he took office in 2002, China had just joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), with an economic scale than the British Elementary School. When he stepped down in 2018, China was the world's second largest economy.

Zhou Xiaochuan's influence on the Chinese financial system and the RMB dates back to the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The speculative funds flow from Asia. The currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea have depreciated sharply.

He and the then President of the People's Bank of China Dai Xianglong proposed that the yuan should be linked to the US dollar to enhance confidence.

Bert Hofman, Director of the Institute of East Asia, Singapore, accepted an interview with Lianhe Morning Post. When talking about Zhou Xiaochuan's contribution to the Chinese financial system, Zhou Xiaochuan was the vice president of the People's Bank of China and the director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. ChinaHe plays a key role in making a decision to not depreciate the renminbi, which is essential to settle the financial market.

Xie Dongming, director of the Research Director of the Greater China Bank of Overseas Chinese, told the United Morning Post: It was a very decisive decision -making power to take over the pressure of not being depreciated by the renminbi, which improved China's reputation and helped China join the WTO.

RMB exchange rate reform

As Mr. RMB, one of Zhou Xiaochuan's most prominent contribution is the reform of the RMB exchange rate.

After the Asian financial crisis, the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate was fixed at 8.2.After China joined the WTO in 2001, the exchange rate policy was criticized and accused of underestimation.For China, the appreciation of currency may lead to decline in import prices, the actual interest rate rises, and the key agricultural industry may be impacted by cheap importing agricultural products.The Chinese Ministry of Finance is also worried that the appreciation of the renminbi will impact the regional government's ability to repay loans.

When Zhou Xiaochuan became the president of the People's Bank of China in 2002, the reform of the RMB exchange rate system was the first problem.

After a lot of discussions with the central bank, they sent people to Singapore to study floating exchange rate management systems, and the transformation reform blueprint and financial reform were approved. In 2005, the RMB exchange rate system was reforming.

Regarding the title of Mr. RMB, Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview with CCTV: If I talk about the RMB because I speak, I call me lsquo; Mr. Rans Rsquo; I think this title is inappropriate.But if it is due to the reform of the RMB exchange rate, it is not possible.

Ye Xiuliang, an associate professor of the Department of Economics of Nanyang University of Technology, analyzed that under the premise of maintaining capital control at that time, the People's Bank of China was separated from the fixed exchange system with a slow appreciation.Exporting companies cannot receive orders due to a significant appreciation of the renminbi, and they have closed down layers, causing serious economic recessions and large -scale layoffs.

In addition to the exchange rate restructuring, Hao Fuman pointed out that Zhou Xiaochuan played a key role in responding to the global financial crisis and promoted the special withdrawal right basket of RMB to join the International Monetary Fund (IMF), allowing the bank to have a stronger firepower against the crisis.

Other financial system reforms led by Zhou Xiaochuan include the listing of state -owned banks, marketization of interest rate exchange rates, and capital opening.

In 2019, the Central Bank gave Zhou Xiaochuan's Lifetime Achievement Award.

The article published by the Economist Magazine in 2018 is summarized by this sentence: if you want to evaluate his achievements and see China's economic development.

However, Zhou Xiaochuan also had no shortage of criticism during his tenure. For example, the shares of state -owned banks were restructured, and the shares of state -owned banks were sold to foreign investors.According to former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, although the Chinese authorities have injected capital and stripped non -performing assets through foreign reserves, foreign investors still have concerns.

In addition, during Zhou Xiaochuan's tenure, currency supply (M2) increased sharply. The proportion of M2 on GDP (GDP) of M2 exceeded 2, which was more than twice that of the United States. Many officials believed that M2 rose too fast.This allowed Zhou Xiaochuan to get the title of Mr. M2.

He has responded that the country's M2 with a high savings rate and a relatively large proportion of indirect financing.

As Zhou Xiaochuan said, the financial policy is often controversial, but the core of the decision -making is to make a wise choice. It must not be good and zero -cost; it cannot look at the mountain height.

When Zhou Xiaochuan stepped down as the president two years ago, it was just the United States launched a trade war. The US dollar's exchange rate against the RMB rose from the level of 6.2 to the level of nearly 7, and it is currently at a level of 7.

China is more cautious from top to bottom

The outbreak of the 2019 coronary virus disease is a shadow for the Chinese economy.Media commented that the response of the People's Bank of China seems to be less than that of other central banks.

After China announced that the first quarter of its economy shrinks by 6.8 %, the bank only gently lower interest rates, and reduced 20 basis points to 3.85 % on April 20.On the occasion of the Federal Reserve and other Asian Central Banks, China has mainly adopted the reserve reserve requirements and targeted companies to provide loans for weak companies.

Xie Dongming believes that China is still more cautious from top to bottom. It is not to adopt the West to do its best stimulus model, and it is even more steady and targeted.In addition, the central bank has taken innovative measures, such as the recently announced purchase of small and micro enterprise loans, the purpose is to send money directly to the enterprise.

In response to the outlook of China's system reform, Ye Xiuliang pointed out that many reforms in the past 10 years have unintentionally weakened China's capital control and many new capital evasion vulnerabilities have appeared, which allows a large amount of capital to escape from China through illegal channels or abuse of legal channels.At the time of the Sino -US trade war and the unstable issues of Taiwan, China is unsuitable to move towards the free movement of capital in the next 10 years, otherwise it may cause huge economic disasters.

