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Thailand must be held in May this year, and the current date is tentatively set to May 7. A number of polls show that Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the young daughter of the former Prime Minister of Thailand, is the first candidate in the prime minister in the minds of voters, The Thai party founded by Daxin was regarded as the potential biggest winner in the next election. 36 -year -old Peitan is optimistic about one of the three prime ministers candidates for the Thai party, but some interviewees believe that Peitan is currently pregnant with having having having having to have currently conceivedIn pregnancy, the due date is also in May.The election situation adds variables.
Thailand elections are once every four years. At present, many new and old parties are actively preparing for war.In this election, there will be fierce competition, political situation or reshuffle.
The current Prime Minister Ba Yu said that after the ruling citizen's power party stated that he supported the party chairman and deputy prime minister Bavi as the candidate of the Prime Minister, he turned to join the promise to recommend the new party of the Prime Minister, "Thais united the founding party".
Thailand's largest opposition party is the Thai party that the former Prime Minister, who will nominate the highly popular Prime Minister Daisha, Peitan, is a candidate for the Prime Minister.It is generally believed that Bayu (68 years old) will compete with Bavavi (77 years old) and Peitan for nearly 50 years.
However, the view of Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the director of the School of Safety and International Research at Julalong Gong University in Thailand, is that Peitan is currently pregnant at five months. Although she was founded by her father DaxinThe party campaign is drawn, but the Prime Minister may not be elected in the end.
Titidan pointed out in the interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "The due date of Peitan is also in May, and the same month as the election day, it seems unlikely to run."
According to Titannan analysis, the Thai party or just borrowing Peitan is the relationship between Daxin's daughter and her high popularity to fight for votes.
The results of the polls conducted by the National School of Development and Management in Thailand in December last year showed that Peitan is the most prime minister supported by voters, with a support rate of 32 %, which is more than double the support rate (14 %).EssenceThis means that if the election is held immediately, Peitan, who is "fledgling", is likely to defeat Ba Yu.
Titannan believes that the other Prime Minister of the Thai party should be Srettha Thavisin, a Thai real estate tycoon.After excluding Peitan, the other two may be the mayor Cholnan Srikaew, and the preferred candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri in the last election.
Tounon has previously confirmed the news of Peitan's pregnancy to the Thai media, but it may be one of the three prime ministers candidates for the Thai party even.
Each party can nominate three candidates in the election.The Bangkok Post reported earlier that the Thai party will announce the list of three prime minister candidates in February or March.Whether Peitan will run for election, causing attention.
Titannan believes that Peitan may not be able to represent the Prime Minister's position as the Thai party, but she has contributed to the Thai party, "can't wipe the credit of her."
The rising star of the Daxin family is the popular candidate of the Prime Minister
Peitan is the director of the Thai Party tolerance and Innovation Consultant Committee. In March 2022, he was appointed as the leader of the "Thai family".In the past few months, she has frequently attended various political parties to help the Thai party candidate to take a ticket.According to reports, with the active efforts of Peitan, the number of party members has increased from 8 million to 14 million.
Peitan mainly studied sociology and anthropology at the School of Political Science at Julalong Gong University. After graduation, he went to the UK to study in the management of international hotels and obtained a graduate degree. After returning to China
Although there is insufficient political experience, Peitan is very good at running his father Daxin's "Ace" to win votes.
Young voters are now the target of every political party.Titanan analyzed: "Peitan is young and courageous, has a strong learning ability, and soon in the Thai party. She is also very popular with young people and attracts many young votes for the Thai party."
The Thai party is the third party established by Daxin. At present, the old and middle -aged politicians are the main political figures. Peitan is the new generation of "poster girls" in the party.Essence
The reason for voters to support her is mainly to hope that the country will be at the helm of the new generation of young leaders, and recognize the policy of the Thai party, and the previous achievements of the Daxin family.
On January 28 this year, when Peitan went to the Kaifu Mansion in the northeast of Thailand, he pointed out that in the past eight years, the people's living expenses and family debt have risen under the administration of the military government led by Bayu.
She claims that if the Thai party has won the election, she will be committed to eliminating poverty and continuing to start with agricultural and farmers -related policies. At the same time, it will promote the development of tourism and boost the Thai economy.
Peitan said: "The people have been suffering for eight years, and I think it is enough. Our party is ready and has the ability to help everyone."
The Thai party promised that if the victory was won, the minimum wage would increase the minimum wage by 70 % and increase the average annual economic growth rate to 5 %.
The Citizenship Party of the Dear Army promised to stabilize the Thai economy when it was formed by the joint government, but it could not fulfill its promises for many years.The crown disease and the global inflation crisis led to rising prices, exceeding the tolerance of many people.
Thai political analysts believe that economic governance and public debt will become a key policy issue for this year's election.At present, the Thai party plans to increase the lending and increase the minimum wage level of workers to promote economic growth and support the development of the enterprise.Essence
For the Thai party's victory, it must be aligned with his party
From the recent polls, the Thai party is indeed a strong momentum. About three -quarters of the Thai people believe that this opposition should be at the helm of Thailand.
Titidan predicts that, like the general election four years ago, the Thai party will win the most seats in the House of Congress.However, it is not easy for the Thai party to form a new government alone. In the end, it may still be necessary to form an alliance with other political parties to form a joint government.
