Malaysia Special

The 15th election of Malaysia, hoping that the alliance and the people's fair party chairman Anhua moved from the Morilan Prefecture to the Perak, to the election of the Parliament of the Parliament of the Justice Party, hopes to exert personal influence, bring a chain effect to the surrounding constituencies, and assist the Pakatan Harapan to win the Perak regime, or even the federal regime. However, Anwar has a certain risk of turning to Perak.It is generally believed that this election is to verify whether he still has political influence.In other words, Anwar is a backwater battle, and it becomes benevolent without success.

Anhua announced at the Tambun Parliament seat at the Tambun Parliament on October 20 on October 20 at Ipoh. It was not a safe zone for fighting.But he still risked here to come here, hoping to prove that he is not a leader who specializes in "winning the constituency".

In 2020, the "Sheraton Incident" caused the Pakatan Harapan and Anwar's reputation. In Sarawak, Malacca, and Johor, the Pakatan Harapan, especially the Justice Party, did not make good results.The Pakatan Harapan and the Justice Party are currently at a critical point. The number of existence value and living space in politics depends on the performance of the election.

For Anhua, the most important thing is to revive the morale of the downturn of the fair party and maintain his influence within the party.If he still chose to go to the security zone at this moment, it would not help to achieve this goal; if you actively attacked the non -safe zone, there would be the effect of the first soldiers, and then encouraged the morale of the party.

Anwar also led the banner with the banner of "cleaning the traitor". This not only made himself "airborne" the thunderbolt become famous, but also lifted the morale of the party and condensed supporters.

The former members of the Parliament as the former Minister of State Minister of Perak and Active Chairman of the Indigenous Unity Party Act, Ahmadfari; after the Sheraton Incident, the Pakatan Harapan has regarded the Turkish Party as a traitor, so this time Anwar was campaign to the campaign to run a campaign., Also in line with his earlier remarks to "clean up the portal", showing himself a word to the Pakatan Harapan members and the Justice Party members.

Although there is risks in the battle, Anwar also sees it.Anhua chose to move the Perak, mainly because of the People's Alliance of the Wild camp (the predecessor of the Pakatan Federation, the Pakatan Harapan) and the Pakatan Harapan in the 2008 and 2018 elections.Crane) The constitution is equivalent, and there is a fight.

Second, the former member of the Pagoda Ahmada did not perform well according to law. Whether he was the Minister of State, or the Minister of Sports, he did not have a bright achievement.He was still the minister who was not trusted by the Perak State Council. Obviously, UMNO did not like him. Therefore, Anwar challenged Ahmadfa Yisha, and he had an advantage in his momentum and strategy.

Liu Weicheng, a scholar at the Department of Journalism and Political Science of Lairen University in Malaysia, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the battle of Anwar was more a kind of election strategy in the inside, mainly to want to motivate morale and justice.The impartial party's priority is to boost the morale that has fallen into the valley, and Anhua has changed the practice of choosing to play in the safe zone.The Prime Minister's candidate, with a certain resources and political status, can increase the probability of his victory.He said that the Pakatan Harapan's election experience in Perak is much better than in other states, so he hopes to boost the morale of Perak Pakatana by putting a heavyweight leader.

"The Pakatan Harapan listed Perak as the front line of this election. Anwar also played a high risk of fighting in person, not random. Perak was the first time in the field of political tsunami in the wild camp in 2008.First, one year later, the state regime was lost due to the rebellion of the three state members. In the 2018 election, the Pakatan Harapan won the Perak regime again, so the Perak had a chance for the Justice Party. "

The election of Perak has always changed a lot. In the past three elections, the seats in the opposition and field are very close. There are still some time before the voting date of the 15th election on November 19th.What is the chance of victory and whether it can be done with the Barisan Nasional, it is too early.

However, it is obvious that Anhua has a disadvantage in the Parliament's constituency, that is, beating is the selection of Malay voters.It is a big challenge to obtain most Malay voters.

The racial structure of voters in the parliamentary constituency is the majority of Malays, about 66%, about 21%of the Chinese, 12%of Indians and about 1%of other races.

Xu Guowei Xu Guowei, a badge of Ma Guo, bluntly stated that Anwar's disadvantage was that he was never the site of the Justice Party."The past was a strong area of UMNO. The 2018 election was first won by the Pakatan Harapan Turkish Party. At that time, it was the triangle.It was the Iranian party dispersed votes that UMNO had a defeat. Now the Turkish Troupe and the Iraqi Party cooperate under the banner of the National Alliance (National Alliance). Umno is still strong.Big. "

The shortcomings of the Pakatan Harapan, especially the Justice Party, have always been unable to win the support of rural areas and conservative Malay voters.Even so, such support is not firm.However, the Pakatan Harapan believes that they are evenly matched in Perak and the national array, so they hope to use Anwar's reputation to drive the election.

