Yang Danxu: Where did the confidence of the Chinese people went?

Many colleagues in China have recently come to Beijing for vacation and return to the community they have lived. The biggest feeling is that there are fewer Beijingers, quieter than in the past, and even a leisure sense in European countries.She has been asking a question for the past few days: Is China's economy really saying as bad as the outside world?

In the past, the economy surpassed geopolitics and became the most concerned Chinese topic in international public opinion.In China ’s reports on China, bad macro data, downturn stock markets, and crisis real estate markets have frequently seen various newspapers in the near future.

British Economist Magazine pointed out in an article in which a Chinese economy could not be repaired last week that China was the only large economy that was the only stimulating measure with sufficient strength to deal with the global financial crisis.The world economy.In the following 10 years, whenever economic fluctuations are encountered, China will fight for various predictions on economic disasters by reducing credit costs, infrastructure construction, and stimulating the real estate market.

The article believes that in the process, the growth of public and private debt, people's sustainability of real estate glory, and whether the questioning of new infrastructure has increased.China's policy makers are in a dilemma this time. They do not want to see more white phenomena projects or exacerbate real estate bubbles, but the ideal stimulus measures cannot be done enough.

What is more extreme than the media's warning is the judgment of the US President Biden Biden on the Chinese economy.Biden said at a political fundraising event on the 10th that China, which faces economic and population problems, threatens timing bombs in other parts of the world.

Beijing's recent concern for international public opinion, which is represented by Western media, is regarded as a public opinion and cognitive war against China.Chinese official media also described that this is a common routine for American politics and media to sing double reeds to control public opinion.Some officials who have been contacted in private also have such expressions: the risks of China's economy have been excessively enlarged, and a large number of reports of the negative news of the Chinese economy in Western media are to sing down and shortly to block China.

In all fairness, the statement of timing bombs is alarming, and the current Chinese economy is far from collapse. However, since the second quarter of this year, various macro data such as consumption, investment, and exports are indeed lacking.

The official does not seem to be interested in launching a stronger stimulus, which is believed to be related to the need to transform the Chinese economy itself. China should indeed not be pursuing short -term rapid development, regardless of debt leverage, gap between the rich and poor, and real estate bubbles.

But the risk of economic slowdown cannot be ignored.For Beijing, the legitimacy of the CCP's governance is largely from the sustainable development of the economy, allowing the people to enjoy the improvement of the quality of life, which is also a social contract.On the international stage, long -term economic development and vibrant markets are also a necessary foundation for China to continue to play an influence in the international community; it is an indispensable part of China in the competition between China and the United States.

The current dilemma is related to poor external environment, geopolitical tensions, and family wealth shrinking due to the shrinking of the epidemic, but more importantly, the confidence of enterprises and the public cannot be recovered so far.Over the past few months, some policies have been introduced one after another, including the combination of combination of regaining stock markets in the past weekend, but these policies still cannot fully convince the market and transform into confidence that can promote economic growth.

This has a close relationship with the impact of the epidemic.During the three years of the Chinese people, the Chinese people initially trusted and cooperated with Chinese -style epidemic prevention. In the later period, due to the experience of high -pressure prevention and control, the public opinion rebounded, and eventually experienced the great adventure of life and health in the gambling fast cross -peak.In this process, everyone who has experienced ups and downs feels deeply uncertain, and it is difficult to be quickly erased after the epidemic; dramatic epidemic prevention will inevitably damage the official credibility.The declaration of the economy stepped into the Tasci trap step by step.

Hu Xijin, former editor -in -chief of the Global Times, recently pointed out in an article that one of the reasons for the current lack of confidence in the market is that the administrative power is too large, causing demanding grinding and interference in the rule of law in some areas.

The administrative intervention economy is not new in China. The official involved in individual industries with administrative means a few years ago, causing devastating blows to these industries.The randomness and incompetent understanding of administrative forces have also been strengthened in the three -year epidemic.China has taken zero clearance measures, and administrative methods have played a strong role. However, the administrative power is too large, and the problems that are over -used or even in the right place are also highlighted in the epidemic. It is difficult to leave trauma for social psychology.Although the official releases signals that support the private economy frequently, administrative power can always determine the shadow of enterprises and even the fate of the entire industry. If they are lingering, these signals will be difficult to transform into positive expectations for the future.

Since the middle of this year, many economists have shouted, hoping that the official sacrifice to strong revitalization measures, because only strong stimulus can reverse the situation to make the bottom of faith rise, but considering the limitation of resource and negative overflowing effects, 40,000 shots are 40,000.The practice of 100 million yuan (S $ 750 billion) is obviously uncomfortable today.How to restore confidence through strong reforms will be a knot that China must be solved by this economic downturn cycle.