Chen Bo, dean of Wuhan Optics Valley Free Trade Research Institute, pointed out in a joint morning newspaper that the exports rebounded strongly in March, showing that the economic performance of Western countries such as the United States has not "hard landing"The trend of the Russian and Ukraine War is also more optimistic than expected, which may slightly alleviate the pessimistic expectations of China's foreign trade weakened this year.
China's first quarter economic data after comprehensively relaxing epidemic prevention will be released on Tuesday (April 18). The market is expected to have the highest economic growth in the first quarter of this year.5.4 %, official targets higher than 5 %.
Although many recent economic data performance is bright, the analysis pointed out that the main challenges of China's economic recovery are still insufficient demand and unstable expectations, and the annual economy will still be affected by many unstable factors.
The 70 economists surveyed by Reuters surveyed the forecast of the growth rate of China's GDP (GDP) in the first quarter was 4 %, which was greatly improved from 2.9 % in the fourth quarter of last year. It was also the largest since the first quarter of last year.Growth.
The results released on Friday (April 14) also showed that the economist's prediction that the economist's prediction of the first quarter of the economy would increase by 2.2 % from the fourth quarter last year.
The previous two days (April 12), the average forecast of the 12 domestic and foreign institutions surveyed by the Chinese media's financial new investigation was 3.8%, and the forecast range was 3.0%to 4.9%.Economic growth in the first quarter will accelerate.
Yi Gang, President of the People's Bank of China, said in a meeting of the Temprarons of the Group of 20 last week and the central bank governor meeting that the Chinese economy is standing steadily, the inflation has remained low, and the real estate market has changed positively.However, he did not give higher expectations for economic performance because of this, and it is still expected to have an economic growth rate of about 5 % throughout the year.
Niu Li, deputy director of the China National Information Center forecasting department, predicts the economic growth of about 4%in the first quarter, climbed between 7%and 8%in the second quarter, and fell to 5%to 5.5%in the third and fourth quarters. The annual economy was "The trend of low, high, medium, and stable.
Niu Li said in an open forum last Friday that the effect of a stable growth of a stable growth since last year is gradually emerging. Based on the low base of last year, the economic growth rate in 2023 will also show recovery.Sexual growth situation.But he also pointed out that the main challenges of China's economy this year are still insufficient demand and unstable expectations.
Experts: Insufficient domestic demand power, worrying about the risk of currency tightening, increase
The official data released last week showed that the total value of China's import and export in March increased by 7.4%year -on -year, of which export exceeded the expectation of 14.8%year -on -year, ending for five consecutive months.The new bank loan announced in the first quarter of the same period also reached a record high, showing that investment confidence has increased.
On the other hand, in the first quarter, Chinese household bank savings increased by 9.9 trillion yuan (RMB, the same as the same, Sim of 1.9 trillion yuan), exceeding half of the new increase last year.Coupled with the year -on -year increase of consumer price indexes to the lowest level since September 2021, it has caused the market to worry about insufficient domestic demand power and increased risk of currency tightening.
Chen Bo, dean of Wuhan Optics Valley Free Trade Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the export performance last month was far exceeding expectations, and the rapid recovery of the service industry after the impact of the epidemic affected, which made the economy significantly rising in March.Protocolled by this, the first quarter of this year's GDP may be 4 %.
Chen Bo further analyzed that the exports rebounded strongly in March, showing that the economic performance of Western countries such as the United States has not "hard landing".Pessimism expectations.However, he also pointed out that the above situation may change at any time, and the highly unstable international economic and trade environment still puts pressure on exports.
"From the perspective of domestic factors, whether the central bank will cut interest rates at market expectations in the future, and whether local debt that continues to build will explode, it will affect economic recovery.The impact cannot be ruled out. "
Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that the People's Bank of China will maintain a one -year loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) and bank deposit reserve rate (RRR) this year.However, some analysts believe that if inflation slows down, the central bank may reduce LPR slightly in the next few weeks.
(Reporter is Lianhe Morning News Shanghai Special Commissioner)
