The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation was held on Friday (December 29). The pre -election polls were held. The current blue -green and white candidates are three -legged. Experts evaluate the election and unpredictable election. Voters are expected to vote independently of the "abandoning insurance" strategy.In the end, blue and green may win.

Taiwan will hold the president and legislator election on January 13th two weeks later. The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, which has been tracked for a long time, released the last monthly major topic of the month before the election.Professor You Yinglong's design issues and interpretations of Chairman You Yinglong invited Professor Zhao Chunshan, an authoritative scholar of cross -strait scholars on both ends of the blue and green spectrum, and the master of Taiwan independence theory and former legislators Lin Zhuoshui.

The polls found that the DPP "Lai Xiao Bao" (Lai Qingde and Deputy Mi Miqin) supported 32.4%, and 28.2%of the Kuomintang "Hou Kangbing" (Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang) and the people's party "Ke Ying Pixing Patching"(Ke Wenzhe and Wu Xinying) of 24.6%; nearly 60%(59.4%) voters look forward to the rotation of political parties. In terms of political support, the Kuomintang led by 28.5%, surpassing the DPP's 28.3%and 18.2%of the People's Party's 18.2%Essence

You Yinglong said that the trend of the three -legged triple -footed presidential campaign is still unknown whether Lai Xiaojing can go out of the governance spell for eight years.This election can be in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections (both of the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shui -bian), and tied the three most elusive and confusing presidential elections in history.

You Yinglong pointed out that Ke Wenzhe's support fell 7.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, showing that the abandonment effect has occurred quietly, but it is not a "section -type abandonment insurance".Save".Whether the abandonment of the sector's large movement in the last two weeks is worth observing.

It is worth noting that nearly half (48.5%) voters are optimistic about Lai Xiao's election, which is far from 21.2%of Hou Kang and 15.7%of Ke Ying.

Zhao Chunshan, chief consultant of the Asia -Pacific Peace Research Foundation, commented that if it was set by Beijing as a "double independence combination" and "independence and independence", Beijing will definitely offer a stronger military and in Taiwan.Economic and trade pressure.He believes that the eyes of Taiwanese voters are clear and will make wisdom choices for life and future, but no matter any decision, they should respect and face the results together.

The Democratic Progressive Party founded the veteran Lin Zhuoshui pointed out that there will be a treacherous abandonment in this election.He said that young people who support the third forces are "natural independence" (also known as "natural platform") with strong autonomy, which is completely different from the trajectory of the past voting behavior.They may not vote, or in order to promote the reform of the constitutional system, Hou Youyi, who is more expected to win, has a chance to win the election.

In the last presidential election of 2020, You Yinglong had predicted that Tsai Ing -wen's voting rate would "fall at 57%, and three percentage points for positive and negative". As a result, Tsai Ing -wen's voting rate was 57.13%.In response to this election, he predicts that Lai Xiao has 38%of the votes, Hou Kang with 37%, and 27%of Ke Ying, in the range of three percentage points of positive and negative.

You Yinglong said that this prediction is based on empirical scientific data, comprehensively considering various poll numbers, and welcome to verify after the selection.

In addition, You Yinglong mentioned in the polls that the polls before the selection of 2020 and 2016 showed that 72.6%and 63%said that they would vote, and the actual voting rates were 74.9%and 66.27%, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively.The results of the polls are about three percentage points up.

This polls show that 63.7%of the public said that they will vote. You Yinglong inferred that this year's election is cold.If there is no major change in the election, the voting rate may fall at about 68%, and it is likely not to exceed 70%.