Shi Shi Ceremony Lan Zhifeng believes that Anwar can indeed drive the place where Perak is selected, but as far as the current situation is concerned, the effect of helping the Pakatan Harapan re -enter the city may not be great, especially Anwar to faceThe rural Malay votes that have been difficult to break through in the past.

He said that this is a very big test. Two key points are worth noting. One is whether it can set off the "Anwone whirlwind"."Together with the former Prime Minister Mahathir and the Pakatan Harapan in the last election, the" Mahathir Whirlwind ". Malay society, especially the conservative Malay voters in the countryside, are very assured of Mahathir.The rights and interests of the Muslim and the Malay royal family, but these voters have reserved Anwar. In addition, the UMNO and the Iraqi Party have been continuously propagated and described Anwar as a Malay leader who compromised to the Democratic Party.The leaders of human religion, Chinese and culture. "

"Furthermore, there is currently lack of 'perfect storm'. A Malaysian company scandal of Prime Minister Najib in the last election, as well as Mahathir's blessing.The seat in charge of the seat. But the perfect storm this time has not yet taken shape, the overall voting enthusiasm has not yet burned, and Anwar alone cannot blow up the whirlwind. However, it is still more than half a month before the vote date.Time to fight for and expand the influence, try to create 'Anwone Whirlwind'. "

Create the "Pakatan Harapan Corridor" to call the voters enthusiasm for the 2018 election

The Pakatan Harapan listed the Perak as the front line of the 15th election, together with Samilland, Selangor and Penang to create the "Pakatan Harapan Corridor".This concept caters to the beautiful desire of the supporters of the Fortune to a certain extent, helps to call back supporters and voters to 2018The enthusiasm of the New Year's Elections made them understand that as long as they support the Pakatan Harapan, they still have the opportunity to achieve the results of the last election.

The current affairs commentator Xu Guowei pointed out that the Pakatan Harapan's launch of the Pakatan Harapan Corridor was a "Danjung Battle" launched by Lin Jixiang, a veteran party of the People's Bank of China in Penang that year, that is, the strategic deterring opponents, and then becoming media propagandaFocus, so as to raise morale and expand the results of the war.

After the DPP encountered a severe frustration in the 1982 election, Lin Jixiang re -deployed his strategy to move his focus to Penang.The Democratic Party of Penang.At that time, Lin Jixiang's first soldiers successfully set off a whirlwind in Penang, not only defeating Xu Zigen, who defeated the Democratic Party in the Danjung Parliament constituency, but also won Gannaman Ge Nanzhou constituency.Although he failed to win Penang at that time, the Democratic Bank of the People's Republic of China won 10 state seats in an unprecedented history and made a major breakthrough in Penang, laid the foundation for the later Pakatan Harapan to rule Penang.

This time, the Justice Party and Anwar are obviously imitated the DPP and Lin Jixiang.As early as the 2013 election, the Perak's Justice and the DPP invited Anwar to Perak, but at that time, Anhua chose to return to the Penang Penang Penang Pozhou Parlia Congress election district to run for election.In the next election, Anwar to Perak, Ni Kemin, chairman of the Perak State of the People's Republic of China, believes that Perak will become a key state genus to consolidate the Pakatan Harapan on the west coast of the Malaysian Peninsula; winning the Perak, the Pakatan Harapan will have greater opportunities to go south to Johor, as well as Xiang East to the eastExtend to Pahang.

However, Liu Weicheng, a scholar at the Department of Journalism and Political Science of Raman University, believes that the grand ambition of the Pakatan Harapan Corridor is mainly for the Pakatan Harapan to listen to themselves;Because it lacks more specific policy content.

He said: "What benefits can voters get in this corridor? What kind of substantial benefits? Perak should reach the status of industrial states with Selangor, Penang, etc.This, but currently the Pakatan Harapan corridor mentioned in the Pakatan Harapan is not yet attractive, so I think it is necessary to let this corridor add points to further provide a complete development direction, so that voters will resonate. "

When it comes to the state power, the worries of Perak is that the state parliament has not passed the reflection job.Unless the Pakatan Harapan has won the strong and stable state government in the governance composition, even if this time, even if you win, I am afraid that the situation where there have been several times in the past few times and "change the sky".One of the reasons.

