(Moscow Composite Electric) Russia is internationally isolated, prompting many foreign companies to evacuate, Russian companies are also in trouble, and the Russian economy is facing the risk of being pushed into the abyss.
Foreign companies that have announced the suspension of Russia's business or closing stores include Swedish furniture company IKEA, French Renault Automobile, American Apple company, sporting goods company Nike, HM fashion and luxury group LVMH.Nearly 3 million Russians who work with foreign companies or domestic companies working with foreign -funded may lose their rice bowls.
The chief economist of Russian Investment Bank Revival Capital Donets believes that if there is no government auxiliary, the unemployment rate may exceed 10%.Russia's unemployment rate in January was 4.4%.
For Russia's billionaire Drima Casca, the current situation is enough to remind people of the dilemma of Russia's debt default in 1998, but this time it may be "twice" more seriously than that year.The aluminum tycoon bluntly said on a forum on Thursday: "This crisis will last at least three years and it will be very difficult."
Russian economy shrinks 5.3%in 1998, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Datong is expected to expectThe Russian economy will shrink by 7%this year; Bloomberg's economic forecast will shrink by about 9%, but if facing energy export restrictions, the atrophy may reach 14%.
The ruble has depreciated more than 30%so far this year, which will cause further damage to the family's finances, and the shortage of goods and uncertainty will be pushed to high inflation.Donets said: "Payment settlement and logistics in Russia have not been interrupted, but the price of items has risen, and the inventory will be exhausted within a month or two."
In addition to trying to stabilize the market and organize capital, the Russian government willOutside of the outflow, a "anti -crisis plan" is also formulated to respond. The first supporting measures to help the country's economic adaptation have been approved this week.
Bloomberg Economic Economist Johnson and Olik said: "Early signs showed that this crisis was as serious as the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 for Russia and the debt defaults in 1998.The price of Putin's war will have a considerable impact on the country's economic impact, and it will almost be a deep decline. "
Petroleum buyers avoid buying Russian oil
On the other hand, Western countries have not directly imposed sanctions on the Russian energy industry. However, due to logistics challenges and market concerns, more sanctions will be implemented, so that oil buyers avoid buying Russian oil.
Norwegian Resta Energy Corporation pointed out that without direct sanctions, Russian oil exports will also reduce about 1 million barrels per day. The country's export volume last year was 10.5 million barrels per day.
At present, Russian oil trade is largely paused.Although the shortage of oil supply has increased the price of Crown oil in Beihai to nearly $ 120 per barrel (S $ 163) per barrel, many manufacturers in the European refinery industry have decided to avoid dealing with Russian oil suppliers,
Analysts believe that if the West clearly eliminates the possibility of sanctioning the energy industry, some buyers such as China and India may resume purchases from Russia after the shipping, insurance and payment issues are resolved.
Under the pressure of the United States, the US government considers whether to reduce or prohibit the import of Russian crude oil. At present, Congress is stepping up to promote such legislative measures and discuss how to reduce the impact of this move on global supply and consumers.The White House spokesman said on Friday that he had not made any decisions.
Many foreign companies have evacuated. Nearly 3 million Russians who work in foreign companies or domestic companies working with foreign -funded foreign companies may lose their rice bowls.Russian Investment Bank Fuxing Capital Chief Economist Doneds believes that if there is no government auxiliary, the unemployment rate may exceed 10%.
