Cai Yongwei: Liu He made an emergency visit to the United States to put out the fire?

Chinese Breakfast - Beijing Yiye Cai Yongwei

Only four days after the end of the first round of trade talks between China and the US, the US officially announced that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington next week to continue consultations with the US.Although it is widely expected that the next round of negotiations should be held shortly after the two sides met last week, Liu He's visit to the United States so soon was unexpected by some.

This news was first voluntarily disclosed by White House Press Secretary Sanders in response to questions about Sino-US trade negotiations at a regular press conference on Monday (7th).Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang did not confirm it when he was questioned on Tuesday. He only said: We have noticed the statement made by the US White House spokesperson. We believe that this expresses the US’s desire to reach a consensus with China on economic and trade issues. This is a positive sign.signal of.

Some media described that Liu He, who only visited the United States in an emergency at the end of February this year to try to extinguish the flames of trade, is also rushing to the United States to put out the fire this time.Before the deadline for comments, consultations with the United States tried to cool down the trade dispute.After that deadline, the US may soon formally impose tariffs on up to US$150 billion (S$201.7 billion) of Chinese goods.

Another purpose of Liu He's trip to the United States may be to demonstrate China's willingness to reduce its trade surplus with the United States.After all, this round of trade friction initiated by the United States is largely based on the trade imbalance between China and the United States, but the latest official statistics show that China's huge trade surplus with the United States has not decreased but increased.

According to the latest data released by China's General Administration of Customs on Tuesday, China's trade surplus with the US exceeded 140 billion yuan (S$29.5 billion) in April this year, not only a 40 percent increase from March, but also the first expansion since last November.

Such a trade trend is certainly not what the United States likes to see.Therefore, one of the tasks of Liu He's visit to the United States may be to appease the United States on the issue of trade surplus, and there is no delay.

However, judging from the current official information released by China and the United States, the United States seems to be more anxious than China.

In response to the news that the United States first announced Liu He’s visit to the United States three days ago, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of China did not confirm on the official website until yesterday afternoon that China had received a letter from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin formally inviting Liu He to visit the United States.Issues continue to be discussed.It is worth noting that the spokesperson did not disclose the specific time of Liu He's visit to the United States, but only said: China has accepted the invitation and agreed to go to the United States for consultations at an appropriate time, and the working teams of the two sides are maintaining close communication.

Before the US went to China for negotiations last week, China also remained relatively calm, always responding to media inquiries with a welcome, and did not announce that the negotiations would be led by Liu He until the day before the meeting.In contrast, the United States made a high-profile announcement and disclosed through the media that Mnuchin and other senior officials who went to China as special envoys of the US President for negotiations will receive high-level receptions and even meet with Chinese leaders and vice presidents during their stay in China.Meet with Wang Qishan.

However, the U.S. delegation did not meet with Beijing in the end, nor did it routinely introduce the results of the negotiations to the media before leaving Beijing.

A brief report released by Chinese officials after the meeting stated that the two sides had candid, efficient and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues.However, an anonymous Chinese government official familiar with the negotiations told the South China Morning Post that the negotiations did not go as smoothly as officially described.He said that the official so-called candor actually means that the discussion is intense, efficient means that the discussion time is very short, and constructive means that the differences between the two sides are still large.

It is true that the two sides not only did not reach any agreement during the consultation last week, but even the time for the next meeting has not been set, which shows how difficult the negotiation is.If the U.S. insists on asking China to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. by 200 billion U.S. dollars by 2020, abandon its request for WTO negotiations against the U.S., and so on, during Liu He’s visit to the U.S., Liu He will face these issues that even the mainstream Western media, the Financial Times, regards as extreme and unreasonable.When China makes irrational demands, the test is obviously severe, and negotiations with the United States will also be full of challenges.

In any case, the United States initiated this round of disputes earlier, and now it is actively seeking consultations with China. President Trump has played well the calculations behind this, and China obviously knows it well.It is foreseeable that the stalemate Sino-US trade dispute will continue for some time. At present, the ball is obviously on the US side. How it will serve and how China will receive the ball will test the strategy and wisdom of both sides.