The Taiwan Election Monday (January 8th) countdown for five days. The blue -green duel and Bai adhered to one side of the triangle war situation appeared. The three parties consolidated the basic market and then extended the votes.Voters have become a place to fight for soldiers and the creation.
Taiwan will hold the president and legislator election on Saturday (January 13) in the coming (January 13). With about 90 % of supporters of blue -green and white, they have already returned to the team.The most critical variable in war.
Comprehensive Taiwan Central Election Commission (Election Association) and data from the Ministry of the Interior's Household Department of the Ministry of the Interior as of the end of November last year, there were about 19.58 million qualified voters over 20 years of age.There are 6,111%of young voters from 20 to 39, accounting for 31%, of which 10.28 million are the first investment tribes from 20 to 24, accounting for 5.3%.
Intermediate voters refer to qualified voters who do not have a specific party tendency, mainly young people, including unprecedented light blue or light green voters.
Dai Li'an, an expert on polls, evaluated the United Zaobao. During the non -election period, the middle voters who did not express their statements generally were generally 30 % to 30 %; as the election conditions were heating up, more people's statement was selected.Fifty to 30 %.
Associate Professor Du Shengcong, director of the Department of Radio and Television of Mingchuan University, who has studied big data for a long time, said that at the average value of 30 %, there were about 5.87 million middle voters.Because young voters and middle voters have intersect each other, in comprehensive, the total number of young and middle voters fighting for each party is not less than 30 % or 6 million.
Recently, the focus of blue -green and white election is to give priority to consolidating the basic disk, and then expand votes to young and middle voters.The blue -and -green showdown situation of the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party was determined, but the people's party of the Baiying refused to be marginalized, and the potential was to show the strength of the key minority political sector.
In order to win the mainstream public opinion and break through the same temperature, the blue camp focuses on the field of votes in the wild, realizes the rotation of political parties, summons war with peace, prosperity and recession, democracy and dictatorship, corruption and cleanliness."The right person and the right way" called for voters to go to the world and refuse to lock back to China (mainland); Bai Ying expects that young voters' voting rates have soared to 85%of unprecedented unprecedented voting, creating a miracle that pushed the blue -green walls.
Anti -Chinese Cross -Strait Topic Anti -Removal Young People Attach importance to personal issues
The last presidential election coincided with the anti -repair case of Hong Kong in 2019. The DPP government held up the banner of "Anti -China Baozai", attracting a large number of young people's support, and the highest votes in the 8.17 million history of Cai Yingwen who won the election.EssenceHowever, this election has anti -China cards and cross -strait issues. The four interviewed young people who consider "middle voters" are more concerned about the safety of life safety, fairness and justice, low salary and high house prices.
Xiaojun (pseudonym) from 21 -year -old college students from New Taipei deeply feels unsafe in Taiwan's internal environment.He hopes that the president will effectively solve the problem of people's livelihood in the future, including solving the high drunk driving and "pedestrian hell" problem, and improve traffic safety; cracking down on fraud cases from the source and improving economic security.
He also looks forward to that the new government has worked harder to integrate the regional and the international economy, driving the low -paying dilemma for many years, and open a living road for small citizens and traditional industries.
Voting for personality to discredit the disgust of the election campaign
As the first investment family, Xiao Jun admitted that he had doubts about blue -green and white and had not decided who to choose.He said that many students saw the negative election campaign of frequent personality of various political parties, including the real estate controversy of the candidate who joked "Lai Pi Ling", "Hou Run Gong" and "Fried Field P"., Even lamented that "it is better to go directly to work or rest at home."
Xiaoyi (pseudonym), a 23 -year -old student from Taichung, pays attention to fairness and justice, including whether the government uses policies and resources properly to improve the problem of living justice, low salary, employment environment, lack of electricity, and fraud.He believes that the government must bring out the core "policy beef", rather than weaving various reasons to justify the issue of people's livelihood.
