Original Air
Over the past few months, the predictions of the United States' predictions on Chinese policies around the Biden Times.Since Biden won the election, some observers have hoped that Yu Biden would change his former Trump's policy to China. It is expected that Sino -US relations will ease, and the cooperation between the two sides will be restored.However, to the extent existence of the continuity of the United States' strategy to China is a question worth pondering.
A common point of view is the lack of continuity of foreign policy in the United States.People will point out that the domestic election politics in the United States determines the fierce competition relationship and take turns on the stage between the two parties, leading to the different foreign policy of the new president, leaving its own political imprint and inheritance on the world stage.This view sounds close to the common sense of the public, so it is very influential.
However, the fact is not so simple.Throughout the history of US diplomacy, we will find that at some point, there is some continuity in the US foreign strategy, and it does not change fundamentally because of the party's replacement.This continuity is often caused by the structural factors at the two levels, that is, the consensus of the international pattern and the two -party elite.
For example, during the Cold War in the second half of the last century, although the United States had different foreign policy priorities and priority matters during the period of turning in two parties, the tone of the previous government's foreign strategy was not fundamental.In more than 40 years, once the United States' containment strategy for the Soviet Union is established, it will always penetrate and it will be a little disappointing.
The Republican Democratic parties did not have the fierce competition in the domestic election politics, and parted ways in the Cold War and curbing strategies, and changed their string more.It should be said that this is mainly due to the two structural factors. One was the international pattern of the two camps confrontation and the US -Soviet hegemony; the other was that the two -party elites in the United States formed a basic consensus on the US foreign strategy in this pattern.
After the Cold War, US foreign policy once aroused debate.But the focus of the debate is not the goal of the US foreign strategy, but how to achieve the specific method and strategy of the US leadership world.During the period of Clinton, Bush, and Obama, the United States has many differences in key content and methods for China, but the strategic goals are consistent, that is, changing China and incorporating it into the international system led by the United States.
During the Trump period, the Chinese policy in the United States has undergone significant changes. The goal emphasizes to curb China. The method of unilateralism and tough positions is more prominent, trying to start the decoupling process.Therefore, many people think that Trump's strategy to China is an accident and abnormal state.With the end of Trump's term, many observers look forward to that the new US government's policy on China will return to "normal state", Sino -US relations will return to the previous track, restore dialogue, ease tension, re -consolidate exchanges and cooperationEssenceIn other words, they look forward to the continuity of China's strategy formed by the Trump period.
This expectation has been strengthened because of the current performance of Bayeng.On the one hand, the internal affairs are the top priority and top priority of the Bayeng government. The prevention and control of the epidemic prevention and control of the economy is the two major events.On the other hand, in diplomacy, the Bayeng government has indeed carried out some policies in the Trump period, including re -strengthening the relationship with American allies, supporting multilateralism, and returning to Paris.International rules in other fields.
In terms of Chinese policy, the Bayeng government is currently evaluating the Sino -US relations and the Trump administration's policy on China.Many people are looking forward to it.
However, in any case, the Biden period's strategy of China has been restricted by the two major structural factors.First, the international pattern of the two strong and fierce competition between China and the United States has become increasingly stylish.This is a basic objective reality and will not disappear between night.Second, various signs of recent years have shown that the two -party elites in the United States have formed a considerable consensus on the issue of China's rise. The U.S. Congress and the government have no substantial differences in the fundamental goal of winning a comprehensive and fierce competition with China in the United States.
The combination of these two points, the improvement of Sino -US relations will be very limited, and fierce competition between the two parties will be a high probability event, and may even be accompanied by some unexpected conflicts.It can be said that once the two major structural factors are formed, that is, non -short -term factors; on the contrary, not only will it fundamentally restrict the diplomatic options of the Biden government, but it will also likely exist for a long time, affecting the US strategy of the United States for decades in the next decades.
Therefore, the continuity of the United States' strategy to China has its profound realistic foundation.Comprehensively curbing China's rise has become the basic position of the US government's strategy for China in the next few sessions. This possibility is difficult to exclude easily.The tone of the United States' policy on China during the Biden period brought to the observer who was full of expectations would be a little disappointment.
The author is an associate professor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University
Deputy Director of Sichuan University -International Research Center of Warsaw University
