● Ukrainian war
International Energy Agency predicts that due to US British sanctions and buyers' resistance, from next month, Russia may have 3 million barrels of oil daily.market.Petroleum demand decreased due to soaring oil prices is about 1 million barrels per day.In other words, the international oil market may have about 2 million barrels of lack of supply.
(Paris Composite Electric) The International Energy Agency has significantly reduced the expectations of global oil demand in 2022, and warned that the sanctions suffered by Russia, a crude oil exporter, Russia, may suffer from Ukraine.Make the international oil market facing the largest supply crisis in decades.
In the monthly report released by the International Energy Agency, it predicts that due to the influence of the US and British sanctions and buyers' resistance, Russia may have 3 million barrels of oil from entering the market every day.Petroleum demand decreased due to soaring oil prices is about 1 million barrels per day.In other words, the international oil market may have about 2 million barrels of lack of supply.
Report pointed out that the global energy market is at the crossroads, which may evolve into the largest supply crisis in decades."Although it is impossible to know how the situation will develop, this crisis may cause durable changes in the energy market."
Although only a few countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom are prohibited from importing Russian oil, they are worried about worryingThe reputation is damaged, and many energy companies, traders, shipping companies, and banks also avoid business exchanges with Russia.
The report predicts that Russian oil exports will reduce 2.5 million barrels per day, of which 1.5 million barrels of crude oil and 1 million barrels of refined oil.If sanctions and condemnation on Russia have increased, the situation may further deteriorate.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, crude oil prices soared to a 14 -year high of $ 140 per barrel, but this week has fallen below $ 100.
If the main oil producing country does not increase the output oil market, there will be no shortage of supply
The International Energy Agency will be the global oil daily demand in the second to fourth quarter of this year.1.3 million barrels were repaired; the demand for the whole year this year is expected to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 950,000 barrels compared with previous forecasts.
This means that the average global oil demand in 2022 was 99.7 million barrels per day, which was lower than the level before the crown disease epidemic for the third consecutive year.
The International Energy Agency originally expected that oil demand can be restored this year.
The International Energy Agency pointed out that if the main producer does not increase production, the oil market will be in short supply, but "there are almost no signs that the supply from the Middle East will increase", or there will be significant trade flows.Adjustment.
Although major oil production countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arabian chiefs have additional production capacity, they are unwilling to further open the faucet.Even in Canada, the United States and other oil -producing countries, they cannot fill the gap.
In the monthly report released by the Organization of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Country (OPEC), a Saudi -headed oil output country (OPEC), the forecast of the growth of oil demand this year will remain at 4.2 million barrels per day.