Xiaoyi has not decided who to choose who is president.He was the holder of the party's party, but did not agree with the party's presidential candidate Ke Wenzhe's speech.
He expressed his appreciation of the DPP to master the mainstream public opinion with the "Taiwan of the Republic of China", but because the party's presidential candidate Lai Qingde led too long, he "lacked his motivation to vote for him".He expects that the rotation of political parties has brought about substantial changes, but bluntly stated that the Kuomintang's cross -strait discussion has not yet convinced him.
Liu Zhiyi, a 33 -year -old social worker who lives in Hsinchu and has two women, said that because of the booming of the scientific park, Hsinchu has gathered high -paying engineers, and house prices and living expenses have soared.At the same time, about S $ 2.4) rose 70 % to 95 yuan.
He bought a house in the suburbs for 9.85 million yuan before the epidemic, and now it has risen 60 % to 16 million yuan. I lamented that young people buying houses for houses for houses are very difficult.Building dealer Golden Lord.
Liu Zhizhen believes that he is blue in the middle of his political position, identify with the people's party philosophy, and also hopes that the Kuomintang will realize the rotation of political parties. He intends to see who is the best at the last moment, and then decide how to vote.
27 -year -old Hsinchu semiconductor engineer Xiao Yao (pseudonym) said that although he can afford a house, he is unwilling to afford the high housing loan to affect the quality of life.He believes that the government has not actually improved the entire environment regardless of the policy of housing, fraud, or parenting.He was disappointed by the DPP's governance. If he found that the Kuomintang or the people's party was strong enough before voting, and had the opportunity to realize the party's rotation, he would vote for support;People with similar ideas.
Voting rate and abandonment are the key to changing the sky
In response to how young and middle votes affect the election, the three interviewed experts pointed out that the voting rate of the voting rate and the autonomous abandonment of voters will be determined whether Taiwan will change.
Professor You Yinglong, a political scholar and chairman of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, believes that this current election is cold. From many data, the voting rate may be only 70 % or less.The voting rate of the first investment tribe 20 to 24 is the lowest of all ages, which may be only 60 % or even lower.
He pointed out that this election has appeared in generation of duel. After half a year, light people support Ke Wenzhe, adults and elderly people to support blue and green respectively. In the end, the winners must win the support of all ages.
You Yinglong reminds that the DPP "Lai Xiao Bao" (Lai Qingde and deputy Xiao MeiQin) The optimism is much higher than that of the opponent of the opposition party. Many young people find that the candidates who support support are very low. Considering the cost of returning to voting, they will also reduce their willingness to vote.
He said that the Kuomintang's Ruyi abacus is to have white edges through blue -green duel, but can they successfully convince enough white camp supporters "abandon Bai Baolan" or "abandoned Ke Baohou", as well as verification after being elected.
Dai Li'an, an expert on polls, said that young and middle voters are relatively autonomous and the voting rate has not been high. Therefore, each camp still gives priority to consolidating the basic disk, and then strives for middle voters.Although the leaders of the people repeatedly rejected the operation of "abandoning Ke Baohou" and emphasized that "white will not vote for blue", Dai Li'an pointed out that from the perspective of cross -analysis, there is a common part of the blue and white votes.Vice green.
Du Shengcong also agreed that the young and middle voters, known as the "natural platform", attach great importance to independent judgments. It is difficult to operate and predict that it is difficult to discard the insurance.However, he estimates that if Hou Youyi continues to lead, about 500,000 votes of Ke Wenzhe supporters (calculated at 70%of the voting rate, accounting for about 3.6%of the votes) may turn to Hou Youyi, who is more expected.
Du Shengcong believes that for young and middle voters, negative election campaigns, emotional extortion, and Opu (Taiwanese, referring to despicable means) make them bothering them.The elements, including the atmosphere, anger or moved emotions.
"The young man wants the subjectivity, what I want to do, not what you want to tell me. The final movement, mobilization and memory point are likely to be the winning factor of this election campaign."
