Taiwan will hold the presidential and legislators elections on January 13th, and various political parties and many polls will successively on Tuesday (January 2).News/China/Story20240102-1459638 "R = NOFOLLOW TARGET = _Blank> Police Clear Points announced the polls a few days ago. .Most polls show that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party "Lai Xiao Biao" is still a small lead. After the Kuomintang "Hou Kang Bai" is closely chasing, there is a gap between the two before the people's party "Ke Yingbing" lags behind.
However, many experts in polls believe that the 2024 presidential election and the 2000 presidential election election structure is similar. It is changeable and changing. It does not rule out unexpected factors for decades.As for the legislator's election, it is almost half of the three parties, and it will be optimistic that the Kuomintang legislators will grow significantly.
Ling Tao, deputy chief executive officer of the Kuomintang think tank and the National Policy Research Foundation, quoted the polls of ETTODADAY and TVBS on Monday (January 1), showing that "Hou Kang Bai" lagged behind "Lai Xiao Bai" 2.8, respectively.%And 3%; the polls of the Internet thermometer are then referred to the Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Youyi 38.10%of the Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Qingde with 38.11%, and for the first time, it showed 0.01 percentage points in gold crossing.
He emphasized that the election of "Hou Kang Bai" and "Lai Xiao" entered the "hand -to -hand combat"; if the Blue Army continued to return to the Kuomintang, he had the opportunity to cross the threshold of election, and called for the DPP, Realize the rotation of political parties.
The People's Party announced the last wave of inside the polls on Tuesday, saying that "Lai Xiao Biao" supported the duration of dwelling with 27.2%, "Ke Ying Piao" was 26.9%, and "Hou Kang Pai" settled in 26.4%.three.The party also quoted the letter media and QUICKSEEK network polls using the full mobile phone survey to prove that "Ke Yingbing" ranked second.
Huang Shanshan, director of the campaign of Ke Wenzhe, presidential candidate of the People's Party, said that from the television debate for three consecutive days of polls, the support of the three groups of candidates in blue -green and white shows the twist scroll (referring to mutual interwoven), and called for support to support Ke Wenzhe.When young people come out to vote, Ke Wenzhe will win.
Huang Shanshan pointed out that polls were originally a reference tool to allow politicians to review their words and deeds as a reference for governance;It shaped its important results in whispering, rumors, and Opu (despicable ways), including abandoning insurance.
Huang Shanshan's problem of polls is not false. The elections in Taiwan over the years are closely related to the use of polls in various camps.However, the results of the polls by the people's own commissioned polls by the People's Party themselves were also questioned.The Kuomintang has publicly criticized the Huiliu News Network and the Trend Corporation.
Dai Lian, an executor of the Minami Electronics Newspaper, told Lianhe Zaobao, "The main problem is not to add or add mobile phones, but mobile phone polls cannot have an average proportion in various counties and cities like cities.Several polls published by the people's party before are very inconsistent. After weighted, the market and mobile phones have changed from seven or three to one or two! "
"It's like using the golden gold and other substances to create a thing. After not creating one -third of the gold, other substances account for two -thirds? You can't tell me it is because of the work method.What is the relationship between the relationship between the relationship with it? "
The recent polls of the Meilima Electronics News are obviously not good for "Hou Kang Bai", and its polls have also been criticized by the Kuomintang.According to its 101 waves, the support of "Lai Xiao" is 39.6%, "Hou Kang Bi" is 28.5%, and "Ke Ying Bi" is 18.9%."Lai Xiao Bao" led the "Hou Kangbing" gap to about 11 percentage points.
But the Meilimao Electronics News estimates that if the current voting, the voting rate of "Lai Xiao" is 40.6%to 41.8%, the "Hou Kang Bai" is 36.7%to 38.5%, and "Ke Ying Bai" is 20.6%to 27.7.%.
Dai Li'an explained that their survey method is to draw samples from the residential phone call, which is roughly "Lai Xiao Bing" to lead the "Hou Kang Bao".one of the reasons.He analyzed that the supporters of the DPP and the People's Party were more apparent. The Kuomintang supporters were more unwilling to express their positions, even unwilling to interview, and fell into the "silent spiral effect".Therefore, he estimates that the voting rate must be included in the voting records of the past ten years and the evaluation of political party impression, etc., and estimate the above -mentioned specific votes.
You Yinglong, another representative poll expert and chairman of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, plus the speculative model from the past polls, boldly predicts that the voting rate of "Lai Xiao Biao" is 38%positive and negative; "Hou HouKang Bai "is 37 %positive and negative 3;" Ke Ying with "25 %positive and negative 3.
He also particularly emphasized that the polls of all parties flocked out. The polls are currently a complete free market without any control.So how consumers should choose things is his freedom, "but something is good, you have to judge yourself."
He even told this newspaper that as long as the polls of the details of the investigation are not announced, even some online polls have no poll foundation, and there is only the "entertainment effect" at all.
Relevant experts also pointed out that, especially in the last ten days when the polls were not announced, candidates will have their own tricks to conduct favorable operations on themselves. The public must wear a layer of fog and make the most wise choice.
