(Beijing Bloomberg) The model constructed by the United States media shows that due to the long -term impact of the "dynamic clearance" policies, the decline in fertility rates, etc., China may be difficult to surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy within 10 years.
According to Bloomberg, Bloomberg's economic research outlines the four situations of China's economy in the next 10 years, and the baseline predicts an average of 4.6 % in the next 10 years.The model shows that due to the long -term impact of the dynamic zero -epidemic prevention policy, the decrease in fertility rates exceeded expectations, and the gradually shrinking of the real estate industry, the investment in investment has declined, and the economic growth rate of more than 5 % during this period has become out of reach.
If the low degree of downturn in the real estate market exceeds expectations, the "dynamic clearing zero" policy lasts until 2023, the average growth rate of GDP in the next 10 years may be less than 4 %, which means that China may not be able to surpass the United States until the mid -2030s in the mid -2030s.And with the population factors to be dragged after 10 years, the leading advantage may be reversed.
If China can get rid of these dual constraints and continue to invest in manufacturing, and the labor force team that has been educated can increase productivity, more than 5 % of the growth rate will once again become a realistic goal, thereby rising to the world faster to the worldFirst.Judging from the long -term performance of China's economy, it is risky to bet on China to achieve this goal.
According to Bloomberg's economic research and analysis, there are four situations in China's economic growth in the next 10 years: the growth rate in the basic situation will be between 4 % and 5 %;It is less than 3 %, and the economic growth rate of optimistic situations is higher than 5 %.