Liu Weicheng agrees that this is really difficult to make voters confident. This is why the Pakatan Harapan wants Anwar to run for the Perak."The Pakatan Harapan hopes that Anwar can supervise the election campaign of Perak in person, and many of the State Councilor who used to change jobs in the past is a fair party member.. If the Pakatan Harapan won the Perak regime, I believe they will convene the state parliament and pass the reflection job. "

Xu Guowei pointed out that although Perak has not passed the reflection job, for most voters, this may not be the main cause of whether they want to vote; whether the political coldness and whether the tour to return to the countryside is also affecting the election of Perak's election situation.Elements.

He said that in recent years, the political chaos of the horse country has made many voters bored. If there is no subject and atmosphere that can resonate, voters may not have high voting."There is also Umno's return to the DPRK, and after re -controlling Perak, he has been operating the basic disk to prepare for the state power. Relatively speaking, the Pakatan Harapan Democratic Party is still stable in the Chinese area, but other members include fairness, including fairnessThe party is under great pressure in the hybrid constituency. Therefore, the election of Perak is likely to be in a state of stalemate, and the Pakatan Harapan may not be able to win in one fell swoop. "

may not be able to attract conservative Malay voters

Anwan's fighter to the Thunderbolt caused another reason for the attention of the whole Malaysia to the President A UMNO President Ahmad Zahi's parliamentary constituency Datuk.However, at present, the election campaign has not yet officially launched, and the arrival of Anwar will have too early any effect on Ahmad Zahi, and even Umno's election.

Some public opinion believes that Anwar may not be able to attract the votes of conservative Malay voters, but it may attract some Pakatan Harapan, especially the non -Malay votes of the People's Bank of China.EssenceThis is very important for the Democratic Party, especially when MCA chooses in Johor, voters have significant signs of return.

In this regard, Liu Weicheng said that Anwar can indeed attract the non -Malaysian supporters of the Pakatan Harapan, and the CIBC's election in Perak is still stable.The chance of victory is still very high.

But he said that if the voting rate is low, MCA will have the opportunity to win in the mixed constituency."This is the case in March this year.It is necessary to find a way to raise the voting rate of the whole Malaysia. In this way, their victory in the mixed constituency can increase significantly. "

The battle of fighting will be

Anhua realizes the Dream dividing point of the Prime Minister

If the Pakatan Harapan won this election, Anhua is naturally the Prime Minister.If the Pakatan Harapan loses, but Anwar won the seat of the National Assembly, he will also be the leader of the Pakatan Harapan.But if Anwar is defeated, even if he will not end his political career, he may end his life -to be the Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Liu Weicheng, a scholar at the Department of Journalism and Political Science of Raman University, pointed out that if Anwar lost, it means that he is not a parliamentarian, and he must face the political empty window period of up to five years.

"Anhua is 75 years old, and another election is 80 years old. At that time, whether he has the intention to go to run for election is the same. The support of voters will have the support of him and the Pakatan Harapan, and the political situation of the Pakatan Harapan will changeWhat is it, it's another thing. "

Liu Weicheng said: "So this battle of this time is the boundary point that his Prime Minister's dream can be achieved. In case of defeat, he will start to arrange successors."

The current affairs commentator Xu Guowei also said that the Pakatan Harapan has the opportunity to win the election than the previous session; if the Pakatan Harapan cannot return to Putram, this election is likely to be the last battle of Anhua."Because the pace of generations in the Justice Party will be tighter, the team of Acting Chairman Rafiz will become the main force of the 16th general election of the battle. Therefore, whether Anhua can win the fight, as long as the Pakatan Harapan cannot win this election,Anwar is facing the risk of 'persuasion'. In fact, I believe that from the Justice Party to the Pakatan Harapan, they are all doing the arrangements of the Anwar era. "

"If the Pakatan Harapan returns to Putheng, Anwar is the Prime Minister, and it is natural to be happy for the Pakatan Harapan. But if the Pakatan Harapan cannot win the election, Anwar will gradually surrender the leadership stick.When the state election is elected, it is also likely to be led by other more suitable leaders. "

Time Critics Lan Zhifeng bluntly stated that if the Pakatan Harapan was defeated, Anwar may have to accept the fact that he had no "Prime Minister's life"."Anhua started as Deputy Prime Minister and the UMNO Acting Chairman in 1993, and has been fighting for decades for the Prime Minister. He is 75 years old. If he is still unsuccessful this time, it should be retired.The contribution of politics and contributing to the Justice Party should also retire behind the scenes. It is not suitable to be the 'commander', leading the Pakatan Harapan and the Justice Party. "