Yang Danxu: Will Chinese leaders restart foreign visits?

Early

Point

Jingqiang Xinyun

Yang Danxu

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The news of China's official restarting foreign visits has recently been very arrogant.The Russian Satellite News Agency reported on Monday (September 5) that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan announced on the same day that the Chinese Heads would visit Kazakhstan on September 14.

The Wall Street Journal also quoted sources last month that Chinese leaders are expected to visit Central Asia in mid -September.According to reports, Beijing is preparing for the official attendance of Chinese officials from September 15th to 16th in September 15th to 16th in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit held in Uzbekistan's second largest city in Uzbekistan. At that time, he may meet with Russian President Putin.

If it is done, this will be the first time that the Chinese leaders will go abroad after the crown disease in 2020.The last time the Chinese official went abroad to visit Myanmar in January 2020, and within a few days after the visit, the crown disease spread on the large scale in China.After the epidemic was popular, China implemented a "dynamic clear zero" policy, strictly controlled the border, and the senior officials of China were particularly cautious in face -to -face diplomacy.As of now, among the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee alone, has experienced visits; the Standing Committee of the Politburo has been abroad in the past two years.

In contrast, the frequency of Chinese leaders' visits before the epidemic even exceeds the US President.According to a report released by the Eurasia Group Analyst Neil Thomas last year, before the outbreak from 2013 to the outbreak, the Chinese official average annual visit to 14 countries and staying abroad for 34 days, obviously exceeding him than him.The former Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin also surpassed the average 25 days and 23 days of the United States President Barack Obama and Trump per year.

Although Chinese leaders still start diplomatic after the epidemic, the absence of various heads of state summit will inevitably affect the exchanges between China and the outside world.Especially under the geopolitical environment of the intensive intensive China and the United States and the heating up of the Taiwan Strait, there is no face -to -face communication, which makes it more difficult to build trust.

The outside world had previously focused on the G20 summit held in Bali Island in November.G20 Chairman Guo Indns Indochia revealed earlier that he had invited China -Russia leaders; Indonesian President Zoko also said in an interview with Bloomberg last month that Chinese officials will attend the meeting.Many observers predict that the Bali Island Summit will become the first foreign visit after the epidemic. The first face -to -face meeting may be held during the period of Biden to take office in the president.

However, from the recent news of all parties, it does not rule out that Chinese leaders' diplomatic highlights this fall this fall, which is earlier than external expectations.If Chinese officials are reported by foreign media, which signals will be released in mid -September?

First of all, the upcoming situation of the upcoming CCP has been set.At the end of last month, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided that the 20th National Congress will open in Beijing on October 16.If Chinese officials have gone abroad in the middle of this month, showing that the CCP's senior management has full confidence in the control of the domestic situation, and the important personnel arrangements of the 20th National Congress have been settled, and there will be no unexpected variables before the meeting.

Secondly, Beijing will release signals that strengthen relations with the United States, especially Russia, to strengthen relationships.The G20 of Bali Island is expected to be the first summit for the first time after the epidemic.The possibility of campization is higher.

In the past two years, the United States has actively attracted allies to establish the Anti -China Alliance, while the common interests of geopolitics have gradually brought China and Russia to cooperation in diplomatic, economy, and military.Moscow continued to support Beijing after his visit to Taiwan. In China, China also dispatched the three troops of the Sea, land and air forces for the first time earlier this month, and sent more than 2,000 people to participate in the "Oriental 2022" military exercise held by Russia in the Far East and Japan.If Chinese leaders visit Central Asia and arrange the China -Russian heads of state to meet before the Xi -worship meeting, this will release Beijing to strengthen contact with Moscow and establish a signal of anti -American front.

Furthermore, some optimists believe that the main reason why Chinese leaders have never gone abroad for more than two years are the epidemic situation, and restarting foreign visits may indicate that China will loosen in the epidemic prevention policy.Chinese public opinion has recently set off a discussion around the "retreat to lock the country", showing that the continuous high -pressure epidemic prevention has caused anxiety of Chinese society, and the concerns of affected economy, blocked entry and exit, and restricted exchanges.The fear of going back in the basic national policy.As a result, high -level foreign visits are also regarded as a hope that after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, border management may be loose, allowing civil exchanges to return to normal.

As of Tuesday, China has not confirmed the news of the leaders' visits. What form will Beijing's head of state will be unknown, but there is an old saying in China.It is indispensable.