Although the Thai party is in 2In the 2009 election, he won the most seats in the House of Congress, but under the obstruction of the alliance party composed of the Citizenship Party of the pro -military, he failed to obtain the qualifications of the government.
The Thai party hopes to win at least 250 seats in the 500 seats in the next House of Lena in the next election.However, the analysis pointed out that the two former comrades of Bayu and Bavavi played the battle on behalf of the two political parties, and they were likely to dilute into the Thai party's votes.
At present, the Thai people who have joined the Pakistani have united the founding party and supported the party citizen of the ruling party who supported Bavavi as the Prime Minister's candidate.
Political Observer pointed out that it is common for political parties to stand in Thailand.Bayu and Bavavi, who are also soldiers, are now on behalf of the election prime ministers on behalf of different political parties. It may be the campaign strategy adopted by the two, which is good for ensuring that they continue to govern.The alliance political parties composed of the Citizenship Party may eventually cooperate with the new political parties of Bayu to prevent the close relationship with the former Prime Minister's faith.
The Constitution of Thailand stipulates that the upper house has the right to use the House of Ladies to vote for the Prime Minister.At present, the 250 members of the House of Lords are appointed by the military, which gives the military a great influence on the candidates of the Prime Minister.
Although the support of the Bayu poll is backward, it is not completely unpredictable, because he still enjoys the support of the southern region and the Emperor's party -owned party system.The Bangkok Post quoted sources that there were about 180 senators who supported Bayu, and the chances of Pakistani re -elected prime minister were still high.
Titpipon, the dean of the School of Political Science of Wuwenfu University in Thailand, said: "It is foreseeable that the military will continue to be in power through Bayu or Pavi. The Senate stands on their side, which is the most critical factor."
In addition to Ba Yu and Bavi, the Thai Party also faces the challenge of the Pita Limchaaroenrat from the Second Opposition Party.After self -pushing the hemp, the support rate of the advanced party ushered in a wave of high.
Although the brothers and sisters are exiled overseas Daxin's family forces are still huge
The Thai party is the party founded by the former Prime Minister Daxin, and it is also the largest opposition party in Thailand.The Thai party and the Daxin family have a huge power in Thailand and have gone through two real prime ministers.
Daxin, 73, became the Prime Minister in 2001, was overthrown by the military in 2006, and overseas was exiled in 2008. In the same year, he was sentenced to two years in prison by the court to violate the corruption law in the same year.Former Prime Minister of the court.
Daxin's sister Yingla came to power after the July 2011 election, becoming the first female prime minister in Thai history.However, Yingla also followed her brother's post -dust. In May 2014, she was overthrown by the soldiers, and she was charged with her malfeasance and corruption.She sentenced to an exile before the court in August 2017.
Although Daxin and Yingla's brothers and sisters have been exiled and overseas for many years, the political influence of the Daxin family in Thailand is still huge, and the people have a deep foundation, especially in rural and urban working class.
Since 2001, the political parties related to Daxin have won a majority of seats in each election, but they are often overthrown by the military to overthrow a coup, or the court's ruling invalidate large -scale street protests.
Daxin and Yingla's administration, Thailand's economic prosperity and social stability, leaving a good impression among the people, especially the people at the bottom.In contrast, for more than eight years in power, Thailand's economy has been relatively weak. Especially since the outbreak of the crown disease, the economic recovery has almost no improvement, and the government's economic governance capacity has been questioned.
Coupled with the "coup seizing power" and "ignore the student movement", such as public opinion, Thai people generally hope to change the prime minister.This is the main reason why the Thai party is optimistic about becoming the biggest winner in the election.
The Thai media believes that by supporting her daughter to play a leading role in the Thai party, Daxin has sent a strong signal that he has no intention of leaving Thai politics.Daxin supports the Thai party's ambition to win this election, regain power, and end the military government rule that lasted eight years.This may promote the three major political forces of the royal family, the military and elites to "curb" the influence of the continuous expansion of the Thai party and the Daxin family.
Regardless of the final result of this election, the outside world is concerned about the strong return of the Thai party and the Daxin family, which may indicate that Thailand will usher in a new round of fierce political struggle.
Congress Modify Election Law
Good for the ruling party to protect the regime
The Thai Congress voted in July 2022 and approved the election reform. The adjusted election system was conducive to small political parties, so that the ruling parties supported by the military in the coming election preserved the regime.
According to the new election law, smaller political parties will be able to obtain one of the 500 seats of the House of Representatives with less votes.
A total of 750 seats in the two houses of the Thai Congress. The 250 members of the House of Commons were all assigned by the military.It is allocated at the ratio of the votes of each party.
Thailand has previously voted to modify the constitution, adding 350 partitions of the House of Losites to 400 seats. At the same time, it also resumed the system for each voter to vote for two votes.
The new election law not only stipulates the distribution of partition members, but also limits the number of seats that larger political parties can win, preventing any party from obtaining an absolute majority of seats in the house in the next house.This reform is undoubtedly a blow to the Thai party who won the most of the House of Representatives in the last election.
The party's citizenship party has held 250 upper house seats assigned by the military. After the constitutional amendment, the small political parties of the pro -military will have a greater opportunity to occupy a place in the House of Representatives.Organize a new government.
The military has always played an important role in Thai politics.After entering the 20th century, there have been 13 coup in Thailand. The most recent two occurred in 2006 and 2014. The military overthrew the elected Prime Minister Daxin and Yingla.
