Yu Zeyuan: It is difficult to improve Sino -US relations when visiting China

Early

Ji Yan Spring and Autumn

U.S. Secretary of State Brosky will visit China from February 5th to 6th. This is the first visit to China after he has served as the Secretary of State. It is also the highest -level U.S. officials in China for more than two years.

After the US war in China in 2018, the United States continued to pressure China in politics, security, science and technology, public opinion, and even the economic and trade fields. China has also receded against the United States from time to time.Become the main theme of Sino -US relations.

In this background, what effect can Brinken's visit to China has attracted worldwide attention.But from the recent performance of Sino -US relations, it is difficult to make people optimistic.

At the World Trade Organization Conference on January 27, representatives of China and the United States made fierce quarrel on the arbitration mechanism.Li Chenggang, a represented by the Chinese Scholarly World Trade Organization (WTO), accuses the United States of "executors of unilateralist bullying, damagers of the multilateral trading system, and the global industrial chain supply chain disrupted";Maria Pagan refers to China's "illegal unilateral retaliation measures" on US products, and said that the WTO "has become a shield for China's non -market policies and behaviors."

Reuters reported on January 27: "This is the latest upgrade remark between two trading opponents."

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter on January 28 that during the negotiations that ended on the 27th, the United States had reached an agreement with the Netherlands and Japan to export some advanced chip manufacturing equipment in China.Some of the export control measures have been extended to Asmore, Nikon and Tokyo Electronics, the Netherlands.

The Netherlands and Japan joined the United States to restrict Chinese chip production capacity alliances, which is obviously the new upgrade of the United States forces on Chinese technology.

On the very sensitive Taiwan issue in China, U.S. President Biden signed the 2023 version of the US Defense Authorization Act in late December 2022, plans to provide Taiwan with a $ 10 billion military assistance.On January 25, a comprehensive supply ship of the U.S. Navy crossed the Taiwan Strait, and once sailed only 4 nautical miles away from Taiwan Island, breaking through the limit of 12 nautical miles.China naturally regards the US moves as "one -Chinese policy" and interfere with China's internal affairs.

In a memorandum recently disclosed, Mike Minihan, commander of the U.S. Air Force Mobility Command, said that China will take military operations against Taiwan for 2025.Minnhan asked the troops to step up training and combat reserve from now on, and make preparations for combat in the "first island chain". "

The U.S. Air Force confirmed the authenticity of this memorandum. Although the US Department of Defense spokesman said that Minnham did not represent the Ministry of Defense's view of China, it also pointed out that "China is a shadow for the Ministry of Defense (the United States) and the Ministry of Defense."Challenge".

Earlier, many heavyweights in the American intelligence community and the military have predicted that China will recover Taiwan with force in 2027. Both parties in the United States have continuously made a voices to support Taiwan.The speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August, triggering the PLA launching missiles through Taiwan and conducting military exercises over Taiwan.McKinsey, the newly speaker, plans to visit Taiwan in April this year, and mainland China will inevitably respond fiercely.

In addition, the newly established "Chinese Special Committee" of the House of Representatives in the United States has recently announced that it will hold a hearing in Taiwan to discuss military sales and other issues.If you do it, it will cause a lot of storms in Sino -US relations.

In these endless troubles, Brinken's visit to China to achieve major results is probably difficult to add.

The US media disclosed that Brinken will discuss the "four issues" with China this time, namely the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the Chinese nuclear arsenal, the promotion of bilateral dialogue, and the release of the detained U.S. citizen.

On the issue of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the United States anti -Russia was struggling to prevent China from assisting Russia.China emphasizes neutrality, while maintaining normal economic and trade relations with Russia, will not give up this strategic partner, nor will it participate in Western sanctions on Russia.However, China and the United States may reach certain consensus on the increasing issue of war and especially the use of nuclear weapons.

Regarding the Chinese nuclear arsenal, the United States hopes to incorporate China into the reduction of strategic weapons. China has always emphasized that the number of nuclear warheads is far less than the United States and Russia, and they do not easily agree to join the negotiations to reduce the reduction of nuclear arsenal.

Promoting bilateral dialogue should be the common demands of both China and the United States. Brincken may ask China to cancel Peross's eight countermeasures to the United States after visiting Taiwan.The problem is that China strongly opposes the United States to constantly play the "Taiwan card". Even if China agrees to restore the dialogue between China and the United States in the fields of safety, climate and anti -drugs, once McKinsey's visit to Taiwan or the U.S. Congress holds hearing in Taiwan, theseThe dialogue is likely to be suspended again.

As for the release of the detained U.S. citizen, China will reiterate that it is a country ruled by law and does not interfere with the results of judicial trial.

The trip to Brinken China is full of thorns, which is difficult to improve Sino -US relations, but the interaction between Sino -US high -level interaction is still a positive signal.In fact, as the top two economies in the world, the interests of both China and the United States have long been bundled.Even though some politicians in the United States make a call to decompose with China from time to time, the United States cannot leave the Chinese market and products in the short term, and both parties must cooperate on some major international issues.

In the context of the comprehensive game of China and the United States, Brinken can visit China, at least indicating that Sino -US senior management hopes to control bilateral relations and prevent Sino -US relations from falling into the abyss of out of control.Therefore, even if Brinton's visit to China cannot achieve specific results, the visit itself is still practical.