Promote the financial connection of the new China

Zhou Xiaochuan promoted during his term of officeFinancial relations on the middle and bilateral sides.

In September 2019, Zhou Xiaochuan was invited by the Singapore Financial Authority to come to give a speech.When the HKMA director Ravi Menon introduced the audience, Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that during his tenure, the People's Bank of China and the HKMA established a deep relationship and deepened financial and regulatory cooperation.

In 2013, the People's Bank of China appointed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as the RMB clearing bank of Singapore, which promoted my country's development as a major out -of -the -shore center.In 2016, the HKMA announced that it included the RMB in the official foreign exchange reserves, which was three years earlier than that of Chinese bonds in the main global bond index.

Meng Wenneng and Zhou Xiaochuan communicated at many international and bilateral meetings.His opinions are very insightful.At the central bank governor meeting held at the Basel International Clearance Bank every two months, I often ask him some questions that are not convenient for answering, such as the risk of Chinese shadow banks or industrial capacity overcapacity.

Ogawa always answers my question frankly and clearly, and will also answer the questions of other governors, and never avoid those difficult problems.

Ye Xiuliang pointed out that from 2005 to 2006, Bank of China Reform invited foreign strategic investors such as Temasek Holdings, Singapore Government Investment Corporation and Star Show Bank to participate in the reform of the then Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Construction Bank.The three major state -owned banks are listed.

He said that in addition to obtaining generous profits and continuing to hold part of the equity in the banks they invested in their shares, the above -mentioned agencies have also helped China successfully transforms large state -owned enterprise banks that have no efficiency, hiding huge bad debts and easy incidents, and transformed into a huge strength today.bank.

Walking in front of the technology field

Many people are familiar with Zhou Xiaochuan's insights in financial and economic reform. In fact, he is also in the field of science and technology.

In 2014, when fintech and digital currency had not yet become buzzwords, Zhou Xiaochuan had set up digital currency research institutes within the People's Bank of China to explore how emerging technology such as blockchain and digital tokens improved and strengthened China's financial system.Essence

Today, China is the leading fintech market, and the People's Bank of China will even be the first central bank in the world to issue digital currencies.

According to recent reports of Chinese media, the research and development of digital RMB is being progressing steadily. At the current stage, internal closed pilot tests are conducted in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong'an, Chengdu, and future winter Olympics scenes.

Greens Pan in China

Many people compare the President of the People's Bank of China and the chairman of the US Federal Reserve.In 2010, CCTV asked Zhou Xiaochuan: Which of you and Ben Bernanke (then chairman of the Fed), which is even more difficult?

Zhou Xiaochuan bluntly said: Of course, I think my work is very difficult to do.

His reason is that most people have a deep understanding of their own difficulties. What are the difficulties of other people's work? In fact, you don't necessarily see it all.

Some media claimed that he was Alan GreenSpan in China, and the two were characterized by long term and after several leaders.It is even more difficult to be able to do this in China. His professional director and good performance allowed him to be appointed again when he was retired at the age of 65.

Hao Fuman said that the independence of the People's Bank of China is lower.Since the reform in 1994, it has obtained higher independence and dominance to remove policy lending from the central bank's balance sheet of the central bank, and set up policy banks such as China Development Bank and import and export banks.However, when many key monetary policy decisions involved in the Chinese economy, the People's Bank of China still has to be approved by the State Council.

In contrast, the US Constitution has given the Fed's right to operate independently.

Xie Dongming said: Compared with the two targets of the Fed's inflation and employment, the People's Bank of China has more goals, so the challenges are even greater when balanced the interests of all parties.

In addition, there are still differences in communication between the People's Bank of China and the Federal Reserve.Xie Dongming said that the Federal Reserve has focused on forward -looking guidance, but so far the communication between the People's Bank of China and the market is not smooth enough, which is why the recent fluctuations in the interest rate market fluctuations are relatively large.

Ogawa famous saying

For example, if you fight, the fixed exchange rate is like a shield in your hand. You have to hold it and you will be affected and impacted.Because when you shake, it is equivalent to giving a signal so that the attacker finds weaknesses and organic.The logic of floating exchange rate treats crisis is different.It is equivalent to a sponge cushion. If you want to hit it, you can, but you don't let you hit me. When you withdraw, I will clip you again, just like a guerrilla war.Therefore, the thinking methods of these two exchange rate systems and the ability to prevent external exchange rate impact are different.

mdash; MDASH; Speaking on the China Banking Forum in 2005

Westerners like to use Western medicine, immediate shadows, but excessive movements; Chinese people like to use traditional Chinese medicine to attach importance to different herbal medicines after the effect of harmony. Although the effect is slow, it is a stable and effective therapy.

mdash; mdash; describing China's exchange rate reform at the 2010 Autumn Annual Conference

If there are too many cyclical factors in the economy, this cycle fluctuations are greatly enlarged. It is too optimistic during the prosperity period, which will also cause contradictions to accumulate.The strenuous adjustment of instantaneous instantaneous we must focus on.

mdash; MDASH; 2017 The Central Financial Systems delegation of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on the open day of Minsky's moment of Minski